MID-ATLANTIC BIAS

Sometimes, Coming Up With A Title For These Things Is Hard

2012-01-31T18:44:00.004-05:00

(This is a non-sports post. But this is also the 10-year anniversary of the worst day in my and my family's life. If you come here for sports, I completely forgive you for waiting until the next post.)

Ten years ago today, my father suffered a stroke. I was a junior in high school. I left home that morning never thinking that it was the last time I would hear my dad speak, or see him walk correctly. At no point during the day did I think, my father is close to death right now.

After school, I dropped my friend Dave off at his house, as I did every day. I walked into his house to the sound of my grandmother on his answering machine. That was the first sign on January 31, 2002 that something wasn't right.

The next message was my mother. She repeated the same thing my grandmother said, "Jason, there's an emergency. You need to get to (the hospital) as soon as you hear this. I remember tossing the CD that was in my hand and, with no indication that I was right, saying to Dave, "It's my dad."

I raced to the hospital from Dave's house. The song on the radio was Rancid's "Time Bomb." That song is forever synonymous with that moment. I yelled at every car in my way and drove much too quickly to the hospital.

Standing at the door to the Emergency Room was my grandfather (mother's). That cinched it that it was my father. I drove my car into a snow bank at the far end of the hospital and ran quickly. My hunch was true.

My mother's friend Linda Thomas, a nurse, sat me on a vacant stretcher and told me, through tears, about my father's stroke. I had no idea, then, what a stroke really was. I knew it made people talk and walk funny. I didn't know why it happened or what it looked like when it did.

My grandfather drove me to Boston, where my father was transported to receive emergency surgery to try to keep him alive. My grandfather, Dean Hess (this being the only time his name will ever appear on the internet in a blog), was and remains either a really great person to be with in times of crisis or the worst. When his close friend and the husband of my grandmother's best friend died, my grandfather stood in his backyard for a while, marveling at how impressive Bobcats were. Not the animal. The bulldozer vehicle. My grandparents apparently picked an ideal day to have a new septic system installed at their house because it gave my grandfather a distraction.

The drive didn't involve much talk about my father. We talked about sports and that was it. It prepared me in no way for what awaited me in the ER waiting room at Brigham and Women's Hospital.

I've never really understood why people cry. For one, why did God decide to have water come out of our eyes when bad things happen? And why does seeing other people cry cause one to cry? Because as soon as I saw my mother: tears. And lots of them. And for a very long time.

After hours of waiting, my mother was told that doctors could not remove part of my father's skull to allow his brain to swell. I don't remember why. The details are in no way important. She was told that his prognosis was not very good and that if his brain swelled very much at all, he would die.

And so, before we left the hospital that night, we said goodbye.

I walked into his room and lost all control. There were tubes feeding tubes feeding tubes. He was not responsive. He was not conscious. And so thus, you talk to, essentially, your dead father. That is something we do as human beings. We encourage our children to talk to people who can't hear them, see them, talk to them, or touch them. This is supposed to be cathartic.

It's not.

I don't remember anything that I said. Not a thing. I don't remember how long I was in that room for. I don't remember anything except how my father looked. Dead.

The last time I had seen him he was sitting next to me on the couch at 6:50 am, watching MTV with me. No headache. No dizziness. Not even a sneeze. The next time I saw him, 16 hours later, and everything had changed.

Ten years later, and my dad is definitely alive. If I were to see him tonight, which I wish I could, he would look very different then he did ten years ago. No tubes. More gray hair. His face looks noticeably different, naturally.

The ten years since that stroke have been incredibly difficult for him. Six months after that stroke he suffered a massive seizure that nearly killed him. What followed was a series of smaller seizures. Therapy became more difficult for him because he didn't see progress and he eventually gave up hope that he'd speak well ever again. His physical therapy afforded him the ability to walk, albeit with a slow hitch. Then, in 2008, my mother, for reasons I'll never understand or accept, told my father that she wanted a divorce.

The last ten years of my dad's life have been more difficult than any decade should be. My mother and sisters have chided me for "making excuses" for him. In my mind, the guy doesn't need any excuses. Everything we take for granted was taken, inexplicably and without warning, from him.

I haven't really talked to my dad in the last 10 years. We talk, but because of the limitations he faces, there's no real substantive feelings expressed from him. Everything he wants to say is there. But it often can't come out. And when it does, it's just a word or two. In a decade, my dad hasn't been able to adequately express how he feels. It confounds me, especially as someone who loves to hear himself speak, how one can live through that.

My intention here is to not bog down your day with my problems. That is not the point. We, as people, often need reminders to not take things for granted. Every January 31st, simply by looking at a calendar, I'm reminded of that. And it bothers me when this is regarded as cliche. A word like "cliche" should never be used to describe awareness and appreciation. The manner in which you wake up one day can be very different from the manner in which you go to sleep that same night, if you even get the opportunity to lay your head down at the end of the day. Your ability to express how you feel, to tell someone that you love them, can disappear in an instant. Just because you got to see someone before they left for work, does not mean you'll get to see them when they've clocked out.

After I post this, I'm going to call my dad, and tell him I love him. It'll be a vastly different conversation from the one I had ten years ago with him.

At Least I'm Not A Wizards Fan

2012-01-13T18:04:00.001-05:00

Between January 7 and February 24, 2007, the Boston Celtics won one game. The team they beat was the Milwaukee Bucks. During that span, the Celtics went 1-22. It was, perhaps, the worst 23 game stretch in the history of the NBA's most storied franchise. And it was brutal to watch. What is remarkable about that stretch is that the Celtics were not often blown out. They were relatively competitive in those games. They did get blown out by the Lakers by 28 and followed that up with an 18 point loss to the Jazz, but there were a lot of 7 and 8 point losses during that painful run.

What I recall from that period was just how much I enjoyed watching the Celtics. When I write that it was "painful" I mean that in the sense of losses. It's never fun to watch your team lose 22 of 23 games. What I enjoyed in watching those games, though, was the effort. It was there. This was a team that was just undermanned.

On January 22, the Celtics lost to the eventual NBA champion Spurs. By 4 points. I remember watching this game in my dorm room in college, as I did the vast majority of those 23 games. Look at this starting lineup mismatch:

Spurs:

Fabricio Oberto

Tim Duncan

Bruce Bowen

Manu Ginobili

Tony Parker

Celtics:

Ryan Gomes

Delonte West

Al Jefferson

Kendrick Perkins

Gerald Green

The Celtics reserves that night included a young (and overmatched) Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair, Leon Powe, and Allan Ray. No, not Ray Allen. Allan Ray.

There was no Big 3. Pierce was hurt. Garnett was a Timberwolf. Allen was a SuperSonic. Rondo's line that night featured 30 minutes of 12% shooting and 3 turnovers. The Celtics leading scorer was Delonte West. The Celtics fell behind the Spurs in the 2nd quarter, but fought back in the fourth, coming within four points of knocking off the Spurs.

One of the silver linings of this 2006-07 season, one which the Celtics finished 24-58 was the upcoming NBA Draft and the promise of a lanky, sharpshooting Freshman from the University of Texas named Kevin Durant. And if not him, there was the big, athletic, Freshman-who-looks-like-a-Vietnam-Veteran from Ohio State named Greg Oden. I was a Durant supporter from the start and became enamored with the thought of the Celtics finishing with the second worst record and having the lottery balls fall their way so that someone else could take Oden first overall and the Celtics could have a future Hall of Famer fall into their laps.

I was sitting in a restaurant in Omaha, Nebraska on May 22, 2007. It was the night of the NBA Draft Lottery and the Celtics had the best chance at the best pick (the second). This was the era before smartphones. I was left to the text messages of a friend and fellow Celtics fan, Matt Minton. Before my meal was put in front of me, I got the message. It was a string of mashed key strokes. It looked like this: lkdajfiodjgiofdjfodjojo. It was and remains the Minton trademark, used to express anger, outrage, uncontrollable excitement, and general extreme emotion. The Celtics did not have luck on their side. They drew the fifth overall pick in the draft. My meal was ruined.

With that fifth pick, the Celtics drafted Jeff Green, an experienced but underwhelming forward from Georgetown. Green was not a Celtic for long, however. Realizing that they were staring down another season like the 2006-07 season, the Celtics decided to give up on their youth by acquiring veteran players hungry for a championship. Gone were Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Jeff Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, 2 first round draft picks, and a second round draft pick. Incoming were Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and a rookie named Glen Davis.

The 2007-08 Boston Celtics were anything but the 2006-07 Celtics. The two teams looked and played nothing alike. The new Celtics were a defensive powerhouse. They were mean. They were physical. And they were winning.

On June 17, 2008, a year after one of the worst seasons in franchise history left the team with no direction and no hope, the Celtics lifted their first Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy since 1986. It was the first title I got to experience. There was jumping, chest pounding, smiling, and tears. And that was just me. There was the epic Kevin Garnett post-game interview. And KG was right. In that moment, anything was possible.

3 1/2 years later, on January 11, 2012, I asked myself if it was worth it. I thought that 2007-08 title would be the first of at least a few. I was wrong. The Celtics would get back to the finals once, but lose in Game 7 to the Lakers. 2010-11 ended with a very quick and quiet second round defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat. The young, dynamic Heat and the aging, banged-up Celtics looked like teams from different eras. Something had to be done, right?

Well, yes. But instead nothing was done. The Celtics tried to acquire Chris Paul, a player who would help them in a marginal way, for a short period of team, and add to the team's youth in no way, but he made it clear that he didn't want to come to Boston. And who could blame him?

Coming into the 2011-12 season, it was clear that there was not the personnel to make this team work, given such a grueling schedule. Add to that a foot injury to 34 year-old Paul Pierce (the youngest of the Big 3) and one could expect the Celtics to get off to a slow start. But, my God, is this slow or what?

On Wednesday, the equally old and slow Dallas Mavericks rolled into Boston for the Milk of Magnesia Bowl. The Readers Digest Festival. The Lawrence Welk Cup. The Celtics of 2006-07 would have beaten the 2011-12 Dallas Mavericks on pure youth. These were two old, tired teams, dragging through sludge. This was ugly. This was the 2011-12 NBA season for old teams.

I expect more of the same for the Celtics. Looking ahead at their schedule, I see some periods that will be an utter struggle. And for a team who finds itself 4-5 (with wins over 4 of the NBA's worst teams) that's not going to be good. From March 11-23, the Celtics will play 0 home games. They will play 8 road games. That's 8 road games in 12 days. From LA (Lakers and Clippers) to Oakland to Sacramento to Denver to Atlanta to Milwaukee to Philadelphia. In late April, they'll play 5 games in 6 days, including a back-to-back that will take them from Miami to a home game against Atlanta, back on the road to Toronto.

The road is an unforgiving place when you're at the end of your career, when your knees are weak, when your feet are ailing, and especially when you don't have a lot of help around you. This season is going to be an unforgiving one for the Boston Celtics. But this season isn't the biggest concern. Next season is.

Where do you go from here if you're the Celtics? Is Rajon Rondo the Point Guard of the future? You don't bring back Ray Allen, do you? And you certainly don't bring back KG, right? And with two first round picks (both of which will likely be mid-round picks), what direction do you go in? Last year the Celtics drafted E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson from Purdue, both veteran college players. Yet, even with a wealth of college experience, the two former Boilermakers are averaging a robust 1.8 ppg. Combined. They can't find the court on a 4-5 team. The year before last, they drafted Avery Bradley. If you were to call Avery Bradley an "abject disappointment," Kwame Brown would get jealous. Bradley has been, in a word, "useless." There is no young foundation in Boston, save for Rondo.

And so that brings us to Rajon Rondo. Rondo has gone from an abysmal shooter to a reluctant one. Next year's starting lineup is going to look a lot different and may even involve two rookies for all we know. What do you do, if you're Boston, about your reluctant-to-shoot Point Guard, with a very friendly contract? Rondo has had plenty of time to become a more willing and better shooter. Neither has happened. Someone will need to score points along with Paul Pierce.

The last area where a team can build for the future is of course through free agency. It's harder in the NBA because, generally, you're not going to find a lot of in-their-prime free agent talents. You'll either get undrafted rookies or veterans playing out their career. The Celtics have made a habit out of signing those guys in recent years. And there will be plenty of them in 2012. But that won't get the Celtics back onto the Boulevard of the Elites. In fact, it'll take them further off course onto Middling, Directionless Drive.

I keep going back to 2007. I keep asking if it was worth it to win that one title. Couldn't the Celtics have built a team around Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Ryan Gomes, and Paul Pierce. Maybe had one more down year, ended up in the lottery, and drafted Eric Gordon, Brandon Rush, or Roy Hibbert? Rondo, Pierce, Green, Jefferson, and Hibbert with Perkins off the bench? It wouldn't have won a title, but it would have been something right?

Or was 2008 the point? Does it seem like it was a mistake because the only championship came so soon? Would it have been better for the Celtics to have lost the 2008 final, and come back in 2008-09 to win the championship? Or is this all just fantasy? I know that answer.

Still, above all else, I go back to May 22, 2007. All that floundering in 2006-07 was for not. All that losing. Playing all of that youth. What did it get? Jeff Green, who now finds himself back with the Celtics, but unable to play because of a heart condition. When I watch the 2011-12 Boston Celtics, it's just not fun. And it's only going to get less fun from here.

The New Hampshire Primary OR Me Talking About College Basketball

2012-01-10T19:26:00.000-05:00

I've been wracking my brain trying to think of blog ideas. My head is filled with frameworks. There's a non-sports idea in there trying to examine why we, as people, live where we live. There's a baseball hot stove post up there. There's a Greg Stiemsma post. There was a BCS National Championship preview (though I was less excited about that because I had already written at length about those teams).

Today, though, because we're at about the halfway mark in the season, you get some college basketball. A little more analysis on the front-end as I try to highlight a few teams who aren't getting the pub I think they deserve.

What follows is how I rank college basketball's best 10, so far in 2011-12. This has less to do with where I think they'll end up than where I think they are today.

10. UNLV (14-2, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 60, 2-2 vs. Top 25)

Losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State. Wins over Illinois and North Carolina. The Wisconsin loss makes sense because they're a matchup problem for most teams if they can dictate the tempo. If you can play slow against Wisconsin, you're probably going to win. If you only know one speed (fast), you're going to have to make the Badgers run. If you don't, they'll lull you to death. Or, if I'm being less dramatic, defeat.

UNLV's win over North Carolina was not some sort of aberration. The analysts said, "Well, UNLV was playing in their backyard (the game was on a neutral court in Las Vegas. The "LV" in "UNLV" stands for "Las Vegas.")." My response? So what! So the Tar Heels played on the road against the Rebels. They lost. Convincingly. Even more convincingly than the 10 point difference.

To the average college fan, the loss to Wichita State might seem like a red flag. That's because the average fan doesn't know how good the Wichita State Shockers are. 12-3 overall. Losses to Temple, Alabama, and the 11th best team in the country, the Creighton Blue Jays. Currently ranked 24th in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings. Only two teams in the top 10 have a better strength of schedule than the Shockers.

UNLV is here because they do everything, offensively, well. They're in the top 31 in the nation in field goal shooting, points per game, rebounds, and assists per game. They're efficient and effective, led by Chase Stanbeck (shooting 46% from 3) and Mike Moser, each averaging over 14 points per game.

Biggest remaining game of the season: This Saturday at San Diego State. A win in front of "The Show" at Viejas Arena should very well catapult the Rebels into the real-life Top 10. San Diego State is just as for real as the Rebels. I expect the Aztecs to win the home tilt. Still, I think UNLV has a chance to be an Elite 8 team this year. With the talent they have, anything short of the Sweet 16 will be a disappointment.

9. Kansas (12-3, SOS: 10, 3-2 vs. Top 25)

The losses came to Davidson, Kentucky, and Duke. Which one is not like the others? The Davidson loss is an outlier. Each team is going to have one of those nights in the course of a season. The Kentucky and Duke losses, well, those make sense.

What puts Kansas in this list is a victory against Ohio State. Second tier wins against Long Beach State, Kansas State, and Georgetown are nice too. Kansas does nothing particularly well. Their offense is perfectly middle-of-the-pack. So is their defense. This is a team that will get by on talent. As long as Tyshawn Taylor, their often troubled, sharp-shooting guard (44% from 3) stays out of trouble, Kansas can find itself in the Final Four.

Biggest remaining game of the season: Monday January 16, at home, against Baylor. This will be the game of January, on paper. Kansas needs to win at home. They'll play again in February in Waco. Until then, a win against an undefeated Baylor team will give the Jayhawks a lot of momentum and vocal support.

8. Michigan State (14-2, SOS: 40, 3-2 vs. Top 25)

Michigan State lost their first two games of the season, to North Carolina (on a boat) and on a neutral court against Duke. Since then, they've lost to no one.

The Spartans were (and in a lot of ways, remain) an unproven commodity. The players are fairly nameless, outside of Draymond Green. The coach though, is not. Tom Izzo was able to keep a young team on track after their season began with two consecutive losses. Since the Duke game, the Spartans have beaten Gonzaga in Spokane, Indiana in East Lansing, and Wisconsin in Madison. They've also gotten strong off of the likes of Central Connecticut State, Missouri-Kansas City, and Bowling Green. But sometimes the most dangerous thing for a young team (or at least for their opponents) is to taste victory. Once you get the flavor of victory on your tongue, it's hard to get it off. Right now, the Spartans have that taste. And no one has taken it off since November 15.

Biggest remaining game of the season: February 11, at Ohio State. We'll find out if they're for real then. Columbus isn't an easy place to win. But if the Spartans still haven't tasted defeat, well, that could be a big game for both teams.

7. Indiana (15-1, SOS: 125, 2-1 vs. Top 25)

I've watched no team this season more than the Hoosiers. And I've loved what I've seen.

If not for the loss at Michigan State, the Hoosiers would be the number 1 team in the country. A buzzer beater win over Kentucky put IU back in the national spotlight. A New Years Eve win over Ohio State helped some people forget about that loss to the Spartans.

Part of the issue for Indiana is that no one knows any of their players. The program has been so far off the radar for the last few seasons. But it appears that while no one was paying attention, Tom Crean was building a powerhouse out of 4 and 5 star recruits.

The Hoosiers' calling card is their offense. 8th in the country in scoring per game. No team shoots it better from 3. And the Hoosiers have one of the best on-ball defenders in college basketball in Victor Oladipo.

The downfall of IU will come off the glass. If they have an off shooting night, they will lose. Plain and simple. The Hoosiers are a subpar rebounding team with a fair amount of size, but not a ton of physicality down low. Indiana played near perfect games against Ohio State and Kentucky. Anything less than perfect and the Buckeyes or Wildcats would have won.

If IU can play perfect basketball for two weeks (past the Round of 32) I think they can win the National Championship. They're really good. I look forward to seeing them hit the road in the Big 10. That's when we'll see if this team really can get to NOLA.

Biggest remaining game of the season: January 15, at Ohio State. The Buckeyes will get redemption. What's going to matter after that game is how the Hoosiers bounce back.

6. Duke (13-2, SOS: 6, 2-1 vs. Top 25)

The losses were to Ohio State in Columbus (in blowout fashion) and at Temple last week.

There's really no need to talk about Duke at length. They'll go as far as they can without being able to rebound. The moment they run into a physical, rebounding team (North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas State), they'll go down. For Duke, their success in March will be about their draw. If they have a Sweet 16 matchup against Kansas State, look out.

Biggest remaining game of the season: March 3 vs. North Carolina. I fully expect the Devils to lose in Chapel Hill. That's expected. A loss at home though will prove the hypothesis, that this team isn't tough enough, true.

5. Baylor (14-0, SOS: 172, 1-0 vs. Top 25)

That one victory was against Saint Mary's. They've also beaten West Virginia and San Diego State. These are all good teams, but these aren't wins like UNLV's against North Carolina or Indiana's against Ohio State and Kentucky.

Baylor is only here because they're undefeated. They haven't had to play any tough road games, save for a trip to Provo (and they needed a buzzer beater to knock off the Cougars). Baylor has played like the richer man's Kansas. They're a team with a ton of talent, but they're not great at anything. They're long and athletic. But they're not big and physical. They're not necessarily quick. There aren't a lot of great ball handlers. They're slashers. They're the sort of team that has to constantly dictate tempo to get where they want to go. And I don't see that lasting for a while. But it's hard to argue with undefeated.

(As a sidebar, Murray State is also undefeated. They have played a weaker schedule than Baylor's 172nd. The Racers have a legitimate shot at an undefeated regular season, but I don't think they're anything more than a possible Sweet 16 team. And even that might be a stretch.)

Biggest remaining game of the season: The next one. Which happens to be tonight at Kansas State. The same Wildcats team who just knocked off the undefeated Missouri Tigers. If Baylor wins that game, the next one will remain the biggest. Can Baylor get to the Final Four? Yes. But anyone can do that. VCU did it last year. Do I think Baylor will get to the Final Four? No. I think they slip up in the second round of the tournament. Their a team that can be beaten who just hasn't been yet. That will come.

4. Syracuse (17-0, SOS: 92, 2-0 vs. Top 25)

Much like with Baylor, I don't buy the undefeated start. The Orange beat Florida (at home) by 4 and Marquette (at home) by 7. Those are by far their best victories. They've played 3 games on the road all season. This is a team that will likely finish the year with only 2 or 3 losses and will receive a number 1 seed. But you're kidding yourself if you think they have the talent to get to New Orleans. They don't. I'm not buying a team from the Big East who can't rebound.

Biggest remaining game of the season: Much like Baylor, it's always going to be the next one. Syracuse's next one is Wednesday at Villanova.

3. North Carolina (14-2, SOS: 196, 2-2 vs. Top 25)

2. Ohio State (15-2, SOS: 156, 1-2 vs. Top 25)

1. Kentucky (15-1, SOS: 224, 3-1 vs. Top 25)

I'm grouping these three together because their numbers for the season are so similar. They're all playing week schedules. They've all lost at least 1 game. The Wildcats are my number one team for a few reasons. Their only loss was on the road, to a top 10 team, at the buzzer. And they beat Carolina. And they have the best interior defense in the country. And the best freshman in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

The Buckeyes find themselves ahead of the Tar Heels because of the dreaded eye test. I've liked watching Ohio State more than Carolina. They look like the better team when they're at their best. The numbers don't back that up at all. North Carolina has the number one offense in the country. They're coached by Roy Williams. They're littered with stars. Ohio State plays good defense, shoots well, and passes well, but that's it really. They're Jared Sullinger (who has found himself injured twice this season) and some really good players, but no real stars outside of him. They're coached by Thad Matta, a marvelous recruiter, but a guy who's never won a title. And Ohio State has the tougher schedule of the two. So call it a limb, but it's one that I'm willing to go out on. And I'm willing to shift my preseason pick. For now, I'll take Kentucky over Ohio State in the title game. But I'm allowed to change that at the 3/4 mark of the season.

Get Lucky Tonight

2012-01-02T17:28:00.002-05:00

Vacations, the Holidays, and generally having some semblance of a life has kept me from enjoying bowl season. That is not a complaint. In fact, it's something I'm happy about. I don't usually find myself watching a lot of bowl games because, well, they're not all that relevant. Don't take this as a complaint about too many bowls. I don't think there are enough. I love that sponsors are so willing to provide colleges with money for playing in an exhibition game. I also love that the law of our nation does not require me, as a vocal fan of college football, to watch whatever the Belk Bowl is.

As I write this brief entry, I have the Rose Bowl Game on. On a 1-10 scale of excitement for this game, I'm about a 3.2. That is the highest my excitement rating has been this bowl season. And to be honest, I'm really only watching because I haven't seen a Rose Bowl Game in at least five years and thought I was due.

Tonight though will be a little different. Tonight is the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State and Stanford play each other. For Oklahoma State, this is an important game because they were kept out of the BCS National Championship Game. They have something to prove. But I'm a little less concerned with the Pokes. I think they're going to get destroyed.

My excitement for the Fiesta Bowl (about a 7.1) has only to do with it being Andrew Luck's last college game. I implore you, NFL fans, to watch tonight's game if only to get a head start on falling in love with the perfect QB. Don't wait until next year when he's starting for the Colts on Day 1, as he should be. No QB as good as Luck should have to sit for "2-3 years" behind any other QB. The Packers wasted years with Aaron Rodgers playing behind Brett Favre. The Colts would be wise to trade Peyton Manning, and give Andrew Luck the car keys on Day 1.

Watch tonight as Andrew Luck carves up the Oklahoma State defense (one of the worst in the country) like a classically trained butcher. Don't worry about the fact that he's not facing a challenge. He's faced plenty of challenges in his career and succeeded. Watch tonight to enjoy and appreciate.

And one more thing: I cannot listen to another person talk about Robert Griffin III in the same breaths as Andrew Luck. They talk about how Griffin III is a wonderful kid, very smart, and very accomplished on the football field as evidence of how he should be the top overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Andrew Luck is all of those things as well. The biggest difference between the two though is that Luck has been running a pro style offense, with a massive playbook, and audible liberties, for years. Griffin III plays in a spread system, in a conference not exactly overflowing with quality pass defenses. Griffin III will be a serviceable enough NFL QB. His ceiling is Donovan McNabb. Andrew Luck is his own ceiling. The sky is truly the limit. Prognosticators tend to get bored with players who are always great in everything that they do, like Luck and become enamored with the new guy, in this case Griffin III. For the Colts sake, I hope that they don't fall into that trap.

2011-12 NBA 66 Game Season Spectacular Preview (A Preview)

2011-12-22T09:59:00.001-05:00

My "dream" of a full, 2011-12 NBA lockout didn't come to fruition. This is unfortunate for college basketball, which is in the midst of a very exciting season, with a huge game (Louisville at Kentucky on December 31) coming up next week.

Now, I don't hate the NBA and have never claimed to. I find the NBA's regular season to be as exciting as combing my hair, cutting my fingernails, and putting on deodorant. It's just something that you have to do. Most of the time, you're not even aware that you're doing it. And only once in a great while will you get a really good style; something that you feel really good about when you leave the house.

Part of the problem with the NBA regular season is that more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, which is kind of absurd. If 16 teams made the playoffs in Major League Baseball, the Washington Nationals and Cleveland Indians would have made the playoffs. Both finished below .500. Having sub-.500 teams qualify for the postseason renders the really good regular season matchups kind of obsolete. Yes it's nice to get excited about a Heat/Bulls or Celtics/Magic game, but ask yourself if you're seeing full effort from every player when they're all certain that they're playoff bound. In those games, maybe you are. Say you are 75% of the time. What happens when there's a Heat/Hornets or Celtics/Bucks game? How low is that percentage?

What I'm getting at and what will assuredly annoy some, is that the NBA's regular season stinks a fair amount of the time. Once in a while you have an exciting matchup on paper and it lives up to it on the court. More often than not though, the Rockets and Hawks are playing and you're just asking yourself, "Why am I watching this? Does Josh Smith really care about the outcome of this game? Does he care as much as I do? I hope he doesn't care as much as I do, but he looks like he doesn't. Oh God, my life is so sad...."

The NBA: Where Self-Loathing Happens!

The NBA recently announced a new NBA League Pass plan, where you can pick five teams, get all of their games, and pay less money. My five (though I am an MLB.TV subscriber, I do not plan on purchasing League Pass)

1.) Boston Celtics

I mean, obviously.

2.) Oklahoma City Thunder

Watching Kevin Durant is something we should all be thankful for.

3.) Los Angeles Clippers

Lob city.

4.) Golden State Warriors

You're guaranteed an exciting game every time out. Or at the very least, a lot of scoring.

5.) Sacramento Kings

Jimmer. Tyreke. DeMarcus. Another team that will be fun to watch under Paul Westphal's offensive gameplan.

A hat tip to Chris Ferreira for pointing out on twitter the error one would make in picking teams like the Lakers, Heat, and Knicks. So many of their games will be on ESPN, TNT, or NBA TV, that you're much wiser using those extra slots for teams who don't get a lot of pub. He took the Pacers who are certainly in my top 10 and are a team that I think will make a big leap forward in 2011-12.

On to the playoffs:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat

2. Chicago Bulls

3. New York Knicks

4. Indiana Pacers

5. Orlando Magic

6. Boston Celtics

7. Atlanta Hawks

8. Philadelphia 76ers

That 8 spot could belong to anyone except for Washington. I think the Celtics age is what lands them in the sixth spot with a tough first round matchup with the Knicks. Ultimately though, I think the Heat run away with the East. I expect a 58-8 season from the Heat. Indiana gives them a little trouble in the second round, taking them to 6 games, but the skill of the Heat will lead them to a first round sweep of Philly and a Eastern Conference Finals dismantling of the Bulls.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Memphis Grizzlies

4. Los Angeles Clippers

5. Denver Nuggets

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Portland Trail Blazers

8. New Orleans Hornets

For all the shifting of players, including Carmelo and Amar'e coming to New York, the West, overall, is still best, especially when it comes to depth. Miami, Chicago, and New York don't have a lot of depth. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Memphis are built on depth. And depth will be key in a 66-game schedule with many back-to-back and a few back-to-back-to backs. I like the top 3 to advance and the Nuggets to beat the Clippers (I love Denver's depth). After that, Oklahoma City and Memphis will play to seven games in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder winning at home.

NBA FINALS

Miami over Oklahoma City in 5. The Thunder get one step closer, only to be run off the court by a hungry, focused Miami Heat team, led by LeBron James.

NBA MVP: LeBron James

NBA Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra

First NBA Coach to get Fired: Flip Saunders

Sidebar:

A few weeks ago, I was challenged by a coworker to list my NBA playoff teams off the top of my head and I said the Washington Wizards would be the Eastern Conference's 8 seed. For some reason, (homerism? high from watching this year's Kentucky team causing me to think John Wall can carry an NBA team?) I thought that Washington was somehow a good team. Two nights later, albeit in a preseason game, they got blown out by the Philadelphia 76ers, who aren't exactly Jordan's Bulls. They're not even Jordan's Wizards.

My thought about depth being key in 2011-12 (actually stolen from Bill Simmons) led me to believe that the Wizards could be a viable playoff team because thye have a lot of players. The inherent flaw in that logic is that to have good depth you also have to have good players. The Wizards don't.

Right away, a statement like that leads people to throw up their hands in the name of John Wall. But I ask of them, what exactly has John Wall accomplished in his career. If I went onto the playgrounds of DC, or New York, or hell, Indiana, I could find you an athletic, 6 foot guard who could play 38 minutes and shoot 5-for-18 from the field. Of course, he might not be as quick as Wall, but what good is quickness when you don't know how to use it. Wall seems to be much too content to take stupid 3s, which has never been his strong suit. He's like a faster Rajon Rondo. Or at least he should be. Instead, he'd rather be the poor man's Allen Iverson. Remind me, how many championships (college, pro, Olympics) did AI win? I'll be waiting here while you look that up. Take your time.

This doesn't fall entirely on the shoulders of John Wall. Lots of blame belongs to GM Ernie Grunfeld, who has built an absurd team that somehow has 10 forwards on the current roster. The team's center is JaVale McGee, who not a lot of fans hear much about, but who has made quiet a name for himself in DC. McGee has shown no recognition of the proper way one should represent himself and his organization. But with nothing else in the system, and no free agents willing to come to a dysfunctional situation, the Wizards are stuck with the immature McGee. And he's what counts for veteran leadership here.

Flip Saunders will be fired before any other NBA coach because it's abundantly clear after two preseason games that this team isn't going to play for him now. They didn't do it last season. Nothing has changed.

NBA Rookie of the Year (a top 5 rookies to watch):

5. Alec Burks- He can't shoot a lick, but he made a name for himself at Colorado for his ability to slash and get to the line. He'll do the same in Utah for a Jazz team that isn't going anywhere except the Lottery.

4. Ricky Rubio- Speaking of inability to shoot....As a playmaker, Rubio will make an already very watchable Minnesota team even more watchable. Look for the Timberwolves to make a run at the 8 spot in the West.

3. Kyrie Irving- Speaking of inability to shoot....Irving is the rich man's Alec Burks, except he's also a marvelous passer. He'll be a bit hidden on a terrible Cleveland team, which could limit his vote count.

2. Norris Cole- Cole is a stat-sheet-stuffer. He'll start the year as the Heat's backup PG, but do not be surprised if he finishes as their starter. He gives meaning to the (fast becoming tired) phrase "ball so hard." The definition of that? Look at his line in this game last year at Cleveland State against Youngstown State.

1. Jimmer Fredette- Okay, this guy can shoot. The Jimmer will put up big numbers for a team no one will watch, Luckily for him, he comes in with the name recognition that a lot of his rookie peers do not and he'll be able to get over the fact that his team is never on national TV.

That's all folks. Before I go though, I would like to congratulate the 2011-12 Miami Heat on their NBA championship. We'll all be rooting for you...

Excitement and Anger

2011-11-29T19:31:00.002-05:00

Two brief thoughts on things that would take more than 140 characters to talk about:

1.) Tonight's Duke/Ohio State game pits two of the most impressive teams I have seen all season. Duke has looked great playing a very tough schedule (Belmont, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, and Kansas). Ohio State has looked great, um, playing Florida? The Buckeyes' schedule has not been very daunting, but they've handled it very well (see: UConn losing to Central Florida as an example of the opposite).

If you read my season preview, you'll know that I picked both of these teams to reach the Final Four, with the Buckeyes winning it all. Trust me, neither team has done anything to indicate that I was crazy in these predictions.

The matchup to watch tonight doesn't involve Ohio State's star Jared Sullinger, or either of Duke's Plumlee brothers. No, I'll be watching the best defensive guard in the country, Ohio State's Aaron Craft, and the most heralded freshman in the nation, Duke's Austin Rivers. This is where I think the game will be won by Ohio State. Expect Craft to swarm Rivers, who has been susceptible to the turnover early on (and susceptible to bad shots). I think Craft finishes the game with 5 steals. And Ohio State comes away with a 9 point victory. And if you, for whatever reason, can't get to the game tonight (9:30 pm/ESPN), don't fret. I think you'll have a chance to see the rematch in early April. I will not be waiting until April.

2.) I often find myself enraged by inconsequential things. Anyone who knows me well, or sits near me at work, knows this. On Saturday, I gave the finger to a man who honked at a stoplight because the woman in front of me didn't start moving quickly enough once the light turned green. The man, a taxi driver, made a point to pull up next to me and roll his window down, staring angrily at me at the next stoplight. I didn't say a word. But I did think to myself, "This guy could just shoot Amanda and me right now." Of course, the satisfaction I felt was completely outweighed by the danger I put myself and my live-in life partner in. But I know that my irrational anger will never change. It's part of the fabric that makes me who I am.

Today, I want to give the finger to a number of pundits, both real and wannabe (like me!). This has nothing to do with traffic lights. Instead, it focuses on the BCS National Championship. You'll recall that a few weeks ago, LSU and Alabama played a tightly contested game in Tuscaloosa that Louisiana State University won 9-6 in overtime.

I enjoyed this game very much. I do not care for the game that Big XII fans call "football," where teams line up 5 wide receivers and have a quarterback throw to one of them, followed by everyone running to the new line of scrimmage, and repeating. Over and over. For 4 hours. Never once stopping to think, "Hey, maybe we should try to slow the other team down." That's not football. I mean, it's football. But Red Grange rolls over in his grave when he watches Baylor play Oklahoma State.

This coming Saturday, the Big XII's two best teams will square off in Stillwater, Oklahoma. And if the host Cowboys of Oklahoma State win, the town criers will gather and scream and beg. Their cause? Not wanting to watch a football game.

You see, LSU is undefeated and, barring a highly unlikely blowout loss to Georgia on Saturday, will assuredly find itself in the BCS Championship in January. The other spot is up for grabs. Most people believe it comes down to Alabama (1 loss, to LSU) and Oklahoma State (1 loss, to something called Iowa State).

Not wanting to see a rematch of a game you did not enjoy is not a proper measuring stick for determining the second best team in the country. Schedules are. Alabama wiped a very good Arkansas team off the field (as did LSU). Alabama barely lost to the best college defense I've seen in over a decade (LSU). Alabama beat a good Penn State team (B.S. "Before Sandusky) on the road. Alabama beat a then ranked Florida team, rather easily, on the road. Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, who (with one game to play) find themselves 6-5. They barely beat Texas A&M and nearly lost to Kansas State. They also blew out teams like Kansas, Arizona, and Louisiana-Lafayette (who are a combined 14-22 on the season).

The thing that separates Oklahoma State and Alabama above all else though is this: 27.3 vs. 8.8. Those numbers are the average points allowed by each team's defense, per game. Guess which one is Alabama.

The town criers will shout too about Oklahoma State's wonder of an offense. And it is very impressive. They really did a great job of scoring a lot of points this season. They averaged 49.8 points per game. Alabama, of course, must have put up some pretty paltry numbers though, because they only scored 6 points against LSU. Yes, the Crimson Tide only averaged a pedestrian 36 points per game.

A great injustice will be done to the University of Alabama if a group of rogue voters decide on Saturday night (presuming an Oklahoma State win, which I don't think will happen anyway) that they want to be the directors of programming for ESPN. The right to vote in polls does not include the right to choose what games you want to watch. I'd love to see Houston play LSU. I know that's unrealistic. I also know that Alabama is better than Houston. In a 1-off game, the Cougars could beat LSU or Alabama. If they played 100 times, though, they'd lose about 99 them. I feel similarly about Oklahoma State's chances. Especially when you consider that their exact offense is derived from the one that Houston runs. And Houston has the better quarterback.

I'll be rooting for either of two scenarios when the final BCS standings are released Sunday night: 1.) Oklahoma State would have lost and LSU would have won or 2.) The people who think they get to choose what games they want to see decide to vote the truly deserving team #2 overall and just leave their TVs off on January 9th. There will be plenty of other people watching a real football game that night.

The Myriad Consequences of Turning A Blind Eye

2011-11-09T19:46:00.005-05:00

This is not about Joe Paterno, the football coach. This is only about Joe Paterno, the person.

This isn't about Joe Paterno's 409 career victories. This isn't about Joe Paterno passing Amos Alonzo Stagg for most games coached in college football. This isn't about anything that happens on the field at Beaver Stadium in State College, PA.

This is about the failings of human beings, across a number of fronts.

And it is about legacies.

I don't need to rehash the story at Penn State. And I only feel it necessary to comment because of the anger it stirs in me.Anger that stretches beyond the actions of Jerry Sandusky. What Sandusky did, over the span of at least a decade, is enough for me to advocate for the death penalty. Thankfully, I know that his prison term, when it comes, will not last very long. He will be handled in an appropriate manner by his fellow convicts. The American justice system will have done its part.

This is about Joe Paterno, the human being. This is about his defenders. This is about people with misguided priorities.

Joe Paterno may very well be a nice man. I know, from watching sports and reading about sports, that he is, in fact, not quite Mr. Rogers. He's also not Hitler. He's somewhere in between, like most of us. Joe Paterno may be a giving man. He may be humble. He may write really nice handwritten notes to friends and give thoughtful gifts to people.

The one thing I know about Joe Paterno is that one day, in 2002, he exhibited horrendous judgement. And for that, he deserves to be removed of his title of Head Coach of Football at Pennsylvania State University. Given the information by Graduate Assistant and former QB Mike McQueary that former coach Jerry Sandusky had raped a young boy in the showers of the athletic facility, Paterno did not go to police. Given the opportunity to prevent further horrific exploitation of children, Paterno didn't go to police. No one did. They allowed a friend, colleague, and alum to carry on. State it any way you would like. But if Paterno (or McQueary, or school officials) had gone to the authorities, dozens of victims may have been spared. Instead, Jerry Sandusky was asked to not bring any children onto the campus. Heaven forbid he rape children on campus when he could do it anywhere else. Out of sight....

I'm beyond disgusted by the failings of Joe Paterno. I don't know why Paterno didn't go to the police. He says that he wasn't told of the "graphic nature" of the incident. He testified that McQueary told him (Paterno) that he saw Sandusky fondling the boy. Was that not enough for Paterno? Would he rather have heard the graphic details?

Today, the winningest coach in college football history announced his retirement, effective at the end of the season. The end of the season cannot come soon enough. No parent should have to send their 18 year old son into the care of a man and an organization who turned away from such actions. We spend a lot of time talking about scandal in college football. Usually a booster giving money to an impoverished kid in exchange for his national letter of intent. And we act like the world is ending. Like lives are truly destroyed by this.

Lives were destroyed by Jerry Sandusky. To the defenders of Joe Paterno, many of them his former players, I ask them to take a moment to examine the scope of this situation. This is not a rogue booster slipping an envelope to an 18 year old kid, his father, or a middleman. This is the guy down the hall. The alum. The former coach. This is a guy with an office in the facility. A guy who was inexplicably on campus as recently as last week. 9 years after Mike McQueary (now the team's WR coach) walked in on him in a shower with a boy. It's disgusting. It's appalling. It's embarrassing.

I've heard a lot in the last few days about Joe Paterno's spirit. I've heard him called "a fighter." I wonder what exactly he is fighting. He made an egregious mistake. Not a football mistake. A human mistake. And he deserves to be punished for it, legacy be damned. Joe Paterno would not be coaching my team this Saturday against Nebraska. And he would not be coaching any subsequent games.

People say that he doesn't deserve that kind of ending. And in a sense, that's true. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves a hero's sendoff. Banquets and bouquets from folks across the Big 10. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves his name on Beaver Stadium. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves one last celebratory game in State College.

Human Joe Paterno deserves none of that.

Not Locked Out: A 2011-12 College Basketball Preview

2011-11-07T20:53:00.001-05:00

If there has ever been a better year for college basketball, I wasn't alive. Or at the very least aware enough. The sport is operating off of two winning tracks in 2011: (And the season gets underway tonight.)

1.) The best talent in the sport in almost 20 years:

-Something strange happened at the conclusion of last season. 3 of the game's biggest stars (Ohio State's Jared Sullinger, Kentucky's Terrence Jones, and North Carolina's Harrison Barnes) all decided to return to school rather than join the NBA. Whether that was to win a title this year or because of the impending NBA lockout isn't really important. What's important is that their back. And their returns are reflected in the Preseason Top 25 as well. 1. North Carolina, 2. Kentucky, 3. Ohio State.

-Outside of returning stars, as is the case every year, an influx of great freshman talent comes into the national periphery this season. Austin Rivers at Duke. Anthony Davis, Marquis Teague, and Michael Gilchrist at Kentucky. Andre Drummond at UConn. James McAdoo at North Carolina. And on. And on. A never ending list of 4 and 5 star talent. And each of those guys is expected to play a huge role on a National Championship contender.

2.) Hey, where's the NBA?

-While the millionaires and billionaires argue about BRI (Basketball-Related Income) fans are left with a void when it comes to basketball. Where do they turn? Well, the answer is simple of course. It's either college basketball or nothing. And because of the endless list of talent in the 2011-12 season, I think more people will watch the regular season than at any point in the last 20 years. So thank you, NBA lockout, for making college basketball better on two tracks this year.

Those of you who have read this blog since its inception (that's just me) know that I rarely ever write an extensive college basketball preview. And this year isn't really an exception. Trying to predict a college basketball season is very hard. In most sports, you have a season that determines something important. College basketball's does not. 68 teams get into the tournament. Some of them are really mediocre. Others are really good. But once the postseason (March Madness) begins, it matters not what you did in the regular season. At all. There's no home court advantage. There's no Best-of-7. Or Best-of-5. If you finished the regular season 31-2, you are not guaranteed a run to the Final Four. In fact, in the second round, you might get face a team that poses stylistic matchup problems for your team. Or you might have to play near their campus. Or you might be playing in front of a hostile crowd, rooting for the upset. 31-2 matters not. Conference championships don't either. It's really all about March.

Now, that doesn't mean we can't enjoy November-early March. There will be a number of great games on the schedule. Must-watchers if you will, at least for the sheer excitement and talent level. Games in December can have rematches in March. And games in December can derail a team's run to be one of the good, lucky, and mediocre 68. Here are 5 pre-March Madness games that are not to be missed:

1. North Carolina @ Kentucky (December 3, 2011)

We had the Game of the Century in college football this past weekend. This could be college basketball's version. Both teams have tough games prior to this tilt (North Carolina against Wisconsin, Kentucky against Kansas and St. Johns). I expect both to be undefeated. If they are, this is the one not-to-miss in 2011-12.

2. North Carolina @ Duke (March 3, 2011)

They play in Chapel Hill in early February, but there's something special about these games at Cameron Indoor. And this will be a special game.

3. Duke @ Ohio State (November 29, 2011)

The ACC/Big 10 challenge brings us this gem and one of the only potential hiccups for Ohio State before they begin conference play. For Duke, it's their first true road game. A potential Final Four game.

4. UConn @ Syracuse (February 11, 2011)

The first of two meetings between the two rivals who should both be ranked in the Top 5 (and very possibly undefeated) when they square off on a Saturday afternoon.

5. Louisville @ Kentucky (December 31, 2011)

Not a bad way to end 2011. This is a big game for Rick Pitino. And that's an understatement. The Cardinals have underachieved with a talented roster for the last few years. Bringing down a lot of people's favorite to win it all would be a huge statement for Pitino and Louisville.

Also of note, North Carolina and Michigan State will play a game on a boat this Friday. The President will be there. Michigan State is not very good this year.

Projected Final Four

(just because it's hard to predict, doesn't mean I'm not going to try)

North Carolina

Kentucky

Ohio State

Duke

In the championship game, I'll take the inside-out duo of Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger over North Carolina's star-studded front court.

Sleeper Four (Four teams outside of the Top 10 today who could be around in early April in New Orleans)

Baylor

Wisconsin

UCLA

Xavier

Oh, and let the NBA take their time. They can take the whole season as far as I'm concerned.

The Game of the Century

2011-11-04T08:10:00.001-04:00

Twas September when last I waxed poetic about my dearest love, that beauty who consumeth so much of my Autumnal Saturdays. Much has changed....okay this is stupid.

Back in September I wrote that Wisconsin, "If they beat Nebraska, will be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January." And while I'm not ruling out a trip by the Wisconsin Badgers to the Big Easy at some point in January, it certainly won't be for the BCS National Championship. Unless they buy some tickets.

Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma, "They're a veteran group who is ready for the big time..." Apparently though, they're not ready for a weather delay and a Texas Tech team who lost to Iowa State by 34 at home on Saturday.

Back in September, I didn't write much about Alabama, save for a comment that it was "highly possible" that Arkansas could beat them. Arkansas lost 38-14.

Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma State would lose to Texas A&M. They almost did. Since then, they've been unstoppable.

Back in September, I wrote that USC had looked "wholly beatable" to that point. And while they had, they sure looked like a top 10 team on Saturday night against Stanford.

In short, I really do know what I'm talking about. I promise this is true. I watch a lot of college football. I know my stuff. I'm just not terribly good at predicting my stuff.

But that hasn't stopped me before....

This Saturday brings us the Game of the Century and what boils down to a National Semifinal (or perhaps the actual championship game). #1 LSU at #2 Alabama. The nation's 3rd ranked defense at the nation's top ranked defense. The nation's 12th ranked offense at the nation's 11th ranked offense. The nation's top defensive player at the nation's best running back. Two coaches with national championships. LSU's current coach at LSU's former coach. Over 100,000 people dressed in crimson and about 5,000 in purple. If you'd like to go, the cheapest of back-row end zone seats will run you $400 each. That's in a stadium that seats about 107,000 people. If you'd like to sit on the 50-yard line, you might have to cancel little Jimmy's college future. Truthfully, a decent seat is going to run you about $1000.

If you watch one college football game this year, watch this one. It's rare that the regular season brings us a true 1 vs. 2 matchup. No matter who you think is better (my opinion in a moment) this is unquestionably a battle between the two best teams in the nation and perhaps the two best teams in a number of years. 8 p.m. this Saturday on your local CBS affiliate. If you're unsure as to what the deal is with college football, you likely live in the northeast. You're also likely not surrounded by very good college football. If you like pageantry, theater, plot twists, suspense, agony and ecstasy, do yourself a favor and empty out your date book this Saturday night. Mine has been empty for quite some time.

Right now, Alabama sits as a 5 point favorite in this game. This is a ludicrous line that should be closer to 2.5. I'd set it at 3. At the most. Both teams are essentially equals. Punishing defenses on both sides of the ball, populated by athletes you'll be seeing in the NFL very soon. Some of whom would be NFL stars now. Alabama's rushing offense is exceptional. LSU's quarterback play is superior to Alabama's. Sort of. In short, I think the offenses are a wash. This game will be won or lost on the defensive side of the ball. And because of that, I like LSU to win this game. Their ability to get to the ball and make game changing plays will define this game. I expect Alabama QB AJ McCarron to have a world of trouble with LSU's front four. And if he can get past the front four, the back seven won't be kind either. I like LSU to win the game 17-13. Every so often, one of these obvious defensive games winds up being an offensive shootout. Kind of like the bizarro version of last year's BCS title game. This won't be that. I see little way that this game won't be the marquee, must-watch game that we've been waiting for. And if you're looking for a player to watch, I'll give you two. One, Tyrann Mathieu (aka The Honey Badger) is a Heisman candidate from the LSU secondary. His ability to get to the ball and make plays is astounding. And if you like absolute freaks of nature (in a good way) look no further than LSU defensive lineman Barkevious Mingo. Mingo is 6'5". He weighs 240 LBS. He runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. Those numbers are correct. And both guys are true Sophomores.

My (Just Past Mid-Season) Power Rankings:

5. Boise State

Even I'm having a hard time making the argument for the Broncos this year. That schedule is nothing short of horrid with most of their games on Versus. And it's made much worse when Boise struggles to beat a mediocre Air Force Academy. That said, the Broncos still possess a great defense and the nation's second best college QB. And a brilliant coach. But I fear that if Boise is able to get to New Orleans, they might not be ready for it after a year of playing the Wyomings and UNLVs of the world.

4. Oklahoma State

I'm just very nervous that they'll slip up against someone before the Bedlam Game (vs. Oklahoma in early December). If I had to guess, I'd go with the game at Iowa State on the 18th. A late Friday kickoff (9:00 eastern). The game before the biggest game in Oklahoma State history. Iowa State has been pesky and has gotten up for big games (see: the Iowa upset. Also: the beating they put on Texas Tech). I'm not quite a believer, as impressive as they've been. The offense is flawless. I wonder how long their defense can keep up the pace though.

3. Stanford

I'm a believer and they've been impressive. I'll take a close win, on the road, against a really good football team over a blowout of a cupcake at home (I'm looking at you, OK State). To the people who said that Andrew Luck wasn't impressive because he threw an interception, perhaps they should reevaluate their criteria for "Great QBs." He was masterful in leading the Cardinal back at the end of regulation and in dismantling USC's defense in OT. Each time I watch him play I fall in love again. And yes, there are other players on Stanford's roster, but I assure you, if Andrew Luck wasn't playing QB, they'd be a 4-4 team. Okay, with that schedule, maybe a 6-2 team.

1a. Alabama

I doubted them earlier in the season by excluding them from the top 5. That was a heinous oversight.

1. LSU

I doubted them in saying that West Virginia would upset them. That was a very heinous prediction.

But I promise you, I know what I'm talking about....

Quarterback Madness 2011

2011-10-01T09:30:00.002-04:00

You may remember (and I pity you if you do) that last year I penned a piece pitting all of the NFL's quarterbacks against each other in a battle of "who would you build your franchise around?" It's not so much a question of "Who's the best now?" And that's important when you're measuring rookies against established veterans.

Well, I want to do this again, but with some fixes. Instead of going with each teams' current starting QB, I'm going to go with the one that each team views as their best QB. In the case of the Colts, that's Peyton Manning. In the case of the Vikings, that's Christian Ponder. For the Titans, I think it's Matt Hasselbeck. The reason why it's not Jake Locker is because there's no chance he's going to start a game this year. For the Vikings, what about Donovan McNabb has led you to believe that Christian Ponder, a four year college starter and Top 15 pick, isn't going to get some starts? And if you disagree with this, I encourage you to tell me so.

The other change is that each QB will be seeded by his team's current offensive scoring output. It'll be like March Madness, just with 32 teams instead of 68. And I'll make fun of people.

Each "region" will be named for aN NFL QB great. There's no correlation between the name of the region and the players you see. In the semi-finals, the winners of the Otto Graham Region will play the winners of the Fran Tarkenton Region. Steve Young plays Warren Moon.

FIRST ROUND

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

1.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)

8.) Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)

They're the same age (Cassel is a few months older). Neither has won a playoff game. Neither has a shining resume. I take Fitzpatrick because it appears as though he's trending upward, while Cassel simply exists. I think Cassel's ceiling has been hit. Fitzpatrick could be the poor man's Drew Brees, which isn't bad at all.

4.) Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)

5.) Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

Earlier this season, after the Jets collapse, all we heard about was how Tony Romo wasn't clutch. Romo quieted those people by playing through the pain of a fractured rib and a punctured lung, leading the Cowboys to their 2-1 record. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler, in the biggest game of his life, sat on the sidelines because his knee hurt.

3.) Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

6.) Matt Hasselbeck (Tennessee Titans)

Sanchez. Mark's ceiling might be Matt Hasselbeck, but he's still 11 years younger.

2.) Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

7.) Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)

If you want to talk about "not even close..." Look Aaron Rodgers is going to win this thing. You know it and I know it. Peyton might never play again and he's only here because the Colts never thought it was important to build for their future.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

8.) Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Gabbert's youth is enticing. His "not really good" is less enticing.

4.) Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins)

5.) Cameron Newton (Carolina Panthers)

Part of what led Newton to two 400 yard passing games to start his career was that he threw the ball a ton. And he wasn't necessarily pretty. This week he managed a game and led the Panthers to victory. If Newton can find a balance between the two, he has every tool to win this thing in a few years. For now, he's certainly good enough to beat Rex Grossman.

3.) Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)

6.) Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos)

Vick is the most dynamic QB in football. And even though he's shown to be a little brittle, Kyle Orton woke up today and he was still Kyle Orton.

2.) Jason Campbell (Oakland Raiders)

7.) Chad Henne (Miami Dolphins)

That either of these guys gets to the Round of 16 is unfortunate for nearly every QB who will lose in Round 1. Campbell by a hair.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)

8.) Tavaris Jackson (Seattle Seahawks)

There is no greater disparity in this bracket.

4.) Phillip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)

5.) Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)

When it worked out that these two faced each other, I was very intrigued. Then I remembered that Matt Ryan has yet to take the next turn in his career. And Rivers is still only 29.

3.) Eli Manning (New York Giants)

6.) Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)

With Manning, you know what you're getting. I think Kolb can be a serviceable NFL starter. Manning already is a serviceable QB. I continue to believe that if Eli's last name was Smith, he wouldn't be as highly regarded as he is. Against Kolb, it wouldn't really matter what his last name was.

2.) Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

7.) Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Do you take the boring, accurate, prototypical QB who hasn't been to the playoffs or the big, oafish, twice-accused of sexual assault, two-time Super Bowl winning QB? That's not really as hard as I thought.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

8.) Sam Bradford (Saint Louis Rams)

Bradford's development seems slightly retarded (I just wanted to type that word in an unoffensive context that would make readers do a double take) this season. Meanwhile, Stafford is the early season MVP favorite in my book. And still only 23 years old.

4.) Colt McCoy (Cleveland Browns)

5.) Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Against most of the other competition here, I'd take either McCoy or Freeman. Against each other, I take the flashier guy. The one who has shown an almost strange ability to make things happen in the clutch. That's Freeman.

3.) Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers)

6.) Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)

I'll take the guy who hasn't taken an NFL snap over Alex Smith.

2.) Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

7.) Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

I'm still not certain that we've seen Flacco's ceiling, whereas with Ryan, I think we may have. Flacco appears to be capable of great passing performances (Weeks 1 and 3 for example) but he's also capable of playing like Andy Dalton (Week 2 for example). Still, Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton. He's an accurate QB with little flash who likely won't be the starter in Cincinnati in 5 years.

THE SWEET (AND IN SOME SPOTS, TERRIBLE) 16

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

1.) Ryan Fitzpatrick

4.) Tony Romo

Look, I love the idea of a Harvard QB just as much as the next guy, but Romo is still the better play. Even if he isn't "clutch." Can you tell I hate that narrative? I really hate that narrative.

3.) Mark Sanchez

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Mark Sanchez, I'm sure, is a very nice young man. He's incredibly handsome and he's a decent QB. Top 15, maybe. Aaron Rodgers is in a class that Mark Sanchez will never reach.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady

5.) Cameron Newton

This gets a little murky now. I think Tom Brady probably has another 2-3 years after this of top level QB play. But he's also in a situation where he has two capable, young backups who may take his job sooner than that, because they're much, much cheaper. Newton is young (22) and has tools that only a few other QBs have ever had in NFL history. He's a faster, quicker version of Daunte Culpepper in his prime, with Warren Moon arm strength, and a Tom Brady smile. Next year, this might be a Newton victory. This year, it's still Brady.

3.) Michael Vick

2.) Jason Campbell

This year, next year, and forever, this will be Vick.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees

4.) Phillip Rivers

I LOVE this matchup. The Chargers, you will remember, drafted Rivers when Brees was still there, having not developed quickly enough for them. As soon as San Diego did this, Brees became an elite QB. As it turns out, they chose wisely with Rivers too. The answer here lies in age. Brees, a Super Bowl winner and NFL MVP, is only 2 years older than Rivers. Until Phillip Rivers wins something other than a regular season game, I want Brees. Unlike the Chargers.

3.) Eli Manning

7.) Ben Roethlisberger

Either of these guys can lose you a game by standing in the pocket for too long. Either of these guys (as they've done a combined 3 teams) can lead you to the Super Bowl. I'll take the guy with 2 rings who's a year younger.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford

5.) Josh Freeman

Freeman, it needs to be said, is a great game manager. He doesn't throw a ton of interceptions and he comes through in the clutch. Stafford, though, is a different class of QB. He looks like he's about to take his game up another level. That level would be the A-level.

6.) Christian Ponder

2.) Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco.

THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

4.) Tony Romo

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Some would say that I overrate Romo, and that may be true. But I do feel he belongs in a conversation of the top 8 QBs in the NFL. He does not, however, belong in a conversation where he beats Aaron Rodgers.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady

3.) Michael Vick

Vick, when healthy is the most dynamic player in the NFL and can change the game in ways that even Brady cannot. The problem with Vick (his fatal flaw....other than a total lack of marketability because he slaughtered dogs) is that he gets hit too much and has not proven to be durable. Some might say, "But Brady is older! Vick still has a lot of good years ahead of him!" Tom Brady is 3 years older than Vick. This is true. That Vick has suffered more diagnosed concussions this season than Brady has in his career, is the issue to me. And that's why Brady advances.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees

7.) Ben Roethlisberger

There's really not a lot of debate here. Brees is a better QB. He might be older than Roethlisberger, but the divide in skill is wider than that in age. And then there's the question of who you'd rather market: The nice, friendly, handsome, family man or the guy who has been twice accused of sexually assaulting women.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford

2.) Joe Flacco

This isn't even close to me. Stafford is more accurate, has just as strong of an arm, and is three years younger. Stafford has also shown a consistence in his short career that Flacco hasn't. Stafford's injury-proneness is a fear, but not enough for me to take Flacco here.

FINAL FOUR

Aaron Rodgers

Matthew Stafford

I've already stated that Aaron Rodgers is going to win this, but it's worth noting that Stafford (albeit with a pretty favorable draw) finds himself here in this group of QBs. He's not there yet. In fact, he's not even close, realistically. But he's more than on pace, at 23 years of age, to truly belong in a discussion with Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Brady is a year and a half older than Brees. Not nearly enough to move Brees past Brady for the age reason. I'm inclined to go with Brady right away because his numbers are better in nearly every way, he's a three-time Super Bowl winner, etc. But as the years go on, I grow to dislike something about Brady more and more. He evokes a certain Alex Rodriguez-esque quality. Like he takes himself a little too seriously. Brees, on the other hand, is an active member of the community, not strewn across the covers of supermarket rags, who is so easy to root for. With Brady, I think he's getting bored with football. I don't see Brees doing that. And so, somewhat hesitantly, I take Brees.

THE AARON RODGERS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers, not yet 28, is the most accurate QB in football. He possesses the things that make each of the NFL's best, great. He's smart like Manning, ruthless like old Tom Brady, mobile enough to make plays happen from nothing, and he's only getting better. Unlike his predecessor in Green Bay, he seems to only help the Packers win, never facilitating a loss with a bad decision. There's no quarterback, or player, I'd rather have on my team in the NFL today than Aaron Rodgers. And to rub salt, here are some of the players drafted before Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft:

1.) Alex Smith QB/49ers-Think they'd like a do-over?

6.) Pacman Jones KR/Titans-The consummate professional.

7.) Troy Williamson WR/Vikings- Yes, him.

10.) Mike Williams WR/Lions- It only took a few years for him to reach his ceiling (middling WR for terrible Seattle Seahawks)

14.) Thomas Davis LB/Panthers- You're forgiven for not knowing who he is.

And then this list, beginning at #16, up to Rodgers at 24:

Travis Johnson

David Pollack-Hey, he has a TV show now...

Erasmus James-Minnesota would like to Erasmus this pick.....

Alex Barron

Marcus Spears-A serviceable player. Certainly the best of this crop.

Matt Jones- He of, QB to WR to unemployed fame. The only targets he's getting now are from police.

Mark Clayton

Fabian Washington

That's at least 13 GMs who should be out of work today for passing on Aaron Rodgers.

College Football: 1/4 Season Recap and Bold Prediction

2011-09-23T09:23:00.000-04:00

Three weeks into the college football season (somehow a quarter of the way there for some teams) and very little clarity has taken hold. Two teams previously thought to have a chance at a National Championship game appearance have thrown themselves out of the swimming pool because of losses (Oregon to LSU and Florida State to Oklahoma). While neither team is now disqualified for a BCS National Championship appearance, neither is in very good shape. Florida State will play one more high profile regular season game (against Florida to end the season). Oregon as well plays one more high profile game (at Stanford in November). Each just needs to keep winning and hope that those above them come out flat one week.

Florida State and Oregon will get some relief on Saturday when Oklahoma State and Texas A&M square off in what boils down to an early season BCS eliminator game (I still think Texas A&M wins that one). In fact, Saturday's schedule could clear a lot of things up. Or muddy the water further. Arkansas will face off against Alabama as they play the murderer's row portion of their schedule (the following week they travel to Arlington, TX to play Texas A&M). A win by Arkansas over Alabama (highly possible) will vault them into the National Championship discussion and could set us up for a huge elimination style game the next week.

But we're not going to talk about the "What if's?". I'm more concerned with right now. Here are my top 5 teams in the country, based on where we sit right now. Who they've beaten. How they've looked.

5. Wisconsin

-They haven't exactly played the 2005 Texas Longhorns thus far, but they've looked great in pummeling some of the worst teams in FBS (UNLV, Oregon State, and Northern Illinois). Wisconsin's biggest test will come in 8 days when they host Nebraska at Camp Randall Stadium.

For Wisconsin, the thing that makes them the most dangerous is their quarterback. As I said in the college football preview, Russell Wilson gives the Badgers something they've lacked for years: a real, living quarterback who can do things. Wilson is the best quarterback in the Big 10 and it's not even close. He's good enough to win games for a Wisconsin team that also has a great defense and a terrific running game. If they beat Nebraska, they'll be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January.

4. Stanford

-Andrew Luck. And also, Andrew Luck.

Not only did Stanford take care of their only early challenge (at an Arizona team that I've grossly overrated), but they did it easily. Luck has been machine-like so far, posting a 67% completion pct, while throwing for 786 yards in 3 games, with an 8:1 TD to INT ratio. You know, just like Andrew Luck. Stanford is off this week before four straight games against the weak links of the Pac 12. They should be 7-0 heading into a game against a USC team that has looked wholly beatable this season.

3. Boise State

-People, as is their wont, will say that the Georgia win means nothing. They're wrong. They'll also say the trouncing of Toledo is nothing to crow about. They're wrong. Boise has faced two opponents this season and dominated them both. And that's all they'll need to do to get to New Orleans as far as I'm concerned. You cannot, in good conscience, leave an undefeated Boise State team out of the national championship game at the benefit of a one-loss any conference team. Not with Chris Peterson. Not with Kellen Moore. Not with the years of success they've had. The BCS is supposed to be about having the two best teams in the country face each other for a championship. If Boise is undefeated at season's end, they're one of those two best teams.

2. Oklahoma

-The offense didn't look particularly swift in beating Florida State on Saturday night. And the defense didn't exactly have to contend with a machine in the FSU offense. But the Sooners looked solid. They got to FSU QB EJ Manuel. They caused turnovers. And they won handily, on the road, something they haven't done much recently. And they did it without Landry Jones playing his best game at QB. The rest of the schedule is a challenge (games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M namely, not to mention the rivalry game against a Texas team who is much better now with Colt McCoy II at QB.). The Sooners are a very good team. They're a veteran group who is ready for the big time. That schedule, though, is filled with big time.

1. Louisiana State

-No one has impressed more than LSU in the first 3 weeks of the season. They trounced Oregon in Dallas and manhandled Mississippi State in Starkville. They've looked like world beaters.

They are not world beaters. There's a formula for beating LSU. It involves spreading the field to throw short. The Tigers secondary is their weakest link. The Tigers dared Oregon to pass, but Darron Thomas is not Joey Harrington. The Ducks tried to attack the deep secondary and got pummeled. The formula for beating LSU will be on display Saturday in Morgantown, West Virginia when the Mountaineers shock a lot of people by beating LSU. Dana Holgerson (and his fabulous hair) has the system best served to beat a team like LSU. Speed and a capable quarterback. Don't be surprised if West Virginia only runs the ball 8 times on Saturday. You don't beat LSU by running the ball. You beat them by throwing it and making Jarrett Lee, LSU's much maligned 9th year senior QB, throw the ball. For now, the Tigers occupy the top spot here. Come next Monday, that won't be the case.

2011 NFL Predictions

2011-09-07T19:19:00.002-04:00

Remember my NCAA preview and it's mind-numbing length? Let's be pithy with the NFL preview. And instead of calling it a "preview" we'll call it "pithy predictions." We've all got things to do.

AFC

East

1. New York Jets

(The defense is still very good and I tend to think we'll see Mark Sanchez take the next step and enter the B-level QB club with guys like Matt Schaub and Eli Manning. And that's pretty scary if you know who Matt Schaub is.)

2. New England Patriots

(Originally my Super Bowl pick, I then remembered they haven't won a playoff game since the Super Bowl loss to the Giants. And this team looks an awful lot like last year's team.)

3. Buffalo Bills

(They will be much improved this year. They could be an 8-8 football team.)

4. Miami Dolphins

(They won't be an 8-8 football team. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

(Surprise: They're very good.)

2. Cleveland Browns

(Surprise: I think they're a playoff team and Colt McCoy will be a big reason why.)

3. Baltimore Ravens

(They're a little old on the defensive side of the ball and a lot boring on the other side. Not a winning formula.)

4. Cincinnati Bengals

(Whatever they're doing is not a winning formula. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

South

1. Tennessee Titans

(Because I'm crazy enough to believe that Matt Hasselbeck has one more inexplicable year in him.)

2. Houston Texans

(I'm not quite ready to put a team that has never made the playoffs in the Super Bowl. Sorry.)

3. Indianapolis Colts

(Not so much because of Peyton Manning's neck. More so because they're "not very good" defensively.)

4. Jacksvonville Jaguars

(Blaine Gabbert-Be warned about how they treat QBs. And you're not even a good one.)

West

1. San Diego Chargers

(They're so much better than the other 3 teams in this division, they shouldn't even have to play them.)

2. Kansas City Chiefs

(Like the Houston Texans, except they actually made the playoffs last year.)

3. Denver Broncos

(I like Kyle Orton. But there's not a lot here to help him.)

4. Oakland Raiders
(I don't like Jason Campbell and there's really not much to help him. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

AFC Playoffs

#3. Pittsburgh Steelers over #6. New England Patriots

#5 Cleveland Browns over #4. Tennessee Titans

#3 Pittsburgh Steelers over #1 San Diego Chargers

#2 New York Jets over #5 Cleveland Browns

#2 New York Jets over #3 Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC

East

1. Philadelphia Eagles

(They're not as good as everyone thinks, but that's just because they're not going 16-0.)

2. Dallas Cowboys

(They're the Cheesecake Factory of football teams. A little bit of everything. Not particularly great anywhere. Very loud.)

3. New York Giants

(They're the Red Lobster of football teams. That's to say, I have no interest in Red Lobster.)

4. Washington Redskins

(They're the "Eating from the dumpster outside of Applebee's" of football teams. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

North

1. Green Bay Packers

(They're better than last year. They happened to win the Super Bowl last year. But will they be hungry?)

2. Detroit Lions

(The greatest team to ever play football despite having no defensive secondary to speak of. The hopes are a little too high.)

3. Minnesota Vikings

(There's no team in 2011 that I'd rather not watch.)

4. Chicago Bears

(I smell a giant disaster coming out of Soldier Field. That should be fun to watch.)

South

1. Atlanta Falcons

(I'm driving the bandwagon. Hope aboard.)

2. New Orleans Saints

(A trendy pick for a team with a stable of unhealthy running backs, streaky wide receivers, and a middle-of-the-pack defense.)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Want to watch a team fall hard this year? Watch the Bears. Want to watch a team buy into their hype only to finish 7-9? Watch Tampa.)

4. Carolina Panthers

(They'll win 5 games. Cam Newton will have a lot to do with that.)

West

1. St. Louis Rams

(Because it won't be anyone else.)

2. Arizona Cardinals

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Kevin Kolb?)

3. San Francisco 49ers

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

4. Seattle Seahawks

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

NFC Playoffs

#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #6 Detroit Lions

#5 Dallas Cowboys over #4 St. Louis Rams

#1 Green Bay Packers over #5 Dallas Cowboys

#2 Atlanta Falcons over #3 Philadelphia Eagles

#1 Green Bay Packers over #2 Atlanta Falcons

SUPER BOWL WHATEVER NUMBER THIS IS

New York Jets over Green Bay Packers

NFL MVP: Phillip Rivers

NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Phillip Rivers

NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Marcell Dareus

NFL Coach of the Year: Pat Shurmur

2011 College Football Preview or How Many Tattoos Can I Get For My Autographed John Jaha Baseball?

2011-08-27T10:55:00.002-04:00

I began last year's college football preview with a bit about how I was not particularly exuberant for the start of the season. I will not begin this season's preview with the same sentiment. In fact, you will see from the over 6,000 words below, that I am very excited for the 2011 season.

We enter the college football season with story lines galore. From Andrew Luck returning for his junior year at Stanford, to Ohio State's fall from grace, to Miami's nostalgia for the days of the "U", to Oregon's quest to avenge last year's National Championship game loss, to Alabama's QB situation, to Brady Hoke taking over at Michigan, to conference realignment.

I'd like to start with Andrew Luck though because frankly, first is a place he should get used to. In April of 2012, barring a tragedy, he'll be the NFL's #1 overall pick. He's the most polished quarterback since Peyton Manning. Impeccably accurate, blessed with a strong arm, blessed with size, and, unlike Manning, as athletic a pocket passer as you'll ever see. In fact, the Manning comparison isn't quite apt, as far as quarterbacks go. He's much more like Aaron Rodgers. Just bigger. And faster. And at this point in his career, a better QB.

To me though, what sets Luck apart is his decision making off the field. You will not read Andrew Luck's name in newspaper clippings (because you don't read newspapers) about bar fights. He won't be taking money from, as former University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson calls them, "jock sniffers." He won't be beating up women. He won't be driving drunk. What he will be doing is attaining his degree, from Stanford no less, in Architectural Design and Engineering. Not Communication Studies. Not Family Studies. Not "Undeclared." No, Luck, a Junior, will be graduating in May with a degree in Architectural Design and Engineering. All while quarterbacking a major college program looking for their first National Championship since 1926 and their third consecutive winning season (all under Luck).

Of course, the loudest story line coming into the 2011 season won't be Andrew Luck's return. It will instead be scandal. Scandals at Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon. I need not rehash any of these stories in great detail. The Buckeyes lost their head coach and quarterback to a memorabilia selling scandal. The Hurricanes are facing major sanctions from the NCAA after a convicted felon confessed to having given dozens of Canes players money and cars while they were playing at the school. And the Ducks recently released a running back recruit who was brought to the school by a shady Texan street agent named Willie Lyles, who confessed to a $25,000 payment to him by the Ducks head coach, Chip Kelly. And yes, that's actually the man's name. Willie Lyles. "Shady" and guys named "Willie Lyles" go hand-in-hand. You'd almost assuredly hear the phrase "smooth talking" used to describe a man named Willie Lyles. Back to business.

The Oregon recruiting scandal will be a bit of a black cloud hanging over the program as they will assuredly contend for a National Championship in 2011. The biggest question marks come in the form of replacing star WR Jeffrey Maehl and revamping an offensive line that got thinner following graduations. The Ducks, though, do return starting QB Darron Thomas and the electric running back tandem of LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, Though the 2011 schedule will be a tough road to hoe. More on that later, though.

Alabama is, without question, one of the best teams on paper in college football. There is one glaring shortcoming though in Tuscaloosa (time will tell if it is a major or minor one): Quarterback. The Crimson Tide lost Greg McElroy to graduation and come into the 2011 season with the inexperienced AJ McCarron and the even more inexperienced Phillip Sims. McCarron is a lanky pocket passer. Sims is a strong armed freshman with some mobility. McCarron is the only of the two with any SEC experience. And it wasn't a very good show, as he came in for the injured McElroy in last year's Iron Bowl and was unable to rally Alabama from behind to beat the eventual National Champions, Auburn. I have a feeling that Alabama coach Nick Saban will go with McCarron initially, hoping to not lose any games (a road test at Penn State looms in Week 2) before eventually turning to Sims out of necessity. I don't anticipate great things from McCarron. Sims could be great. Luckily for Alabama, their defense should be good enough to hide the QB growing pains before the SEC schedule begins in earnest on September 24th against Arkansas.

Brady Hoke is taking over at Michigan. People will talk a lot about this, because it's Michigan and Hoke, San Diego State’s former Head Coach, is a relative unknown to most. They'll talk about his no-nonsense approach. A lunch pail attitude in Ann Arbor. A different kind of Shoelace (Michigan QB Denard Robinson, who, if you weren't aware, plays with untied shoes). Michigan will go 7-5. The more things change....

The other annoying story line that you'll hear lots about is conference realignment. The Big 12 now has 10 teams. The Big 10 now has 12 teams. The Pac-10 is now the Pac12. Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West. Texas Christian is moving from the Mountain West after the season to the Big East. Brigham Young is now a football independent, much like Notre Dame is. Got it? Who's ready for some football?

ACC

Always a boring place to start, but my life philosophy is to always get the tough stuff out of the way first. And if there's anything tougher than staying interested in the ACC, well, it's staying interested in the Big East.

Much like any other year in the Atlantic Coast Conference, it seemingly comes down to two teams: Virginia Tech and Florida State. What makes 2011 different, I guess, is that Florida State is the clear favorite to win the conference and to contend for a National Championship. The Seminoles and Hokies do not play in the regular season, though it appears very likely we'll see them meet in Charlotte/Jacksonville/Tampa/Macon/Wherever the ACC Championship is held this year, in December. Virginia Tech's toughest conference test will be a home game on Octoer 8th against Miami, who at that point in the season may have already imploded. Even having lost starting QB Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech should be able to run the table during their regular season. Which says more about the ACC than it does Virginia Tech.

Florida State's road is tougher than Virginia Tech's and involves a non-conference showdown against the nation's #1 team, Oklahoma. Last year, the Sooners took the 'Noles to the woodshed, beating them in OK by 30. This year, the 'Noles are better and hosting the Sooners. I'll write a little bit about the non conference schedule later, but just know that this is one of two potential National Championship matchups that we'll see in September.

Maryland and North Carolina State are the in-conference "contenders." Maryland brings in former UConn coach Randy Edsall to lead an experienced team coming off of a 9-4 season. North Carolina State is led by coach Tom O'Brien, who may be on the hottest seat in the nation. He'll need to get a lot out of super-recruit Mike Glennon to have a shot at the ACC Atlantic Division title. I doubt it will happen for either.

Atlantic Division (conference records in parenthesis)

1. Florida State (8-0)

2. North Carolina State (5-3)

3. Maryland (5-3)

4. Clemson (4-4)

5. Boston College (3-5)

6. Wake Forest (0-8)

Coastal Division

1. Virginia Tech (8-0)

2. North Carolina (6-2)

3. Georgia Tech (4-4)

4. Miami (4-4)

5. Duke (1-7)

6. Virginia (1-7)

ACC Championship: Florida State over Virginia Tech 28-13

Big East

The Big East does not deserve to be mentioned here. If I'm going to talk about the Big East, I may as well talk about the Sun Belt Conference. Regardless, predicted order of finish and thus, victim in the Orange Bowl, to follow.

1. West Virginia (6-1)

2. South Florida (5-2)

3. Cincinnati (4-3)

4. Pittsburgh (4-3)

5. Louisville (4-3)

6. Connecticut (3-4)

7. Syracuse (2-5)

8. Rutgers (1-6)

Big 12 (The One With 10 Teams)

The Big 12 lost two Northern Division members (and thus, the divisions) to the Pac 12 (Colorado) and Big 10 (the one with 12 teams) (Nebraska). The loss of Colorado hurts like a feather blowing onto your arm in the cool summer breeze. In fact, most people will not notice that Colorado has gone west, so to speak. The loss of Nebraska hurts this conference more though. Nebraska was a traditional Big 8 (the previous incarnation of the Big 12) team and the standard bearer of the conference. Losing Nebraska hurts the Big 12’s credibility in the long-term. In the short-term, it means that Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M don't have to compete with the Husker's strong D. Instead, they can make like the Big 12 does (of late) and have a good ol' fashioned, 4 hour, no huddle shootout every Saturday afternoon.

For a conference historically aligned with option rushing attacks and powerful rush defenses, the Big 12 certainly doesn't look like it is supposed to. The above teams (in addition to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas) have no intention to ground and pound. The Big 12's best teams do it in the air with no huddle offenses, five wide receiver sets, and 400 yard passing days. And the conference features a handful of very good QBs.

If you're going to start somewhere, you start with the Oklahoma Sooners who will begin 2011 as the #1 rated team in the country. The Sooners are led by New Mexico native Landry Jones at QB. Jones has made great strides in his career since taking over for an injured Sam Bradford in a 2009 loss to BYU. In that game, Jones looked like the Freshman that he was. Jones is a lanky, fairly polished passer with the best WR duo in college football in Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills. Jones took huge steps forward last year, passing for 4700 yards and 38 TDs. It’s very likely that 2011 could be a 5,000 yard season for the Junior.

Not to be forgotten about in the Sooner State is 27 year old Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden and his primary target, receiver Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma State was second in the nation (Oklahoma was third) in passing yards in 2010 and that will not change too much in 2011, despite losing their Offensive Coordinator ,Dana Holgorsen, to a head coaching job in West Virginia. Blackmon is a future first round NFL draft pick with great hands and good speed. Weeden is a smart and accurate passer. Smart because he throws to Blackmon. And accurate because, well, he throws to Blackmon.

Further south, down in the Lone Star State, is Ryan Tannehill at Texas A&M, Tannehill, a wide receiver coming into 2010, took over for senior QB Jerrod Johnson last season against Kansas and led the Aggies to the Cotton Bowl, winning 6 of 7 games, including a win in Austin over rival Texas. Tannehill returns in 2011 leading the more balanced (than the Oklahoma kids) Aggies into a season with the highest of expectations in College Station. Tannehill may not be the passer that Jones and Weeden are, but he makes up for that with his mobility and arm strength.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M all enter the season ranked in the Top 10, all expected by their fan bases to win the conference. The Sooners play at Oklahoma State, but host the Aggies. The Cowboys host the Sooners, but play at the Aggies. And, well, you can figure out Texas A&M's scenario (I hope).

The Cowboys have the toughest road, playing 5 conference games on the road. Oklahoma does as well, but the Sooners get the advantage of playing the conference's fourth best team, Missouri, at home. We'll find out very early on which team, between the Cowboys and Aggies, has the inside track to challenging the Sooners for the conference title. OK State and Texas A&M play in College Station on September 24th. I expect an A&M victory. I do not, however, expect an Aggie victory in Norman. Nor do I expect a Cowboy victory over their arch rival. Oklahoma is a notch ahead of both the Aggies and Cowboys defensively. All of these games will be close, but a 51-48 victory is just as good as a 17-14 one.

1. Oklahoma (9-0)

2. Texas A&M (8-1)

3. Oklahoma State (7-2)

4. Missouri (6-3)

5. Texas (5-4)

6. Baylor (4-5)

7. Texas Tech (3-6)

8. Kansas State (2-7)

9. Kansas (1-8)

10. Iowa State (0-9)

Big 10 (The One With 12 Teams)

Taking a page from the Big 12, stylistically (the other thing they've taken is Nebraska), the Big 10 tried to become a passing league last year, seemingly out of nowhere. Michigan State, led by Kirk Cousins had a solid 11-2 campaign. Northwestern, while they finished just a game over .500 became interesting to watch thanks to the passing prowess of Dan Persa. Still, the Spartans and Wildcats are outliers in a league where teams want to run the football. Wisconsin found itself in last year's Rose Bowl thanks to a top 25 rushing offense and a top 25 overall defense, in the classic Big 10 mold. Likewise for Sugar Bowl participant Ohio State. Same story for Nebraska who was top 10 nationally in rushing offense and scoring defense (while playing in the electric, aerial Big 12).

The biggest story line for 2011 in the Big 10, even with the addition of Nebraska, is the fall of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Still, those expecting a precipitous dropoff in Columbus will be left disappointed. The Buckeyes are still loaded with 5 star recruits and even if receiver DeVier Posey and starting running back Dan Herron are suspended for the first four games, the only challenges are a game at a Miami team that may have already given up, and then an October 1st game in East Lansing against Michigan State that I wouldn’t have picked Ohio State to win even with Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel. I expect the Buckeyes to contend. But they’ll be contending for a trip to the Alamo Bowl. Still, a success given where they’re starting.

The best team in the conference in my opinion is the newest member. Nebraska brings one of the nation's best defenses and a spread option run attack that worked very well against the Big 10’s slower defenses at Michigan under Rich Rodriguez. The problem with Michigan was that their defense was terrible. Nebraska's won't be. And the schedule favors the Huskers with only one true road test, at the conference's second best team, Wisconsin, on October 1.

Wisconsin comes into the season fairly under the radar for a team that represented the conference in the Rose Bowl last year and has the highest profile transfer under center. Former North Carolina State QB Russell Wilson left the Wolfpack after last season and now finds himself in Madison. He is without question the best QB at Wisconsin in over a decade. Wilson is fully capable of winning games in the air or on the ground. He's nowhere near as dynamic as Denard Robinson in Ann Arbor, but he's more effective. And with 4 years as a starting QB under his belt, Wilson knows how to play the position at this level. He gives the Badgers something that they have lacked for quite some time: a QB capable of doing more than managing games. Wilson can win them.

Of course, with the Big 10 possessing 12 teams, there's a conference championship game, which sets us up for a possible rematch between the Huskers and Badgers in December. On a neutral field, I like Nebraska's athleticism over the Badgers' physicality. I think Wisconsin wins the regular season game thanks to the home field advantage.. But that won't send them to the Rose Bowl this year.

Legends Division

1. Nebraska (7-1)

2. Michigan State (6-2)

3. Northwestern (6-2)

4. Michigan (4-4)

5. Minnesota (3-5)

6. Iowa (2-6)

Leaders Division

1. Wisconsin (8-0)

2. Ohio State (5-3)

3. Penn State (4-4)

4. Illinois (3-5)

5. Purdue (1-7)

6. Indiana (0-8)

Big 10 Championship: Nebraska over Wisconsin 13-10

Pac 12

Much like last season, I think the Pac 12 is the second best conference in America. This is due in large part to the wide swath of talent. The Pac 12 features three elite teams (Oregon, Stanford, and USC) and a group of teams with potential to contend for a conference title (Utah, Washington, and Arizona). Of course, there are the bottom feeders (Washington State and Colorado). But the top level talent in the Pac 12, especially offensively, is there. And unlike the Big 12 (the one with 10), these teams can play some defense.

Oregon comes in as most people's favorite in the conference and it's fairly easy to see why. Their offense is a marvel to watch with speed at every position, right down to the undersized, super athletic offensive line. The questions for this year are whether both lines will hold up with a handful of new faces being plugged in. And it's a big question. If Oregon's defense can't get quick 3-and-outs, it puts a hole in coach Chip Kelly's intention to keep his opposing defense on the field and tired. And that's the inherent flaw in this style of offense. Your defense becomes your biggest enemy. It's totally overlooked by most, but a great example is Auburn's defense last year. If not for the presence of a transcendent QB (Cam Newton) the Tigers would have been a 3 or 4 loss team. Their defense could not help the offense keep teams on the field. Instead it helped opposing teams keep points on the board. Darron Thomas is good. Darron Thomas is not Cam Newton. And that may be a big problem for the Ducks.

If you're looking for 2011's transcendent player, look no further than the beautiful Palo Alto, California and the previously talked about Andrew Luck. Outside of a lack of premium talent at the skill positions (other than QB), Stanford's potential Achilles heel is the departure of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. However, there are very few (just one) early challenges on Stanford's road to a Pac 12 Championship. There's enough time for the Cardinal to adjust to new coach David Shaw's philosophies. And it's not like Shaw is a new face. He's been the Offensive Coordinator at Stanford for 4 years. Outside of a trip to Tucson on September 17th, the Cardinal do not play a conference contender until October 29 in LA against USC. Of course, the centerpiece game on the schedule comes on November 12 when Oregon travels to Palo Alto. And, as opposed to the 2010 game in Eugene, the Cardinal will be able to hold onto a lead. And they'll win.

So, Stanford is going to go undefeated, right? Well, no. That roadblock on the 29th of October is interesting. See, the USC Trojans have nothing to play for in 2011, but pride. They are not eligible to appear in any polls. They can't play in the Pac 12 Title Game. They can't play in a bowl game. And while it seems senseless to put stock into a team with nothing to play for, it's worth noting that the Trojans are likely the most talented all-around team in the conference and they themselves are led by a potential top 5 NFL Draft pick in QB Matt Barkley. I'd be fascinated to hear the preseason prognostication if the Trojans had something to play for in 2011. But with Lane Kiffin's ego and Matt Barkley likely to leave for the NFL (and wanting to prove himself to be the second best QB in the draft) I think USC plays for the only thing they can get: respect. And nothing would make that mark more than a win over Stanford and Andrew Luck.

North Division

1. Stanford (8-1)

2. Oregon (8-1)

3. Washington (4-5)

4. California (3-7)

5. Oregon State (2-7)

6. Washington State (1-8)

South Division

1. USC (8-1)

2. Arizona (6-3)

3. Utah (6-3)

4. UCLA (5-4)

5. Arizona State (4-5)

6. Colorado (0-10)

Pac-12 Championship: Stanford over Arizona (USC not eligible) 35-21

SEC

College football's national champion has come from the SEC each of the last six seasons. So you'd think, "Why would that change in 2011?" If I'm to look for a reason why, I would say it's because the conference isn't as good in 2011 as it has been in years past. Alabama may be the second rated team in the country, but they're not a sure thing on offense. LSU is a sure thing on defense, but not on offense (and they may be close to losing starting QB Jordan Jefferson as he is under police investigation for a bar brawl in Baton Rouge). Florida has questions at QB and an entirely new coaching staff, including first time head coach Will Muschamp (formerly the D-Coordinator in Austin). Auburn may be the defending national champ, but they are returning fewer starters than any other Division I program this season. And one of those starters, Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, will be impossible to replace, especially with the options available down on the Plains. The job will likely fall to junior Barrett Trotter, though don't be surprised to see super frosh Kiehl Frazier getting snaps behind center at some point in the season. Arkansas was thought to be a dark horse contender, until they lost star running back Knile Davis to a season ending ankle injury. Mississippi State is improving rapidly, but they're a year away. Tennessee is improving slowly and a few years away. Georgia has a good quarterback (Aaron Murray), a desperate coach (Mark Richt), and not much else.

If you noticed that someone is missing (and I'm not talking about Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or Ole Miss), you are right. And if you think there's a reason why they're missing, you're also right.

The missing team for those of you in the dark resides in Columbia, South Carolina. They're coached by a National Championship winning head coach, quarterbacked by a 4-year starter, led in the backfield by arguably the nation's best running back, flanked out wide by the nation's best wide receiver, bring in the nation's top overall recruit onto an already solid defensive line, and have a solid defensive secondary, anchored by cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a potential All-American in his Sophomore season.

The pedigree is certainly lacking from a historical perspective for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks. But pedigree aside, on paper, this is the conference's best overall team, with Alabama not very far behind. Most would point to often troubled Gamecock QB Stephen Garcia as a glaring weakness for the program. However, I don't. Garcia can manage a game pretty well. And he's got two All-American security blankets in RB Marcus Lattimore and the fabulous, majestic, near perfect Alshon Jeffrey at WR.

Contending for a National Championship would be a huge step up for a team that was 9-5 last season (5-3 in the SEC) and played in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, losing to Florida State. What South Carolina has in their favor is a relatively easy SEC schedule. No Alabama. No LSU. Road games at Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. All are winnable. None will be easy. It’s likely that the Gamecocks slip up somewhere along the way. The home schedule is even less of a challenge, with Florida being the only conference contender coming to Columbia. If nothing else, the Gamecocks will be in Atlanta in December as SEC East champions. Who will they play?

Alabama. That's all. I don't really need to write more do I?

East Division

1. South Carolina (7-1)

2. Florida (5-3)

3. Georgia (5-3)

4. Tennessee (2-6)

5. Vanderbilt (1-5)

6. Kentucky (0-8)

West Division

1. Alabama (7-1)

2. Mississippi State (6-2)

3. LSU (6-2)

4. Arkansas (4-4)

5. Auburn (4-4)

6. Ole Miss (2-6)

SEC Championship South Carolina over Alabama 17-14

Mountain West

If you came here looking for me to break down Wyoming's spread offense, you came to the wrong place. The Mountain West as far as I'm considered comes down to 3 teams. Really, just 2. But the Air Force Academy is an interesting matchup for most teams because they still run an option- run offense. I don't think that Boise State or Texas Christian will lose to Air Force, but the Falcons will make it interesting.

No, this is all about one game. November 12 in beautiful Boise, Idaho. This will be the only year that Boise State and TCU are in the same conference. And this game could decide a lot. And "a lot" does not necessarily mean the Mountain West title. I think TCU will be playing spoilers. They will know that they stand between Boise and a trip to New Orleans in January. The Mountain West took this home game away from the Horned Frogs and moved it from Fort Worth to Boise when they defected to the Big East (where they will begin play next season). It was a bad move by the conference to treat the team that brought it so much good football publicity with such disregard. The Big East move was something TCU had to do to compete for BCS bowl berths every year. And on their way out of the office after years of great work, instead of being given a plaque for service, they got handed one last, very difficult, assignment.

On top of the middle finger motivation, TCU also would love to avenge a loss to Boise State in 2010's Fiesta Bowl. The two schools have developed a rivalry despite having rarely played in their histories. Make no mistake, there will be no bigger game in the 2011 regular season than the one on November 12. You'll find no more emotion. No more passion. No more will. In most other cases this season, teams can afford a loss. It seems like that kind of season. This is the exception.

So who wins? Boise wins a brutal, physical, game with an end of game Kellen Moore TD pass, by a score of 24-21. And that makes Boise State 12-0. And you know what that means.

Independents

There are two independents who warrant mention in terms of the big picture of the 2011 college football season. One, Notre Dame, comes in with high expectations. The other, Brigham Young, comes in under the national radar. Both of those things will change fairly early in the season.

For Notre Dame, it seems like every three years they inexplicably appear in the Preseason AP Top 25. People say, "This is the year." I've even seen some experts pick the Irish to play in the National Championship (seriously, people employed by major networks (CBS in this case) making that pick). That won't happen. In fact, it won't even come close to happening.

Last year, Notre Dame finished the regular season 7-5, but won the Sun Bowl convincingly over Miami to wrap up the season at 8-5. This, for whatever reason, has led to the high expectations. Never mind that coach Brian Kelly just settled on a starting QB (incumbent Dayne Crist over sophomore Tommy Rees) this week. Never mind that the schedule poses a number of challenges. Never mind that Crist has done nothing in his career to distinguish himself. It's Notre Dame. And they won the last game they played. Let the hype begin. I think the Irish finish 8-4. Losses to Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and Stanford.

As for BYU, they're not going to come onto the national radar because I expect them to win a lot of games. No, for those unfamiliar with the story, BYU has made itself a football independent (they'll join the West Coast Conference (the one with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's) in basketball) beginning this season. And with that independence comes a contract with ESPN to air most of the Cougars games in 2011. You'll see BYU playing Utah State, Central Florida, and Hawaii (among others) in 2011 on your televisions. And you'll likely think to yourself at some point, "Wait, BYU is on AGAIN???!!!" Make no mistake, the early stages of this agreement will benefit those in Provo more than those in Bristol, as the program looks to schedule marquee games across an entire season in upcoming years. It will be a challenge for the university. BYU will not be a top or second tier team in 2011. But they'll certainly get the TV coverage, which is great exposure for the school (read: LDS faith) as they try to push themselves towards Notre Dame-type status.

The Cougars have a few minor challenges on the road (Ole Miss and Oregon State) and then some major ones (Texas and TCU). The rest of the schedule sees BYU playing only one major program (its arch rival Utah). I expect an 8-4 season for the Cougars. Sophomore QB Jake Heaps ended the 2010 season with 5 of 6 victories and played much better down the stretch, all as a true freshman. The offensive line, especially on the ends, is solid and will keep the young QB upright. The question will be whether Heaps can take the next step and become a top tier QB. If he does, we'll not only be seeing the Cougars a lot in the coming year, but hearing about them as well.

Non-Conference

I've purposely avoided talking about the non-conference schedule above because I believe it warrants its own section. And it gets started very early on.

Week 1:

TCU at Baylor- A tough test for the TCU defense as it goes up against dynamic QB Robert Griffin III. They'll be up to the task. Something to watch: TCU QB Casey Pachall taking over for the departed Andy Dalton. The Baylor defense will not pose a difficult threat, but it'll be interesting to see where his confidence level is. Expect a 100 yard game from RB Ed Wesley.

Boise State vs Georgia- The game is being played in Atlanta, but don't worry, it's a "neutral site game." So what if Athens, GA is 70 miles from the Georgia Dome. Kidding aside, this is as good as a road game for Boise State, which is fine. In 2005, Boise State set itself back years by traveling to Athens and getting taken out back by the Bulldogs. This Georgia team is not as good as that team and this Boise team is better than that Boise team. And it will show. It has to for the Broncos. A loss here would be devastating for the school. They'll win comfortably. At least they better hope so.

Oregon vs. LSU- This game is another neutral site affair, coming to you from Cowboys Stadium. Both teams come in ranked in the top 5, though both come in with question marks. An Oregon loss will essentially take them out of the national title race. LSU can afford a close loss. I've gone back and forth on this game. I'm not quite sure who has the advantage. Oregon should be more motivated. LSU's defense is a world better than the Auburn defense that beat the Ducks in Glendale, AZ last January. Right now, I'll take the Ducks. I don't know that LSU's defense will be in the shape it needs to be to play Oregon's offense. And for the Ducks, they just need to hope they can stop the Tigers a few times offensively. LSU is no juggernaut there, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Unless the Pac-12 is really as inferior as the SEC nation would like you to think. On this night, it won't be. Oregon wins a close one.

Week 2:

Arizona at Oklahoma State- An early season test for the dynamic Oklahoma State offense. They'll dismiss of the Wildcats fairly easily on one side of the ball, but I wonder about their ability to stop Arizona's QB/WR combo of Nick Foles and Juron Criner. It'll be a good test for the Cowboys defense. I like them to win a 45-31 type shootout.

Alabama at Penn State- Someone will say something about how the Nittany Lions are going to lay it all out and win a big one for Joe. They'll be very wrong. Very, very wrong.

Notre Dame at Michigan- The first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. Brady Hoke's first test. Michigan surprises some people and puts a hole in the “Notre Dame for National Championship” movement.

Week 3:

Oklahoma at Florida State- I mean, an absolute mega game. The loser will lose all hope of playing for a championship because of the conference they play in. Oklahoma wins a close one.

Ohio State at Miami- Call it the Scandal Bowl. Also call it a Buckeyes victory.

Auburn at Clemson- Neither team is likely to make a run at New Orleans, but the game deserves mention because of how close Clemson came to beating Auburn last season. They'll come so close this year that they'll actually do it.

Week 4:

LSU at West Virginia- The Mountaineers nearly won last season in Baton Rouge. If they get the job done this season, it'll go a long way towards Big East supremacy, er, legitimacy. West Virginia keeps it close but loses to the Tigers.

Week 5:

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas- This one will also take place in Cowboys Stadium. Unlike the previous two meetings, I think the Aggies win this one and keep their National Title dreams alive.

After Week 5, conference play begins, in earnest. Of course, there are a few rivalry games at the end of the season (Florida State v. Florida, Georgia v. Georgia Tech). You won’t really need to plan your schedule around any of these games.

Non-BCS Bowl Projections

I've never tried this before and it's very likely that I won't predict a single game correctly, but if you're still reading, you likely have very little to live for. So I'll extend your life a little longer. This was much more of a challenge than I expected it to be. Also worth noting to those of you unfamiliar with college football that these are actual bowl games. You’ll also hear people in late December complaining about how there’s too many bowl games. This is because people like to complain about things that affect them in no way at all. Bowl games are good. They allow teams to play one more game and receive a payout from a willing sponsor. If R+L Carriers wants to give a few hundred thousand dollars to the 3^rd place team in Conference USA, why should I complain? No one has ever been tied into a chair and forced to watch the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Let the kids play.

New Mexico Bowl: Arizona State vs. San Diego State

Famous Potatoes Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Southern Mississippi

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: UConn vs. Central Florida

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada

MAACO Bowl: TCU vs. UCLA

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa vs. Ohio

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Colorado State vs. Boston College

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Penn State

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Clemson

Military Bowl: Navy vs. Maryland

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Texas vs. Utah

Champs Sports Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami

Valero Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Houston

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Auburn

Insight Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Northwestern vs. Baylor

Hyundai Sun Bowl: South Florida vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee vs. East Carolina

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Utah State vs. Army

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State

Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Arkansas

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Florida

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. LSU

BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Atlantic

Godaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Temple

BCS

To set up my BCS projections, let’s take a look at our Big 6 conference champions:

ACC: Florida State

Big East: West Virginia

Big 12 (the one with 10): Oklahoma *

Big 10 (the one with 12): Nebraska

Pac 12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

At-Large:

Boise State *

Alabama

Oregon

Wisconsin

Rose Bowl: Stanford over Nebraska

Sugar Bowl: South Carolina over West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl: Alabama over Oregon

Orange Bowl: Florida State over Wisconsin

BCS National Championship: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

In 2007, Boise State and Oklahoma played in the Fiesta Bowl in a classic game, remembered for a hook-and-ladder play for a touchdown late in the 4^th quarter, a Statue of Liberty play for a game winning 2-point conversion, and a marriage proposal. It's also remembered as Bob Stoops' most embarrassing loss at Oklahoma. That year's Sooners team was stacked. Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Malcolm Kelly, Manny Johnson, and Juaqin Iglesias on the outside (all excellent college receivers). Trent Williams on the offensive line, Gerald McCoy at DT, Jermaine Gresham at tight end, etc, etc. Even their kicker, Garrett Hartley, has made a name for himself in the NFL winning a Super Bowl with the Saints. Boise came into that game with future NFL stars, um, Jared Zabransky? Ian Johnson? Jerard Raab?

For one night, the little school, with the blue field, in a small city in the Northwest was better than the blue blood, Midwestern, powerhouse. And it helped Boise State get itself back to respected status following their Georgia debacle two years earlier.

As for 2011 (or 2012 as it were), the question has to be asked, "What are the biggest obstacles to these two teams being undefeated?” For Oklahoma, it's undoubtedly the game in Tallahassee against Florida State. Of course, they'll need to win games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but the Seminoles pose the biggest schematic challenge for Oklahoma. For the Broncos, avenging the loss to Georgia, beating a motivated TCU team, and never becoming complacent (see: Reno, Nevada. November 26, 2010) will be their biggest challenges.

In the game, I'll take the Broncos again. Scoff as the power conferences will, Boise State is the best all around team in the country. In 2007, people chalked up their victory to “gimmicks and tricks.” This time they won't do it with “gimmicks and tricks.” They'll beat the Sooners like they beat Virginia Tech last year. They'll outplay them. Kellen Moore will outplay Landry Jones. The defense will swarm and attack. And Chris Peterson will scheme better than Bob Stoops (again). If it happens, it'll be a landmark moment in college football and a bright spot on what has been a pretty bad stretch of publicity for the sport. Make that a bright, blue spot.

Heisman

The race for the Heisman will be a race for second place. I fully expect, as you can tell, Andrew Luck to live up to the hype and to exceed last year's success.

1. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)

2. Kellen Moore (QB/Boise State)

3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)

4. Landry Jones (QB/Oklahoma)

5. Marcus Lattimore (RB/South Carolina)

Wrap-Up

Forget the Holidays. This is the most wonderful time of the year. September 3^rd can’t come soon enough.

I Appreciate Minor League Baseball on a Much Deeper Level Than You

2011-08-19T18:23:00.002-04:00

(Title is an Onion article. Special prize (nothing) goes to the person who guesses first what the subject of that article was)

I love minor league baseball. In fact, I may love minor league baseball more than I love Major League baseball. I love watching undeveloped (and underdeveloped) young players grow. I like analyzing pitcher's arm actions and guessing who's going to need Tommy John surgery some day. I particularly enjoy watching young hitters who possess some element of patience at the plate. Few things in baseball drive me more crazy than hitters swinging at first pitches and beginning their at bats in an 0-1 hole. I like watching young players draw walks. Nothing bad can come from a walk. I used to not be of this school of thought, but sometimes a walk is even better than a single. You can't get thrown out at second trying to leg out a walk. You aren't going to have other baserunners get thrown out running for home. In fact, if a team were able to just walk in each at bat, never putting ball in play or striking out, that team would never lose. Ever. In fact, their first game would never end. I cannot preach patience enough.

Wednesday, I went to a minor league baseball game in Hagerstown, Maryland to see Washington Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg as he rehabs following Tommy John Surgery last September. What I saw, including a rough 1.2 IP from Strasburg, was incredibly frustrating. Hitters swinging early in counts. Pitchers locating fastballs up in the zone. Terrible coaching on the basepaths (really, on a 50-50 ball in the OF, it's okay to send the runner from second when you're up 8-5 in the third inning). But more than what I saw, it was what I heard that left me frustrated.

Yes, the biggest problem with minor league baseball is the "fans." I consider myself to be a bit of a baseball fan. Accordingly, I feel as though those who consider themselves fans of a game should know at least a little bit about what they're watching. And yet, I never get that feeling at minor league games. People seem to be there for the beer, as though they couldn't get a 12 pack of Yuengling and sit on their decks for the same price as a ticket and one beer. People also seem to be there to act boorish, which is troublesome for a number of reasons.

About a month ago, I dragged Amanda (literally, it was very disturbing) to Bowie, Maryland to see the Harrisburg Senators and the Bowie Baysox, but mainly to see Bryce Harper, the Nationals top organizational prospect and, depending on who you ask, baseball's top prospect. What I encountered at this game was a handful of adults (men and women in their 30s and older) who found it entirely necessary to yell, berate, and mock an 18 year old kid. Screams of "You're worthless!" and "You suck!" rained down on Harper. Boos followed him wherever he went and with whatever he did. People have issues with Harper's seeming lack of maturity. I find it ironic that those same people find it mature to taunt someone who is barely old enough to buy a lottery ticket. I found myself wondering aloud what one particular "fan" would tell his coworkers the next day. "Aw, dudez, you should have seen how I was yelling at that 18 year old kid. Sure he possesses more talent than all of us combined. Sure he's only 18. Sure I paid to see him play. But man, he could totally hear me when I told him he should give his money back to the Nationals after he grounded out. It was awesome!" High fives and fist pounds abound. Harper went 2-4 with 2 doubles in the game. I doubt that the grown ups who heckled him did much better that day at their jobs.

Wednesday night, I got to experience more of this. In abundance in fact. Most of the fan hatred was directed towards "Old Blue." Umpires, especially in A-ball, are by and large very inconsistent, at best. And sometimes even I find myself blurting out "how was that a strike?" or "Where'd that miss?" loud enough for the umpire to hear me. What I cannot stand, however, is the constant chirping on every pitch from fans. And not from children. Grown men. Very grown men. Wednesday night there was a group of senior citizens heckling the home plate umpire (challenging his manhood...classy!) and players in both organizations.

You'll notice that I didn't refer to the Hagerstown Suns or the Lexington Legends as "teams." This is because, as far as I'm concerned, they are not. They are members of an organization. In this case, the Washington Nationals and the Houston Astros. Fans at minor league games, though, do not seem to understand that. They get angry when a pitcher comes out of a game early because he's on a pitch count. They get angry when guys aren't stealing bases or railroading the opposing catcher. And in turn, they make me angry. They make me angry because I go to watch development. I go to see how far along pitchers are in developing anything outside of a fastball/slider. I go to watch hitters learn how to hit. I go to watch and enjoy baseball in a very organic way. I do not go to minor league baseball games to listen to uninformed analysis, listen to drunk people, watch drunk people, and witness unfair treatment of kids, in front of younger kids. The behavior of some adults at minor league baseball games embarrasses me and makes me wonder what fandom will be like when I'm 20 years older.

When I was young, my grandfather took me to a Pawtucket Red Sox game every couple of weeks. This happened for years. He was a shining example of behavior for me. He cheered for the team he was rooting for (the PawSox), never booed anyone, cheered when the opposing team made a good play, yielded to pedestrians in the parking lot, threw out his food containers, wore his seat belt, and drove home safely. He helped instill a love of baseball in me. My grandfather was never the stat head that I am. He never followed every team in the game, like I do, carving out time in his daily schedule to watch the Houston Astros because Jordan Lyles (or his Jordan Lyles equivalent) was pitching. He just really enjoyed baseball. Enjoyed the atmosphere. Enjoyed the effort. Enjoyed the game. And at the base level of my love of baseball is that same feeling of enjoyment. If you take away the BABIP, the OPS +, and the FIPs, you get an appreciation of the game. My grandfather taught me this, whether it was his intention or not. I hope there are some parents and grandparents out there who can do the same for today's young Jasons.

Soccer!!!!!

2011-08-10T16:36:00.001-04:00

Today might not seem like it, but it's actually a pretty huge day in the history of American soccer. At least potentially.

First, NBC has reached a 3-year deal to televise 45 MLS and 4 US Men's National Team (USMNT) games. As part of the deal, NBC itself will air a few regular season and playoff games. The bulk of coverage though will be seen on the Versus network (which is being re-branded in January 2012 and will become the NBC Sports Network). This is big news for the MLS. Previously, their games appeared on the Fox Soccer Channel. And while people criticize the NHL's presence on Versus, I can tell you that more people know where Versus is on their dial than FSC. And I can also tell you that Versus' sports broadcasts are as good or better than ESPN's in many cases. And NBC and Versus will promote MLS in a way that ESPN does not.

Some of you may be confused. You may think, "No, Jason, the MLS disbanded years ago." While that may seem true, it is in fact inaccurate. In fact, MLS is looking at some kind of resurgence (can you have a resurgence without a surgence?") in 2011. MLS has done a lot of things poorly in their 15 years of active play. Remember the Tampa Bay Mutiny? The Miami Fusion? If there's one thing MLS has done, it's expand perhaps too much. It's also done itself a disservice by not marketing itself very well. Having your games buried on ESPN2 on Friday nights isn't going to do much good. But there's lot of good for MLS. Of the 19 teams in the league beginning with First Kick 2012, only 4 will be playing in non-soccer specific stadiums. And each of those teams are on solid footing in the league (DC United, New England Revolution, Seattle Sounders, and Houston Dynamo). Perhaps the best thing that MLS has done is begin to infiltrate markets not generally regarded as soccer hotbeds, but which are proving to be crazy for their teams: namely Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington. Earlier this season, the Portland Timbers hosted the Seattle Sounders in front of a sold out crowd at Jeld-Wen Field. The game was broadcast on ESPN following the Women's World Cup Final. It drew good ratings and has been regarded as a turning point in MLS' history. For once, the league had a storyline: Two teams had a rivalry.

There are two things that MLS needs to survive and thrive: exposure and more talent. It's worth noting that I think the quality of soccer in MLS is vastly inferior to the other international leagues broadcast here in the States. It's very likely that the former need won't come until the latter does. Depending on the financial details of today's deal (undisclosed at this point) and the league's revenue sharing agreements for its clubs, this NBC agreement could help bring that talent to the states. And I'm sure that's something that NBC is banking on. More money means more reasons for the world's best players to come to the US. More rivalries like the one in the Pacific Northwest mean more general interest from the less than average soccer fan, which means higher ratings, which means greater advertising dollars, which means, well, it means more reasons for the world's talented players to choose American club teams. The results of this NBC deal will not take hold fully for a few years. But Major League Soccer is on the right path. Following their current trend MLS can be more than sustainable within the next 5-7 years. It could be a sports staple in this country. The potential is all there. They just need a little assistance from the USMNT.

Speaking of which, what about the other half of what makes today a potentially monumental day for American soccer? Well, tonight, the USMNT has a friendly (aka an exhibition match) against their greatest rival: Meixco. A little less than two months ago, the United States nearly beat Mexico in front of an unfriendly crowd on home soil in the CONCACAF (don't ask what that stands for) Gold Cup Final. A win would have been a pretty big deal. Instead, the US blew a 2 goal lead to Mexico and lost its match 4-2 in embarrassing fashion. A few weeks ago, US Soccer announced that coach Bob Bradley was being relieved of his duties and the following day hired former German National Team player and coach Jurgen Klinsmann to command their ship. The USMNT, under Bradley, may have accomplished more than at any other point in its history. But it was very clear that Bradley had maxed out as coach what his team was going to produce. And his style wasn't truly conducive to long term success. In soccer, you're not going to be successful by not being particularly good at anything. The USMNT wasn't particularly strong defensively and was, at best, uninteresting offensively. And bad, at worst.

Klinsmann has promised to bring more excitement to American soccer, which is like Alaska saying it could afford to bring in more palm trees. He promises to not be so focused on the ridiculous notion of playing white soccer players as a marketing gimmick. Klinsmann will play the players who fulfill FIFA's requirements for national eligibility. It doesn't matter what they look like, what language they speak, or how you say their last name. Gone are the days of Stuart Holden and Jonathan Bornstein getting playing time because there's some sort of notion that soccer will be successful in the US if someone in Iowa can turn on their TV and say, "Aw, he looks like a nice boy." If you're talented, you'll play. If you can score, you'll play. If you can pass, you'll play. It's the way things should have been before.

Klinsmann hasn't had a whole deal of time to implement his system into US Soccer. Tonight is just a very early first step in the process. But make no mistake about it, his arrival is a change. And in this instance, change is good. And this is change I can believe in. I don't expect the US to avenge their Gold Cup loss to Mexico tonight in Philadelphia with a resounding 4-0 victory. But I do hope to see some glimmers of hope, of life, and of inventiveness on the pitch at Lincoln Financial Field tonight. And I expect to see development of the system in the coming year, as we head towards World Cup 2014 qualifying.

We might not realize it today or tomorrow morning, but there may be a day, years down the line, when some soccer scribe looks back on August 10, 2011 and puts into better context than I can what today could mean to American soccer. The sport is not going away. It only continues to gain in popularity on the world's scale. There will come a day when soccer is the third sport in America, behind American football and baseball. As our nation's Hispanic population increases, soccer will become more popular. That will lead to higher TV ratings. That will lead to increased ad dollars. That will lead to bigger TV contracts. That will lead to more money for teams to spend on players. That will lead to the world's best players wanting to spend their prime making bank in cities like Los Angeles, Houston, and Seattle. And finally, that will lead to a higher quality of club level play. The road is clear for soccer's success in this country. The road trip starts today.

Baseball at the 55.556% Mark

2011-07-14T20:21:00.002-04:00

I wonder occasionally if I would blog more often if I were jobless again. For those of you who don't know, this blog was started back in January 2008 as a means for me to fill the hours of my day that weren't spent applying for jobs, focusing on perhaps the (non-human) thing I love the most: sports. As time has moved, this space has become like one of those old toys in Toy Story 3. It sits in its toolbar. Occasionally I'll fire it up and read an old post. But I rarely find myself with the time to compose a piece like my last post (an NFL mock draft). Even something without a ton of research in it takes at least an hour to craft. If I wanted to put together short pieces on sports, I'd call it Twitter, which I already do (@midatlanticbias).

Today though, as baseball began its unofficial and mathematically incorrect second half, I wanted to take a look at the storylines for each team (yes, all 30) as we head into late July, August, and on.

Owning MLB.TV and having a very caring, thoughtful, and understanding domestic partner (like a wife without the tax break) affords me the opportunity, or the joy, of being able to see any team play whenever I want. For instance, I started off my evening with the Blue Jays/Yankees game. At 8, with the Jays up 8-1, I moved to the Twins/Royals game, just as a time-filler before my game of the night, the Brewers/Rockies game at 8:30. On nights like this when Amanda is out socializing, I like to fill my home with the sounds of bats on balls and ex-players who do not understand a lick about the game they played saying things like, "Jeff Francouer is a real good ballplayer," while I yell about the fact that he hasn't had a single-season WAR above 1.0 since 2007. And you know, as annoyed as I get, I love it. Because it's baseball.

Part of being able to see any team play whenever I want means that I've actually seen every team play at least once this season. Yes, I've watched the Astros and Padres. And I'd like to think I know a thing or two. So here's the biggest storyline, or question, by my count, for each team in the final 44.54% of the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Can they keep this up?
They won't all be that vague, but for the Diamondbacks, that's the question. Most people had them in the cellar in the NL West. I had them finishing second. I really like Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy in their rotation. In the lineup, it's really hard to argue against the still only 22 year old Justin Upton. His .293/.375/.506 split is right where you'd expect. He's stealing more bases this year and scoring more runs (a product of hitters behind him performing better than they have previously). The question for Arizona is whether or not one of their other starters or someone other than Upton and Chris Young can overperform in the second half. There's no one in the system who can be their version of Buster Posey, though, so maintaining their first half success might come harder than it did for the 2010 Giants.

Atlanta Braves: Can they catch Philadelphia?
I picked the Braves to win the World Series because of their balance. But they need another bat in their outfield. Colby Rasmus or Hunter Pence could be the game changer for Atlanta. They'd need to likely give up a guy like Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, or Brandon Beachy to acquire either, but doing so very well could propel them beyond the Phillies. So should they sacrifice a promising pitching future for a chance at success this year? In my opinion, yes. I would love to see Atlanta send Teheran and a second-tier prospect to St. Louis for the disgruntled Rasmus. And I think if they did so, they might prove my prognostication correct. Because that bullpen is stellar.

Baltimore Orioles: What happened to their young pitching?
The Orioles fell off the map right around the time Zach Britton and Brian Matusz did. Both of those guys are the Orioles future. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Britton, Matusz, and (the guy I really, almost irrationally, like, Jake Arrieta. They've got to protect the future and ride yet another wave of failure in Charm City. The future is bright enough, so long as they can get those three guys to right the ship.

Boston Red Sox: Can the pitching stay healthy enough?
With Lester and Buchholz on the DL and Josh Beckett having been relatively unseen for the past 3 weeks, combined with Daisuke's short season, the Red Sox rotation is a mess right now. Past Beckett, you've got John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, Andrew Miller, and Kyle Weiland right now. The offense has been great, but should they go through a cold spell, the Red Sox will drop quickly behind the Yankees. They need Lester and Buchholz back quickly.

Chicago White Sox: What is wrong with them?
With that rotation, bullpen, and lineup they have, on paper, you would think they would be a little bit better than the Cleveland Indians. But baseball, like life, is not played on paper. And this team has underachieved mightily. Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski (who, if you've never read him before and are reading this now, you'd be wise to close this tab and open up one for him) wrote a few weeks ago that Adam Dunn is the most boring player in the history of baseball. And, as Pos wrote, the numbers are there. Dunn is striking out like, well, Adam Dunn, but he's not walking as much, and his power numbers totally missing. The Sox have gotten great performances out of Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko, but not much else. They need a guy like John Danks in the rotation and Dunn in the lineup to start performing for them to have a chance at catching Detroit.

Chicago Cubs: Why watch them?
Baseball people (the ones I don't like) talk about Starlin Castro like he's a young Alex Rodriguez. Well, I've watched. He's not. He may be the game's worst defensive shortstop. He gets on-base at a robust clip of 33% of the time. Oh, and the .763 OPS isn't fooling me. Look, I know he's only 21. Five years from now, he may be an elite player (not a shortstop though). Frankly, I don't see it. And so, why watch the Cubs? Well, there's nothing wrong with day games.

Cincinnati Reds: Can anyone pitch?
MLB.TV grants you three "favorite teams" to always have at the top of your game schedule. Mine are the Washington Nationals (which is stupid because I get their games on local TV, but I digress), the San Francisco Giants (because I love watching their pitchers, love AT&T Park, love late night baseball, and really, really love their broadcasters Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow), and the Cincinnati Reds. Now, the Reds are not my "third favorite baseball team." However, they might be my third favorite to watch. Good broadcasting (Thom Brennaman) and one of the game's best offenses. I could watch Joey Votto work a count for hours. Jay Bruce's power is great. Brandon Phillips is a great table setter. And Drew Stubbs, um, strikes out a ton. The Reds should be in first in the NL Central, but aren't because their starting pitching has been atrocious. Edinson Volquez has regressed more than any other pitcher in baseball, based on his talent level, Johnny Cueto is pitching well, but is fragile, Mike Leake is what he is, Homer Bailey, and their fifth starter? Dontrelle Willis. This is a team that needs Cueto to stay 100% and one, or both, or Leake and Volquez to pitch above their heads. So far, as much as I've watched the Reds, and will continue to, I don't see it.

Cleveland Indians: Can they keep it up?
No. Next.

Colorado Rockies: What's up with Ubaldo Jimenez?
Well, here's the thing. Ubaldo Jimenez is what he is. Every year, there seems to be a pitcher who shatters their own ceiling in the first two months and everyone talks about Sandy Koufax. Brad Penny a few years ago. Jimenez last year. Jered Weaver this year. All three of those guys are or were, in Penny's case, good to very good pitchers. But none are truly Cy Young-caliber guys (I'm not a big Weaver fan. I know others will call me crazy, but he gives up too many home runs, and I'm not sure that his low number in half number one can hold up). People keep asking about Jimenez, "When's he going to get back to where he was?" But really, other than the W-L record, how far off is he? He's always walked a ton of guys. His HR/9 totals are higher this year, but not too dramatically. He's a good to very good pitcher. He can have no-hit stuff, obviously. But he's not an ace. And until Colorado finds one, they're not going to get it done.

Detroit Tigers: Who will step up behind Verlander and Scherzer?
The lineup is there. The bullpen is shaky, but serviceable, especially in the AL Central. The starting pitching though, outside of the AL Cy Young favorite Verlander and the erratic but talented Scherzer, is bad. Like, cannot win a playoff series bad. Tiger fans keep waiting for something from Rick Porcello (keep waiting). And if you think Brad Penny is the answer, good luck. In a bad division, they could win a title. In a very good league, they won't get out of the Wild Card round.

Florida Marlins: Will Josh Johnson come back?
A disappointing year for the Marlins, who I thought would be a good 3rd place team and are instead a bad 5th place team. The injury to Josh Johnson combined with Hanley Ramirez's underachievement along with their managerial fiasco have buried them. And so the fans of the soon-to-be Miami Marlins have to wonder whether or not they'll see their ace again this season and whether or not they should. I say no (and think they should sell on him, as highly as possible, now), but opening a new stadium next season, you would think the Marlins would like to have some sort of momentum for 2012. It could be an interesting, way below the radar story line.

Houston Astros: Where will Hunter Pence be on August 1?
This is perhaps the most fascinating storyline and it should play out in the next 12 days. Pence is one of the best players in baseball that no one has ever actually seen play. He can hit to all fields. He plays good defense. He can run. He hits for power. He could be an absolute game changer for one contender. The list of destinations are many for Pence. Atlanta, San Francisco, and Philadelphia make the most sense. On any of the three, he would catapult them into a favorite role, in my opinion. And he'd return a small bounty to a cupboard in Houston that is absolutely bare. When you're the worst team in baseball, you really don't want to have a bottom 5 minor league system. But the Astros do. Each of those three teams possess a certain degree of young pitching talent (a lot for the first two and some for the latter) that could really help Houston. But if I had to make a gut call, I'd say the Astros senselessly hang onto Pence. Which would anger and bore me endlessly. Though at least I'd have a reason to watch the Astros.

Kansas City Royals: How good can Eric Hosmer be?
I watched a Royals game a few weeks after the Hosmer call-up and listened to the announcers talk endlessly about their love of Hosmer. And it's easy to love him. He plays good first base and has a terrific bat. Not to mention, he's a pretty marketable star. The problem for young Hosmer is that there's no one else worth watching right now on that team. Mike Moustakas, another recent callup and former top organizational prospect, has regressed over the course of his minor league career, and will need to switch positions before long. And while Alex Gordon has had a Renaissance, he's still just Alex Gordon. It'll be hard to expect much from Hosmer in the second half, because he's such a young hitter with so little around him. But in the future, he'll be the next Mark Teixiera.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout?
Mike Trout.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Is there any storyline that doesn't involve the words "Frank" or "McCourt" or "Bankruptcy?"
No. There isn't. And it's too bad for Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, and Matt Kemp.

Milwaukee Brewers: Is there any reason to believe they're not this good?
No, in fact, they're better. Zack Greinke has not been very good. His strikeout numbers are off the charts. He's not walking anyone. But he's simply giving up too many hits and subsequently runs. He should be able to fix that. Shaun Marcum has faded a bit, but if he can step it back up, combined with Yovanni Gallardo, the Brewers could rival the Giants for second best 1-2-3. Oh, and they also have a 3-4-5 in the batting order of Braun, Fielder, and Hart. And that's not bad. Oh, and they just added one of the best closers of the last decade to their bullpen.

Minnesota Twins: Can they do what they've done alot with Ron Gardenhire?
That thing that they've done is win in the second half. And I think the answer is yes, if for no other reason than the division they play in. You'd have to expect Joe Mauer to pick it up. And soon they'll be getting back Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Justin Morneau. Don't be too surprised if the Twins win the AL Central.

New York Mets: Will Jose Reyes get traded?
No. And neither will Carlos Beltran. And both of those non-moves, especially the latter, would be mistakes. Reyes' value will never be higher than it is now. And I don't think Beltran's will be either. On a very bad baseball team with very little organizational pitching, those two guys are playing great baseball. Reyes is a potential MVP. He could return two top flight pitchers and one or two mid-to-high tier prospects. And that's exactly what the Mets need.

New York Yankees: Can they tread water while A-Rod recovers from surgery?
Yes, but I don't think it will be easy. In case you've never watched baseball before, Eduardo Nunez is no A-Rod. His defense leaves even more to be desired than A-Rod's. And his bat, well, that's not worth talking about. The thing for the Yankees remains their starting pitching depth. For Boston, the issue is health with their pitching. For New York, it just wasn't good to begin with. CC is great. Phillip Hughes is fine. So is AJ Burnett. But those guys are both 3-4 starters. And after them, there's nothing. So the Yankees need offensive production. Without it, they could be in a bit of trouble.

Oakland Athletics: When does Moneyball come out?
Seriously, if you're looking for me to come up with some grand story line for the Oakland A's, I've got nothing for you. Their pitching is enjoyable to watch. I like Trevor Cahill a lot. Gio Gonzalez is fine. Their offense is putrid, though. And their best pitcher, Brett Anderson, just found himself under the knife receiving Tommy John surgery. As if he hadn't missed enough time over the past few years. Your best bet for the Oakland A's is following pitcher Brandon McCarthy on twitter at @B__McCarthy. And yes, that's two underscores.

Philadelphia Phillies: Do they even need Roy Oswalt?
Need? No. Would it be nice to have him around in October? Certainly. I think he'll be there. I'd imagine they're being extra careful with him because, well, why not? They're great. Their top 3 starting pitchers are so far ahead of whatever 1-2-3 is the second best in baseball, you may as well be comparing the 1927 New York Yankees lineup to the 2011 Oakland Athletics lineup. If Halladay isn't your Cy Young winner, it's Hamels. And if Hamels isn't, well, Cliff Lee is capable of near perfection every single time he pitches. The Phillies will be next to impossible to beat in a playoff series. The only question is whether they'll get there. And I think even if Atlanta wins the East, Philly will win the wild card. And if Oswalt is healthy then, they won't be stopped.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they keep this up?
Of course not. Don't be stupid. But, they're definitely on the up. Whereas last year, the Padres played above their heads all year long, and this year, the Indians are, I don't see Pittsburgh dropping off next year like San Diego did this year and Cleveland assuredly will next year. The Pirates rotation is not what an expert would call "good." But it's serviceable. Their lineup has some bright spots (see the outstanding Andrew McCutchen) but they're not the Cincinnati Reds. And their bullpen is good, but bullpens don't win games, they lose them. Next year, the Pirates will have developed further. There's not a ton of high system talent right now, but that will come down the line with Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Gerritt Cole and others. Until then, I hope the Pirates fans keep going to games and keep enjoying this team before a ticket to beautiful PNC is a difficult buy.

San Diego Padres: Much like Hunter Pence, where will Heath Bell be pitching on August 1?
The Padres will trade Bell. I don't think that Bell is quite as good as all of his success would have you believe. His fastball is very good. But that's about it. He's hittable. I'd guess he'll wind up in Texas or Detroit.

San Francisco Giants: Can they win the World Series without Buster Posey?
As good as their pitching is, their lineup is just as bad without Posey. As much as Atlanta needs a guy like Rasmus or Pence, San Francisco needs a Pence or Carlos Beltran. They need someone to produce something in that lineup. Pence would be great in San Francisco. His power would drop, but he'd become a doubles machine, while playing good defensive outfield. Put it this way, if the Giants don't make a major offensive move, they might win the NL West. But that's the only banner they'll hang for 2011.

Seattle Mariners: Is Michael Pineda going to decline in the second half?
Probably. But you'd still have to be impressed with him. I know I have. His starts have become near must-watches for me. I love his effortlessness. Love his fastball. Love that he has a near-1.00 WHIP. And I especially love that he's only 22. So if he starts giving up more long balls and walking a guy or two more, don't fret M's fans. For his first full season in the Major Leagues he's been a huge success. Consider the Mariners the AL version of the Pirates. With Felix Hernandez.

St. Louis Cardinals: How in the world are they going to win the Central?
They're not, overzealous Cardinals fans. The pitching isn't any good. The bullpen isn't either. Yes, they have Pujols, Holliday, and the (sure to slump) Berkman in the lineup, but they're way behind Milwaukee in talent. And I just really dislike Tony LaRussa. A lot.

Tampa Bay Rays: Can they catch the Yankees and Red Sox?
Well, the pitching is probably good enough to get them there. James Shields has been nothing short of a revelation this year, pitching like Jack Morris. David Price is still David Price. Jeff Niemann has pitched well of late. The offense, though, isn't good enough. Ten years from now, someone will say, "Former All-star Matt Joyce has announced his retirement...." and I'll think, "MATT JOYCE WAS AN ALL-STAR???!!!" Snark aside, if you're looking for Matt Joyce to carry your offense, you may as well be the Oakland Athletics (no, seriously, when does Moneyball come out?). I long for the day that Andrew Friedman gives up on BJ Upton. In short, there's just not a lot of good stuff in that Tampa lineup. They're kind of boring. And boring usually means "not productive." Certainly not productive enough to win the AL East.

Texas Rangers: Is that starting rotation really good enough to win a pennant?
No, but that offense certainly is. The Rangers won the AL pennant last year. This year's offense is better. The addition of Adrian Beltre has improved their lineup from very good to very gooder. If Ian Kinsler could figure out how to hit on the road, they'd probably stretch their small, one game lead over the Angels. I don't think LA is a threat. So long as guys like Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison keep on doing whatever it is that they're doing.

Toronto Blue Jays: How good could they be with Roy Halladay?
I think they could be the favorite in the AL East. I realize that one pitcher does not completely change a team, but this team desperately needs a rock at the top of the rotation. Ricky Romero is a very good number 2 starter who is their ace. Beyond Romero, there's not a lot of intimidating stuff. But their lineup is great, anchored by the AL MVP, Jose Bautista, who is proving every one of his critics wrong, all in the face of baseless and, frankly, stupid steroid accusations. How dare he be good? Outside of Bautista, they've got speed in Rajai Davis, more power in Adam Lind, a hopefully resurgent Travis Snider, and a good young catcher in J.P. Arencibia. Toronto is not far off the Texas Rangers track. That's likely not a World Series winning track, but in most divisions, it's a contending track. And that makes them a fun watch (and a tough out) in the second half of this season.

Washington Nationals: JAYSON %#@&!$^ WERTH????!!!!!!
Okay, that's not quite a question or a storyline, but lately, if I see him or hear his name, that's what I want to scream. It would be easier to watch his floundering if he didn't make $18 million per season. It would be easier to watch if it looked like he gave a darn. It would be easier to watch if he looked like he had taken a shower, for God's sake. But with every 0-4 game, with 2 foul outs and 5 runners left on base, I think about all the things a team can do with $18 million. Like draft and sign guys way over slot. Like take risks on high upside/low-mid cost free agents. Like lowering ticket prices. Like paying people to sit in those empty $300 seats behind home plate. Like signing Jordan Zimmermann to a long-term extension. And on and on. I hated the Werth signing the moment I saw it. Anyone who had an objective eye and knew a good deal about baseball knew to look past the production in 2010 in Philadelphia. Mike Rizzo didn't pass that test. There's plenty for me to be excited about: Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, J-Zimm, Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, the out-of-nowhere rise of Brad Peacock, AJ Cole's great work in A-ball, the 2011 draft, the idea that maybe, just maybe, Matt Purke isn't totally damaged goods. No team in Major League baseball has a brighter long-term future than the Nats. But I keep going back to the Werth signing. And I look at Michael Morse. And I think, oh no. This can't happen again, right?

Playoff Predictions:

AL Winners:
East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: Rangers
Wild Card: Yankees

NL Winners:
East: Phillies
Central: Brewers
West: Giants
Wild Card: Braves

World Series: Phillies over Red Sox
(But it could still be my preseason Braves over White Sox prediction, right?)

2011 NFL Mock Draft

2011-04-26T18:49:00.002-04:00

I couldn't let the NFL Draft go by without my third consecutive mock draft. Especially because I never missed a pick in my previous 2 mocks. Okay, that was a lie. But I enjoy doing them, reading them, and seeing how awful my first round ends up being.

Last year, I started off 4-for-4. I then flipped Eric Berry and Russell Okung. So, I was looking good. Then I had the Cleveland Browns taking Jimmy Clausen. Clausen didn't get drafted by the Browns. Or any other team in Round 1. Then I had Oakland taking Bruce Campbell. Which they did. In Round 4. The rest of the mock wasn't so atrocious. I nearly hit on Tim Tebow's slotting when most people had him going in Round 2. And I hit on Jermaine Gresham to Cincinnati. So I'm going to try my hand at it again this year. Without further ado, 2011 Mock Draft Version 1 and Only. A reminder, the selections you see are what I think will happen in terms of player slotting. No trades (though, as a sidebar, no team needs to move up in this draft more than the St. Louis Rams, to take AJ Green or Julio Jones) in this mock. Explanations where needed/wanted.

1. Carolina Panthers- Cam Newton (QB/Auburn)

This would not be my pick if I were running the Panthers. With so much uncertainty in the 2011 NFL season, I'd be hesitant to draft a QB with my first overall pick unless he was a sure thing. Newton is not that. Cam is the most dynamic QB in this draft. And he has the most to work with in terms of skill set. And the highest ceiling. But he also needs a lot of work to succeed in the NFL. I'd take a surer thing on the defensive side of the ball. Marcell Dareus or Von Miller come to mind. Bear in mind, this is not a criticism of Cam. I just don't know for sure that he's going to be the best player in this draft.

2. Denver Broncos- Marcell Dareus (DT/Alabama)

A no-brainer for a team that couldn't sack a potato in 2010. Dareus is a workhorse. And a great addition to an abysmal defense.

3. Buffalo Bills- Blaine Gabbert (QB/Missouri)

Most prognosticators talk about how the Bills should draft a QB, but that they never will do the right thing. But what if they do? I think the Bills take Gabbert as the heir apparent to Jim Kelly (15 years later). It makes sense.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green (WR/Georgia)

I prefer Julio Jones. But I really prefer being right in my mock draft. I think Cincinnati goes offense, even with the surest thing in this draft (in my opinion), Von Miller, still on the board.

5. Arizona Cardinals- Patrick Peterson (CB/LSU)

Another landing spot for Miller, but Peterson fills an immediate, glaring need.

6. Cleveland Browns- Von Miller (LB/Texas A&M)

It's not necessarily a huge need for the Browns, but a great value pick of a guy who could go as high as #2. Miller is a high character guy with an obscene motor.

7. San Francisco 49ers- Prince Amukamara (CB/Nebraska)

The 49ers would love to see Peterson available here, but they should be happy with the Prince. Amukamara is not just a great Corner (though he may convert to Safety some day) but the best character guy in this draft. And who can doubt someone with the first name "Prince?"

8. Tennessee Titans- Robert Quinn (DE/North Carolina)

Yes, they took another DE last year in the first round (Derrick Morgan, who missed most of the 2010 season with a torn ACL). Yes, they could also go with a Quarterback (Jake Locker), Wide Receiver (Julio Jones), Offensive Tackle (Any of 4), or Defensive Tackle (Nick Fairley). Yes, they are not very good.

9. Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith (OT/USC)

Did you know that the Cowboys have never taken an Offensive Tackle in the first round under Jerry Jones? Well, that should change this year if they want to compete for a playoff spot in 2011. Smith is regarded as the best of a pool of good, but not great OT candidates.

10. Washington Redskins- Julio Jones (WR/Alabama)

Jones is the second coming of Hines Ward and would fill a glaring need for the Redskins. He's a steal here in my opinion as I'd rank him as a top 5 prospect in this draft.

11. Houston Texans- Jimmy Smith (CB/Colorado)

A huge reach. This year's Tyson Alualu. Houston is a team that needs a CB more than anyone else in this draft. If they can't move up to draft Peterson or Amukamara, I see them reaching for the next best thing. Smith is arguably as talented a CB as Peterson or Prince, but regarded as being a diva and a distraction. The talent is good enough that Houston should take the gamble. Because their corners were awful last year. Of course, if he doesn't get drafted here, don't be surprised if he falls into Round 2.

12. Minnesota Vikings- Gabe Carimi (OT/Wisconsin)

Quarterback is a possibility for the Vikings, but they need to get younger on the offensive line. And really, there's no Quarterback here who is truly worth taking this high and handing over the keys to the car to.

13. Detroit Lions- Cameron Jordan (DE/California)

Two months ago, Da'Quan Bowers was not only the top DE prospect, but the draft's top prospect. Now, injury concerns have the Lions, in my opinion, making the smart move and taking the best available, healthy DE.

14. St. Louis Rams- Nick Fairley (DT/Auburn)

If he's available here, and I do think he falls out of the top 10, St. Louis has a steal on their hands. The Rams are in the toughest spot at 14. They need a top flight WR, but Green and Jones will be gone by pick 14. St. Louis needs to move up to provide Sam Bradford a 12 year weapon on the outside.

15. Miami Dolphins- Nate Solder (OT/Colorado)

Of course, Jake Locker is an option. But the Dolphins need someone to flank the right side of their line. The enormous 6'8" Solder has the potential to be the right side's Jake Long.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Ryan Kerrigan (DE/Purdue)

The story here to me is the continued plummet of Da'Quan Bowers. I expect this to be a Defensive End and Kerrigan is the next best healthy DE. At some point though, Bowers' huge potential will be too much for these teams to pass up.

17. New England Patriots- J.J. Watt (DE/Wisconsin)

I've seen the Patriots taking J.J. Watt in nearly every mock draft. That usually means that New England will go in the opposite direction. So, really, throw a dart at a board if you'd like. I'll just go with the guy who seems like the best fit. Though Bowers is an intriguing prospect for New England.

18. San Diego Chargers- Da'Quan Bowers (DE/Clemson)

If any team is going to take a flier on an injured player with a limitless ceiling, it'll be AJ Smith's Chargers. And he fills a huge need for the team.

19. New York Giants- Anthony Costonzo (OT/Boston College)

The Giants could not protect Eli Manning last year. With so much invested in Eli and no true anchor at LT, the Giants need to take a LT. Costonzo is the best available.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Aldon Smith (DE/Missouri)

The Bucs have the youth in the middle of the front 4 with Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. Now they go out and get the youth on the edge, a place they struggled to get production from in 2010, in terms of taking down the QB.

21. Kansas City Chiefs- Phil Taylor (DT/Baylor)

I think the Glenn Dorsey pick was a disaster. With Dorsey now playing DE in their 3-4, Kansas City needs to clean up that mess by taking the talented (though troubled in the past) DT from Baylor.

22. Indianapolis Colts- Akeem Ayers (OLB/UCLA)

The Colts have needs at OT as well, however, there's later-round depth there. That's not the case with the LB position. The Colts defense is old, slow, untalented, or all 3. Ayers is the best LB in this draft. That is, assuming Von Miller drops out of the draft before it begins.

23. Philadelphia Eagles- Mike Pouncey (OG/Florida)

I think this might be too low for Pouncey, based entirely on the success of his brother Maurkice across the Keystone State last season.

24. New Orleans Saints- Mark Ingram (RB/Alabama)

A lack of depth in the defensive secondary draft field forces New Orleans to take a look at their biggest offensive weakness. Ingram, if healthy, could be a steal here. That is a huge "if."

25. Seattle Seahawks- Jake Locker (QB/Washington)

Every year, there's a pick that makes too much sense. A team without a true QB for their future. Pete Carroll's connection to Washington coach Steve Sarkisian. Locker playing college ball in Seattle. Locker being from suburban Seattle. It makes too much sense.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Adrian Clayborn (DE/Iowa)

Clayborn without the character issues is a top 15 pick. Why not put him in Charm City with Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, etc.? Let the pros teach the talented kid how to be a pro. I think he can be a big steal this low in Round 1. Does he slip to Round 2? Probably. Should he? Absolutely not. At least not on talent alone.

27. Atlanta Falcons- Randall Cobb (WR/Kentucky)

Cobb is a speedster that Atlanta can pair with Roddy White, giving Matt Ryan a pair of weapons to throw the ball to, rather than just Roddy White and, um, Brian Finneran?

28. New England Patriots- Danny Watkins (OG/Baylor)

Just the usual sexy New England Patriots draft pick, right?

29. Chicago Bears- Christian Ballard (DT/Iowa)

Chicago is a team that needs help on both lines. They're a likely destination for Danny Watkins, but with him off the board, they move to the D-Line, to a good fit with the hoss Ballard.

30. New York Jets- Marvin Austin (DT/North Carolina)

Austin's talent has to be intriguing to Rex Ryan. What has to be even more intriguing is that he fills a huge need for the Jets. Austin's ceiling places him just below Fairley and Dareus. His 2010 season suspension places him at the bottom of the first round, at the earliest.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers- Aaron Williams (CB/Texas)

There are a number of CBs who are all very similar in terms of draft grades. I think Pittsburgh takes the guy who played in the pass happy conference and played well.

32. Green Bay Packers- Cameron Heyward (DE/Ohio State)

There isn't a whole lot of work the Packers need to do to get better. Because, you know, they won the Super Bowl last year. Heyward is a great fit for the Packers and comes with an NFL pedigree (his father is Ironhead Heyward. Trust me, no one will ever mention that during his career...).

Before we go, I'd like to give you the best players (according to me) at every position (of consequence) who remain on the board.

QB- Andy Dalton- He's not going to wow anyone with his downfield arm. He will be a great game manager though. Think Trent Dilfer. And that's not a slight to Dalton.

RB- Mikel Leshoure- A solid all-around back. Leshoure won't blow you away with his quickness. He won't blow you away with his physicality. But he should stay healthy and produce.

WR- Jerrell Jernigan- A sound route runner. Does all of the little things well. His biggest knock is his size. I've heard this drill before.

TE- Kyle Rudolph- No brainer.

OL- Derek Sherrod- A possible first rounder for a team like Indianapolis or Pittsburgh who need help on the line. A very solid pass blocker.

DL- Muhammad Wilkerson- A high-growth DT who played at lower tier Temple. Room to grow in his smallish frame. Very quick. Could go in Round 1.

LB- Dontay Moch- Another high upside guy. Ran a 4.4 40-yard dash. Could move to safety.

DS- Ras-I Dowling- A big cornerback with a great name. Why not?

Enjoy the Draft folks.

Perk Is Gone...Now What?

2011-02-24T18:35:00.002-05:00

Kendrick Perkins was not the heart and soul of the Celtics. For a while there, he was the Achilles heel. His offensive game took forever to develop. He was (and remains) a terrible foul shooter. Even his defense left something to be desired. And it's hard to overlook the fact that he was a sourpuss. Perk has never committed a foul if you ask him. For me, Perk was famous for having his profanities picked up by broadcast shotgun microphones. If I had a dollar for every time I heard him yell the F-word followed by the N-word, well, I'd be able to re-sign him this offseason. Something the Celtics won't be able to do.

I had no idea that the trade had happened until about 45 minutes after the deadline. A coworker sent me the story while I was on the telephone with a reporter. I stopped listening to the receiver on my phone for a few seconds, trying to process what I was reading. Perk and Nate traded? For former Celtic legend Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic????!!!! What am I missing???? I couldn't wait to get off the phone to find out it was just a rumor and never happened. Oops.

The personal backstory for me has to start with the fact that I didn't love Perk's game until last season. And as for Nate, well, lets just say I may have let out at least one (well, only one) Perk-like expletive when the C's acquired him last year. But truth be told, I grew to love Nate. I liked what he brought to the table in Boston. I saw development in his game from UW to the Knicks to the C's. The Nate who I watched in college had developed into more than just a basketball playing freak of nature. Gone were the constant dumb passes and gone was the total defensive apathy. Nate gave a darn. And I loved that, really.

I'm going to stop setting up the story here and just get to the meat. I think this is an awful deal for Boston and for once, I know I'm not alone. I hear the argument that the 4th quarter lineup is the same now. Really? What if Jeff Green, a streaky shooter since his time at Georgetown, is on fire? Does he get benched? Or do the C's go small? What position does Green play in Boston? Does he come off the bench? Because if he's coming off the bench, Doc is doing something wrong. Jeff Green is an NBA starter. Don't get me wrong, the Celtics got the best player in this deal. But this deal isn't about who's best. Jeff Green doesn't fit the system here. In Oklahoma City, they're the Western Conference favorite to me. Perk and Nate give them exactly what they needed. A tough, mean, physical force down low and a scoring guard off the bench who can spot Westbrook or move him to the 2. The move gives OKC positive flexibility. Boston has flexibility too. But not the good kind.

I hear the argument that Glen Davis can play center. I think it's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. If you truly expect Glen Davis to start at center in the playoffs and go up against Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, or heck, Roy Hibbert (likely first round opponent and a much improved team with the OJ Mayo acquisition) in a 7 game series and come out on top, you're wrong. And I'm not about to go to Vegas and bet on KG's knees. No thank you. Garnett might be healthier this year than last, but he's also a year older. And with age comes wiseness. But with age also continues the breakdown of the human body. Same story for the Fragile O'Neal Brothers. If they're healthy, different story.

The elephant in the room for me is the Chicago Bulls. Last night was the first time the Bulls had Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah healthy and in the lineup. And yes, they lost to the lowly Raptors. I'm not at all concerned. This team will gel. They're the best coached team in the East. They play defense. They're big. And they're led by, to this point in the season, the NBA's MVP in Derrick Rose. In a seven game series, I'm concerned about KG/Big Baby vs. Carlos Boozer/Noah. Noah is a rebounding machine. Glen Davis, er, not so much. What happened to the Celtics last year against LA was the Lakers used their size to exploit Boston's biggest weakness: a lack of rebounding. Today, the Celtics decided to exploit their own weakness.

Look, maybe this move works out for Boston. Maybe Shaq gets healthy and contributes. Maybe KG's knees hold up for one more run. Maybe I'm underselling Glen Davis' big-man ability while overselling the Chicago Bulls. Maybe.

I guess I'm just mad. I watched New York get better this week. Chicago got better. Atlanta got better(ish). Miami stayed very good. Orlando made their big deal already. Boston hasn't made themselves better. Will they with an acquisition of Troy Murphy? Certainly. He fills a huge void. Until then though, I look at a team that was a threat and I see the Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, and Orlando Magic feeling a little bit better about their chances this year. This was the end of the line for the Celtics. I knew it. You knew it. There's no next year. Next year is a long way away. There are no young pieces in Beantown (especially not with the trading away of Semih Erden today) other than the very inconsistent Avery Bradley and Rondo. A nucleus that does not make. Today should have been about adding a veteran to fill the James Posey role without hurting the nucleus. Instead, the nucleus is gone. And in its place? A lot of uncertainty. And uncertainty with age is never a good thing.

Another College Basketball Post (And my Super Bowl Prediction)

2011-02-05T11:25:00.002-05:00

Thursday night, I got to bear witness to one of my least favorite announcer moves. It happens when the play-by-play man asks the color commentator a specific question, often yes or no, and the color commentator says, "Well, yes, but also no. And everyone else."

The specifics: During Thursday night's Ohio State/Michigan game, the question was posed, "Is Ohio State the best team in America?" The color commentator's answer? (Paraphrase) "Well, they're good. And Kansas is good. And you can't forget about Pittsburgh. And Duke won it last year. So yeah, I could see Ohio State playing in the Final Four."

This set off a rant by me. Amanda got to bear witness. My biggest complaint was this: How easy is it to answer that question? Are they the best or not? The answer is simple. Yes, they're the best. They're undefeated. No one else is. They're the top ranked team in every poll. They're as flawless a team as there could be in 2010-11. Why take the easy way out? They're a Final Four team? Way to go out on a limb.

This is the Troy Aikman rule of color commentary. You'll see it on Sunday at the Super Bowl. Aikman loves not saying something decisively. Joe Buck will ask, "Troy, what's your favorite bread?" and Aikman will say, "Well, ya Joe, you're right, rye bread is delicious. But it's important to not forget about sourdough, pumpernickel, and 12-grain honey wheat too. I mean, really, rye is one of my 9 favorite types of bread."

Why this brand of broadcasting irks me so is easy to explain. I like opinions. And I like people who aren't afraid to express their opinions in an intelligent, fact-supported way. What harm would have been done if last night's color commentator had said, "You know, guy, I still think Kansas is the best team in the country. Here's why: (list of opinions supported by facts)." In life, nothing good comes from timidity.

My rant then spawned a sort of brainstorming session for me. Amanda asked me who I thought were the four best teams in college basketball. And I know that I just wrote about college basketball recently. But, I'm all-in with college basketball right now. There's only one football game left (Pittsburgh wins 27-24 in Super Bowl XLV). Baseball, with any consequence, is two months away. And the NBA and NHL don't matter until May. So for me, it's all about college basketball.

I'll be brief(ish) in my response to Amanda's question:

Ohio State and Kansas are the two best teams in college basketball and I fully expect them to make it to the Final Four. As I've written in this space before, they're the two most balanced teams offensively and are very deep. (As a sort of side note: Ohio State is so good defensively).

So who joins them? Duke, first. I'm not concerned about the St. John's loss. Not one bit. A road loss to a good team at the end of January never killed anyone's chances of winning a national championship. The Devils' lack of an interior presence hurts them against the Ohio State's and Kansas's of the world, but less so against the Memphis's and Washington's of the world. I like Duke's experience and shooting ability. They're my third team.

And now, the challenge! Our candidates for the fourth slot include everyone. Well, within reason. I don't foresee Auburn making the Final Four. If I have to pick my five candidates (don't worry, I'm going to pick one of them), I'll take: Texas, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Syracuse, and BYU. Each of those teams has a fatal flaw. Texas's is coaching. Pittsburgh's is overall offensive. San Diego State's is mid-range shooting. Syracuse's is wild inconsistency. And BYU's is depth. The question is not, who's best? It's, "which of those short-comings is easiest to overcome?"

Coaching is not. Texas is a talented enough team to win a game in Lawrence, KS in January and they're talented enough to make the Elite 8. But when you reach the Elite 8, it almost always comes down to the best coach making the right call. And if you follow college basketball like I do, you know that Rick Barnes almost never makes the right call. He's a fabulous recruiter. That's the nicest thing I can say about him as a coach. Texas is eliminated.

Depth is not. I watch the Cougars and realize that they are a one man team, much like Davidson was in 2008. And eventually, that catches up with you. Now, don't get me wrong, there are some pieces of the Cougars puzzle who are better than the complimentary pieces on that Davidson team. And I think that as a college player, Jimmer Fredette is better than Stephen Curry was. That Davidson team couldn't do what last year's Butler team could because when they went up against a deep team (Kansas) they couldn't match-up for the full game. The same fate awaits BYU. And Elite 8 loss to Kansas. BYU is eliminated.

Overall offensive sluggishness is not. Every year, we talk about Pittsburgh as a Final Four team. They're tough and physical. They wear you down. And every year, they get outplayed by a smaller, quicker, fresher team who hasn't spent their entire season playing attrition basketball. The same thing will happen this year. Pittsburgh's good enough to beat anyone in one game. In a tournament, they're not. Pittsburgh is eliminated.

So that leaves San Diego State and Syracuse. And that's where it gets hard to predict. If the Syracuse team that won in Hartford on Wednesday shows up to the tourney, I like Syracuse. They have an inside game and a decent outside game. They play good defense. When they're on. But if the Syracuse team that got blown out by Seton Hall shows up then I think they're this year's Georgetown. They'll lose to Cleveland State in Round 1 (or 2 because of this year's stupid 68 team field). You can't afford to be inconsistent in March. Syracuse is eliminated.

Ultimately, I like San Diego State as that fourth team. And I know that it sounds crazy to your east coast brain. But trust me, as someone who's watched more Mountain West basketball this season than you'd care to, that conference is really really good. I plan my Wednesday night around the CBS College Sports MWC game of the week. And I do it because I like watching good basketball. Smart basketball. Basketball that's about strategy and endurance more than it is about having 10 blue-chippers throwing alley-oops all game long. San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and Colorado State could all make the Sweet 16. You don't think so because you haven't seen them play. But trust me, as your "MWC expert", they can. Now, will all four (and a deserving New Mexico team) make the tournament? Probably not. East coast bias. It's hard to stay up until midnight on a Wednesday to watch a basketball game being played 2000 miles away. Especially when you've never heard of the players. But trust me, it's worth it. Watch San Diego State once before the MWC tournament and you'll agree. They play better defense than anyone other than Ohio State. They're tough and physical when they need to be. They're deep. They're well coached. They have a point guard in DJ Gay who will be a household name come March. They're led by future NBA star Kawhi Leonard. Their "fatal flaw" is that they don't shoot the ball well from the mid-range or the 3-point line. But they can overcome. If Provo, Utah was at sea level, the Aztecs would still be undefeated. They lost that game because they weren't conditioned to play BYU's game at a mile above sea level. They won't have to do that in March. And because of that, I believe they're the fourth best team in the nation. Even if the nation doesn't know it yet.

An Analytical Examination of The Effect of Sunlight on Plant Growth (Nah, Just Me Writing About College Basketball)

2011-01-18T20:57:00.003-05:00

I've been putting off writing a mid-season analysis of the 2010-11 college basketball season for quite some time (well, since the midway point) now and, really, I'm not exactly jonesing to get it done. Now, don't get me wrong, that's not because I haven't enjoyed this season. I have. In fact, I don't remember the last college basketball season that I've followed more closely than this one. There's a lot of star power out there, but for the first time in a while, it's the teams that are stars and not the players. And I love that. There is no true freshman or sophomore sensation sweeping the nation this year. Some would argue that Ohio State's Jared Sullinger is, but think back to John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Michael Beasley the previous three years. Those guys dominated the press coverage like Sullinger hasn't. And for good reason. The team Sullinger is on is more complete than last year's Kentucky team, 2009's Oklahoma team, or Beasley's 2008 Kansas State team. Sullinger has David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford all averaging double-digit points per game. Ohio State goes 8 deep really well (Dallas Lauderdale was playing 25 minutes per game last year. Now he's the seventh man on this team). And they're well-coached and well-disciplined. In short, they're a complete team.

And that sort of comes to my point about my excitement, or lack thereof, for writing: I can only really see a handful of teams with a legitimate shot at a title. In years past, you could see more teams getting there because of stars leading a team. Like Rose did in Memphis in 2008. Look, that Memphis team had Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey and went deep on the bench, but that was Rose's team. And you knew that stopping Rose stopped the Tigers. With this season's Ohio State team (and that's just an example) you can try to stop Sullinger inside and get hurt by Diebler (49.5% from 3) and Lighty (45% from 3). As a team, Ohio State shoots 50% from the field (4th in the nation). Stopping one guy does not stop Ohio State.

Now, this scenario will be very sexy come the time for the Elite 8. That weekend of the tournament will be epic. Games where strategy, rather than stars, wins. We haven't seen those recently. And so I'm excited for the end of March. As for the rest of the regular season? And the first two rounds of the tournament? I don't know that we're going to see a lot of surprises, upsets, and compelling story lines.

So why not invent some???? Here are my top three potential story lines that could make the time between now and March 26 (the start of the Elite 8) just a little more exciting:

3. Kyrie Irving and the Duke Blue Devils

Mike Krzyzewski has remained mostly mum on the status of injured freshman guard Kyrie Irving. In short, Irving was the most impressive freshman I've seen this century. Better than Wall. Better than Rose. He was complete in every sense. It says a lot that the Devils have only lost once since he went down against Butler in early December. If he comes back this season, I'll push all of my chips to the center of the table for the Devils. Without him, Duke is great. But how great? And so we sit and wait. Maybe Krzyzewski is playing opossum and Irving will return in late February to get in shape for a March run. Or maybe he’s really done for the season. Just know that I think about this way more than I should.

2. Rock Chalk

Kansas can go undefeated. Before Irving's injury, I said the same about Duke. Now, if someone can do it, it's not San Diego State (more on that in a moment) or Ohio State (they'll lose in Champaign on January 22). No, the team that can go undefeated is Kansas. And it has nothing to do with schedule. Kansas has a couple of roadblocks on the schedule (at Mizzou to close out the season, and at a struggling Kansas State team in mid-February that will need a win to stay alive for the tournament (and even that might not help the Wildcats)). But Kansas is much better than Missouri and Kansas State. I expected Kansas to struggle a bit last night with the size and length of Baylor. Instead, they won by 20. Kansas is better this year, more balanced this year, than when they won the National Title in 2008. The Morris twins give the Jayhawks interior toughness they haven't had in a long time (apologies to Darrell Arthur, Nick Collison, and Cole Aldrich). Meanwhile, they can bury you from outside. No team in the country shoots better than the Jayhawks. And no team in the country is deeper than the Jayhawks (10 players averaging 14+ minutes per game). Do I think Kansas finishes the regular season undefeated? Yes, I do.

1. The Mountain West race

Look, I won't blame you if you don't care about a conference whose games show up on the CBS College Sports Network. But you're missing some really good, physical basketball. The MWC is the Big East of the West and the fourth best conference in college hoops (after the Big East, Big 12, and Big 10). The current top 10 features 4 Big East teams, 2 Big 12 teams, 1 Big 10 team, 1 ACC team, and 2 Mountain West teams. And it's not just luck. San Diego State (the nation's 6th ranked team) is a legitimate Final Four team. No novelty needed. They're relatively deep, offensively rebound as well as anyone, shoot well, and are tough as nails when they need to be. Rather than try to get teams to play their game, the Aztecs adapt to their opponents game and do it better than them. UNLV tried to outwork the Aztecs defensively. They lost. New Mexico tried to outrun the Aztecs. They lost. And UNLV and New Mexico are tournament teams. San Diego State is undefeated and on a collision course towards the potential regular season game of the year, not just in the American Southwest, but in all the country, on Wednesday January 26 in Provo, Utah against BYU.

BYU wants to out shoot you. And more often than not, they do. The Cougars are led by Jimmer Fredette. If you haven't heard of Jimmer, don't worry, I didn't spell "Jimmy" incorrectly. He's known as just “Jimmer” or "The Jimmer (my preference)." He is the sharpshooter's sharpshooter. Fredette leads the nation in scoring at 26 PPG and leads the Cougars in assists. He's the kind of player the media loves. He's a white Mormon named Jimmer, whose brother is a Mormon rapper, who may be the best player in college basketball. I mean, c'mon, right?

But while Jimmer might seem like a novelty, he's not. He's the real deal. More so than Adam Morrison was. Jimmer is an NBA player, not just some four year national love affair. He's played well as BYU's PG this season and in the right environment, will be a real good NBA guard. His range is limitless and he has a swagger that a guy like Adam Morrison clearly lacked. Don’t expect The Jimmer to grow a porn-stache.

I'd be remiss if I made the MWC all about SDSU and BYU. New Mexico, UNLV, and to a lesser extent, Colorado State have all played well this season. UNLV intrigues me the most of this group because they're a really good defensive club. UNLV is an outside shooter away from being where the Cougars and Aztecs are. They've beaten Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Kansas State already this season and outside of a fluke loss to UC-Santa Barbara, should be a Top 25-ranked team.

So who wins the MWC? San Diego State. I think the Aztecs win a classic in Provo next Wednesday night. Stay up (10 pm Eastern), find the CBS College Sports Network, sit back, and enjoy. I don't think the Aztecs can do the undefeated season. They'll slip up somewhere, against someone they probably shouldn't. And frankly, it would be better for them. If I had to guess where they lose, I'd say UNLV gets them when they play in Vegas on February 12th.

So who wins it all? Here's the list of teams that I think can win the title. It’s worth noting from the outset that no team from the Big East finds themselves here. If there's anything I've learned from watching the war of attrition that is the Big East schedule, it's that those teams are not conditioned to playing fast teams like Kansas and Duke. Heck, look at last year. Syracuse, a 1 seed, was eliminated in the Sweet 16 by a small, sharpshooting team in Butler. Georgetown, a 3 seed, lost in the First Round to an Ohio team that killed the Hoyas with quickness. Pittsburgh lost in Round 2 to a guard-dominated, perimeter Xavier team. And Marquette lost in Round 1 to the ultimate in quick, guard-dominated teams in Washington. Any one of this year's Big East teams would be eliminated in a Sweet 16 matchup with a team like Missouri or Washington. And so knowing that they’ll each have to play a quick, guard laden team, I just can’t see any of them hoisting a trophy in early April.

The Favorites (ranked)
1. Kansas: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Occasional laziness from the Morris twins.

2. Duke: There's something to be said for a team that's been there and done that. Duke has players who've gone through the March grind. In fact, they don't just have players who've done it, they have leaders, in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Total lack of size. This Duke team would get killed by Kansas under most circumstances.

3. Ohio State: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: That we're overrating them. I've yet to see Ohio State play 40 minutes this season (like, literally, as in I have only watched bits and pieces of them). They've frankly underwhelmed me thus far, from what I've seen. And I’m not a fan of the Big 10. Ohio State can play up to the speed of the elites, if they have to. But they haven’t had to, yet. The skill is there. It’s a matter of putting it together like they did in 2007.

They Can Do It (Maybe)
1. Any one of: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UConn, or Villanova

2. San Diego State: They're complete. They're effective. They can play a number of styles. They have a great player in Kawhi Leonard and a very, very good coach in Steve Fisher. If their name was "North Carolina" everyone would be a believer. Because they're a team from the oh-so inferior Mountain West (SARCASM!) they won't be treated as they should be.
Fatal Flaw: As good as BYU and UNLV are, SDSU has not and will not see the athletes that Kansas can run out there. 10 deep at that.

3. Michigan State: Right now, they're hanging around in the weeds, waiting until March. They're a veteran team who played a rough non-conference schedule, coached by one of the greatest college coaches of all time. You can sell them short all you want. I'm at the Spartan party.
Fatal Flaw: Lack of athleticism as a team. Duke beat them by 5 at Cameron, with Kyrie Irving. The score doesn't reflect it, but Duke beat them much worse than by 5 points. They outran the Spartans all night. If Michigan State can get their opponent to play their game, the athleticism thing isn't a problem. But if, say, Kansas, forces the issue, Michigan State should get left in the dust.

4. BYU: Jimmer can get hot.
Fatal Flaw: Jimmer needs to get very hot for a month. That's a lot to ask.

They Really Can't Do It, But I Feel Like Talking About Them At Random
1. Kansas State: I don't recall a more frustrating team to watch in the last five years. They're incredibly talented. That's about it. To say that the Wildcats have no team leadership would be like saying Young Jeezy has no street cred. I watch this team play and I spend most of the time shaking my head. Early, off-balanced shots. Lazy defense. And zero accountability. Frank Martin should not have a job after this season. Kansas State's preseason top five ranking was deserved, on paper. They proved early on, with embarrassing performances against Duke, Florida, and UNLV that they didn't deserve that, in real life. Can this team catch fire? Honestly, watching them, no. They can't. I'm not sure they'll even make the tournament. And that's a shame for the fans in the Little Apple, who came in expecting a run at a title, as I did.

2. Baylor: Another thoroughly disappointing team. Baylor's athleticism is off the charts. With Kyrie Irving's injury, Baylor has the likely first overall pick in June's NBA draft in Perry Jones III. They also have an excellent pure scorer in LaceDarius Dunn. Jones III and Dunn are complimented by a group of swingmen with infinite wingspans who can jump out of the gym. The question after a little more than half the season is if they can play basketball while jumping out of the gym. So far, the jury is still out. I watched them play zero interior defense last night against Kansas. I mean, Brady Morningstar could have been playing the 5 and he would have produced last night. This team, unlike Kansas State, can make a serious run at the Final Four. Whereas Kansas State has a personality issue, Baylor has an execution issue. You can fix that in two months. Kansas State needs a complete makeover.

3. Texas A&M: You know, it's cute that they're a top 10 team and all, but consider that their biggest win of the season was a two point, home, overtime victory over an inconsistent Missouri team on Saturday. Texas A&M’s only loss of the season was to Boston College. The same Boston College team that lost to Yale and Harvard. So, yeah, I'm not a big believer in Mark Turgeon and the Aggies.

4. Purdue: If Robbie Hummel had knees, they'd be in the group with Kansas, Duke, and Ohio State.

5. Saint Mary's: They have two losses this season. They are to San Diego State and BYU. They're 7th in the nation in scoring offense, 2nd in assists, and 2nd in FG %. “Watch out,” is all I'm saying. You were warned when everyone says, "How did that team end up in the Sweet 16?"

6. Gonzaga: This could be the end of the run for America's Cinderella.

It is the end of the run for this post. Enjoy the remainder of the regular season. There might not be a lot of reasons to watch until March, but I'll certainly be watching.

Putting a Bow on a Really Great Present

2011-01-11T00:21:00.003-05:00

This is my 200th post and I couldn't use this milestone (?) (work with me here) on a better topic or at a better time than after a great college football game, at 12:30 AM.

First thing first: Nick Fairley has to be the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Fairley was more than unstoppable. Kirk Herbstreit referenced Ndamakung Suh. It's an apt comparison. Perhaps it's not fair to Fairley. He was conditioned, he was ferocious, and he was unstoppable coming off the line. Carolina would be crazy to draft Da'Quan Bowers or Patrick Peterson or AJ Green first overall. Fairley was fabulous.

A close second to Fairley's fabulosity was the freshman Michael Dyer. I wrote in my preview that if I was Chip Kelly, Dyer would be the guy (other than Cameron Newton) I'd be most scared of. Dyer did not disappoint. Auburn fans saw flashes of Dyer's possessed brilliance this season, but he was mostly held in check by SEC defenses. Tonight, against a Pac-10 defense (and a good one at that), Dyer had his national coming out party. A lot can happen in an offseason, but I'm very nervous if I'm an SEC D-Coordinator heading into the 2011 regular season. Dyer could be dangerous.

As for this game, just wow. It was equal parts suspenseful, weird, sloppy, clean, ugly, and pretty. If you're a Shoney's type of person, you loved this game, because no matter what you like to pile your plate with, you had it in the 2011 National Title game.

We were all wrong. Both defenses played very well. I was impressed with the speed of Oregon's defense. They shut down Cameron Newton better than any team did during the regular season. They were quicker to the edge and only once did they give him the seam. The only thing missing for the Ducks defensively was a more consistent pass rush. That was not there in Glendale for U of O.

As good as Oregon's defense was, Auburn's was stunning. The pressure that their defensive line created on Darron Thomas was only outdone by the pressure they put on Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James when either took a read handoff from Thomas. I did not think, not in a million years, that Auburn's line was going to crash the line of scrimmage and get so quickly, so easily to Oregon's dynamic backs. Ted Roof earned his money tonight. The secondary looked, um, bad, but it didn't become a relevant issue in this game. And that credit is due to Roof and Tiger coach Gene Chizik. Defense won the national championship game that the offense got them to. If that's not a complete team, I'm not sure what is.

Finally, and even despite his quiet (by his standards) game, Cameron Newton deserves mention. Without him, the TCU Horned Frogs would be celebrating right now and the Tigers would have been your Gator Bowl Champions. Newton almost lost this game. From the short-armed pass on 4th and Goal in the second quarter (he was saved by a safety), to his miss of Darvin Adams in the 3rd quarter (his defense saved him) to the fumble late in the 4th (he was saved Michael Dyer and Wes Byrum), Newton was as average as a 6'6", power running, strong armed QB can be. When needed, Newton made a play. But he didn't make the plays that helped him win a Heisman. And so now, the questions will center around whether he'll enter the NFL Draft. I think he has to. His stock will never be higher. In one year, Cam accomplished what no Auburn QB has accomplished in half a century. He will be forever cherished by Tiger fans. And he deserves every bit of that. He has a future in the NFL. He needs a lot of seasoning. Oregon's defense showed that tonight. His mechanics aren't clean and his decision making isn't always great. That said, on potential alone, he's a first round draft pick. If Vince Young could be the third overall pick, Cam can too. Say what you want about his character (it's great, but whatever) but he's a world more mature today than Vince Young is. If I'm a team that needs a QB in 2 years, for 10 years, I'm drafting Cameron Newton.

If Cam returns to The Plains, Auburn is the preseason favorite. Hands down. There's a good recruiting class coming in and some good returning complimentary pieces. If Cam doesn't return, well, playing in the SEC West, repeating is hard. Just ask LSU. Or Alabama.

But next year is just that. Tonight, or this morning, like always, I'll be savoring the joy and excitement that college football brings me and a lot of other people. Tonight's game might not have been the 2006 Rose Bowl game. It might not have been 2002's Fiesta Bowl. But it was a fascinating game. If they played again next week, Oregon might win. The week after? Probably Auburn. And so on. These were two deserving teams, with a bunch of players who, while they might not become NFL stars, busted tail for 60 minutes. And it was a true joy to watch. War Eagle.

Tigers Eat Ducks. That's How The World Works.

2011-01-10T18:59:00.003-05:00

Every so often, a game comes along that, on paper, seems to embody all that is wonderful about sport and competition. Tonight's BCS National Championship fits that bill. And then some.

First, the teams. Before the season, seemingly every prognosticator had Alabama facing Ohio State in Glendale tonight. And it made sense. Alabama came into the season returning the bulk of their offense from last year's National Championship team. And Ohio State was coming off of a 2 loss season that saw them dominate Oregon in the Rose Bowl and was returning the bulk of their offense and defense. So, in short (or long) I can't criticize those predictions (for the record, I picked Alabama and Florida. Let's move on).

Hiding in the weeds were the Oregon Ducks and the Auburn Tigers. Oregon began the season as the Pac-10 favorite and #11 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. I picked Oregon to finish behind Stanford in the Pac-10, writing that I thought the black cloud from last season (LaGarrette Blount's punching incident and Jeremiah Masoli's inability to stay out of trouble) would hamper the Ducks and lead them to a 9-3 season. Though I did write that they should be an 11-1 or 12-0 season. But the kind of 12-0 they were? I didn't see that coming. I knew that Oregon's offense wanted to go fast, but this year, with Darron Thomas at the helm, they went Mach 5 fast. And they made their opponents look bad in doing so. In their second game of the season, they went into Knoxville and found themselves tied 13-13 at the half. They won that game 48-13. Only one opponent stayed within single digits of the Ducks (Cal, in a game the Bears should have won, frankly.). Other than the Cal game, the fewest points Oregon scored in a game this season was 37. You know how good Stanford is? Oregon beat them by 21. The phrase "well-oiled machine" gets thrown around a lot. The Oregon Ducks are a Bentley. They're a pre-Iceberg Titanic. They're Eli Whitney's cotton gin.

Way down at the bottom of the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll was the Auburn Tigers at #23. People knew the Oregon Ducks coming into 2010. Folks didn't know the Tigers, really. There was some preseason hype. Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN picked them to win the SEC West. But most people thought they were a middle-of-the-pack SEC West team. Which isn't bad frankly, with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas up there. Auburn, however, was much better than a middle-of-the-pack team. They were the SEC's best team, slaying their way through a murderer's row conference schedule en route to a 12-0 regular season record. But it wasn't always easy for Auburn. Unlike the Ducks, Auburn played a number of close games. That number is 6. 6 one-score games. Most of the credit for Auburn's dream season, deservedly so, is given to their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Cameron Newton. Newton was the most dynamic and dominant player in college since Reggie Bush, albeit playing a different position. No one stopped Newton this year. No one kept him in check for an entire game. He finished the season with 49 total TDs (including one receiving). He ran through, around, and then through, again, the best defenses in America, putting up staggering numbers. Like 217 rushing yards against LSU. Or 216 passing yards and 3 TDs against Alabama. No matter what he faced, Cam Newton had an answer. If you went in looking to stop the run, you got deep bombs to Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. If you dropped 7 into coverage, you got a 6'6'' quarterback knocking your linebackers over. He was truly a man amongst boys and is owed a lot of the credit for Auburn being here.

Beyond the "nobody expected us to be here" card and their explosive offenses these two teams, at least historically. have nothing in common. Auburn sits historically near the precipice of being a top-tier program, like the Nebraskas, Oklahomas, and Alabamas. Part of what has kept Auburn from that is the fact that they've only won one National Championship (1957). They've been close. Like in 2004 when they were denied (folks in the "loveliest village" will tell you robbed...they're right) an opportunity, at 12-0, to play for a title. They also finished 1993 undefeated, but were on probation. In 1983, they entered the bowl season number 4 in the country, won their bowl game, saw each team ahead of them lose, and still somehow only ended the season 3rd in the polls. Auburn has always played second fiddle, even in their state, where they take a back seat to the University of Alabama in terms of success and prestige. Nothing would make the so-called (by Bama fans) "Barners" happier than to shut up their cross-state rivals and finally win what has eluded them for 54 years.

Oregon on the other hand, has never been here before. That's really their history. They've never played in a championship game. Their program, twenty years ago, didn't matter. It wasn't until Nike mogul Phil Knight put an estimated $300 million into the program that Oregon started having football success. Even still, the school truly lacks a signature victory. A win tonight would be a Hancock-like signature victory, and perhaps cement the Ducks as the most dominant team in recent memory (at least since Miami at the start of the 2000s.).

But it won't happen. I cannot lie that all of the numbers, and all of the media coverage, point to a Ducks win. And I'm biased. I want a Tiger victory. I want to see Cameron Newton shut people up. I want to see Oregon's coach, Chip Kelly, shut up. I don't want to hear any more about how quickly the Ducks operate and how great LaMichael James is. I don't want to listen to another Chip Kelly halftime interview. I don't want to see him in the postgame interview. I don't care about the winged, multi-colored uniforms, and pewter helmets. I understand that people don't want to hear or see Cameron Newton. I understand that people think he's a cheater and a liar and want to watch him lose. People are sick of seeing him smile after games. I get that. I, however, will be rooting for the college kid whose father solicited money from another university in return for his son's potential enrollment. I will be rooting for the most exciting college player I've seen since _________________ (fill in the blank). I love watching Cameron Newton play football. Because Cameron Newton clearly loves playing football.

Auburn beats Oregon with a huge game from LB Josh Bynes. Bynes will have to stay focused for 60 minutes. He will have to read Darron Thomas' every hand off. He will have to be as fit as he's ever been. Auburn needs him on the field, maybe even more than DT Nick Fairley. Against a team like the Ducks, the linebackers are more important than the defensive line. If you go in thinking that you're going to stop LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner in the backfield, you're wrong. But if you can stop them just after the line of scrimmage and put the Ducks in 3rd and Mediums, you can stop them. Darron Thomas is not a refined passer. He has weapons in the pass game, especially in Jeffrey Maehl. But the Ducks' strength is truly in their running game and what they can do on first and second down. California did a great job of getting them into third downs and that's how they nearly beat them. Oregon was 8-21 on third down in that game. Against USC? 11 of 17. Against Stanford? 6 of 12. The more 3rd downs the Ducks see, the better your chance of beating them.

Offensively, for Auburn, I have no doubt that they'll score. They might fall behind the Ducks 21-0 in the first quarter. I won't be concerned. The Tigers can score just as well as the Ducks can. And Oregon's defense, which I've watched a handful of times this year, is not unbeatable, as some pundits would have you believe. They allowed 29 points or more in 4 games. Auburn allowed 29 points or more in 4 games as well. Auburn's defense is not as bad as some would have you believe. Oregon's, in turn, is not as good. They're much closer than the experts think.

For Oregon to beat Auburn, defensively, they need to let Cameron Newton throw, not run. When Auburn throws, they throw. Deep. That means short drives. That means less time for the Tigers defense to rest. That falls right into the Ducks' wishes. Tire the Auburn defense. Cameron Newton is more likely to make a critical error in the passing game than running. If the Ducks think they can beat Auburn with Newton rushing for over 200 yards, they're wrong.

My final prediction is for an Auburn victory and I don't think it'll be as close as people think. I'll take the Tigers 45-28. And I know I'm going out on a huge limb and making a bold prediction that could very well be way wrong and in no way falls in line with how most see this game playing out. But I've watched the Tigers all year long and watched a lot of the Ducks. I know what I see. I see a better and more complete team down on the Plains. War Eagle.

Some One-Liners About Tonight's Game and the 2010 Season:

If I'm Oregon, the Auburn Tiger who scares me most (that isn't Cameron Newton) is: Michael Dyer. The freshman did not have a true breakout game this season. He has the potential to make tonight his coming out party.

If I'm Auburn, the Oregon Duck who scares me most (that isn't LaMichael James) is: Kenjon Barner. Jeff Maehl scares me a little, but I'm not a Darron Thomas believer. Barner is a better back than LaMichael James. He's quicker and shiftier. That's scary if I'm Auburn D-Coordinator Ted Roof.

Preseason Predicition I'm Proudest Of: Stanford winning the Pac-10. I know they didn't, but there wasn't a lot of people calling Stanford a potential Pac-10 champ. I'm happy that I praised the Cardinal and Andrew Luck.

Preseason Prediction I'd Most Like to Hide Away Forever: Florida to play in the national title game. And Auburn to finish fourth in the SEC West. That was very stupid.

Enjoy the game tonight!

Quarterback Madness!!!! (Cue Sinister Laughter)

2010-11-23T22:00:00.000-05:00

I love tournaments. You love tournaments. I love football. You love football. I think quarterbacks are important. You think...okay you get the picture.

But who's the best quarterback in the NFL? And not just "the best (Peyton Manning)," but who would you want for your franchise's future, starting right now. Contracts versus contracts. Potential versus previous success. It's all so exciting.

We'll look at the primary QBs for each of the 32 NFL teams, going forward this season, but with some common sense. Tim Tebow is likely not the starter in Denver next year. Just like Shaun Hill and Jon Kitna aren't the starters for Detroit and Dallas. And for Tennessee, why not go with Rusty Smith (besides the obvious fact being that he's terrible)? In the curious case of the Carolina Panthers, who are starting a fresh pile of manure every week at QB, let's just go with Jimmy Clausen for the heck of it (sorry Keith Null). And for Minnesota, are you convinced that Brett Favre isn't coming back?

Each quarterback will be seeded 1-8, in four different regions with the seeding being based upon their team's current record in the NFL. So with the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, New England Patriots, and Baltimore Ravens (we're going to alphabetical in instances of tied records because figuring out the tiebreaking scenario between 7 teams for the sake of a blog post, isn't exactly a wise use of time) being our top 4 teams, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco get our number one seeds. And so on, and so forth. Each region will be named for a great QB of the past. Analysis where necessary.

Round 1
Steve Young Region
1.) Matt Ryan (ATL)
vs.
8.) Jimmy Clausen (CAR)
Matt Ryan wins this easily. Nothing I've seen from Clausen in his rookie year lends itself to future success. Meanwhile, Ryan is quickly evolving into a top 7 QB.

4.) Matt Cassel (KCC)
vs.
5.) Donovan McNabb (WAS)
Cassel wins because of youth and because he seems to be evolving into a better QB, while McNabb just exists.

3.) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
vs.
6.) Colt McCoy (CLE)
I really think this is closer than I ever would have expected. Roethlisberger makes big money (12 million per). McCoy makes little money ($1.25 million per). It's hard to believe, but Big Ben is only 4 years older than Colt. Big Ben has also won 2 Super Bowls. But Big Ben is also one misstep away from a year long suspension. Meanwhile, McCoy has shown flashes of near-brilliance in his rookie campaign. Call me crazy, but for my franchise's future, I'm taking Colt McCoy.

2.) Jay Cutler (CHI)
vs.
7.) Troy Smith (SFO)
Jay Cutler, as mistake prone as he is, gets a good draw here and advances.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez (NYJ)
vs.
8.) Matthew Stafford (DET)
I think Stafford is the better QB, but Stafford has also shown himself to be less than durable. Meanwhile, Sanchez is a winner and he's healthy. And a little cheaper. And more marketable. Tough break for Stafford, drawing Sanchez.

4.) Eli Manning (NYG)
vs.
5.) Rusty Smith (TEN)
If there's a bigger mismatch on here, Lord help us. Rusty Smith was an inferior college QB. He lacked the tools necessary to be elite at Florida Atlantic. Why an NFL team drafted him, I'll never know. How he's starting for an NFL team as a rookie, I don't want to know.

3.) Josh Freeman (TBB)
vs.
6.) Derek Anderson (ARI)
You see that bandwagon driving by with Josh Freeman's face on it? I'm driving.

2.) Aaron Rodgers (GBP)
vs.
7.) Brett Favre (MIN)
Funny how this draw happened. This is actually a pretty huge mismatch too, no offense to Rusty Smith.
Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady (NEP)
vs.
8.) Carson Palmer (CIN)
Carson Palmer's inflated numbers, put up in garbage time, aside, Tom Brady is and always will be, superior to Carson.

4.) Chad Henne (MIA)
vs.
5.) Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
This is a can't win matchup. In that it "can't win" the next round. I'll take Henne because of his youth.

3.) Peyton Manning (IND)
vs.
6.) Sam Bradford (STL)
Here is the most fascinating matchup of Round 1. Two #1 overall QBs. One is 34 years old. The other is 23 years old. One has won a Super Bowl, multiple MVPs, and is widely regarded as the best QB of this generation, or perhaps any. The other is a rookie, throwing to guys whose wives don't recognize them on the street. And yet he's still on pace for 3500 yards passing and 20+ TDs, while keeping his INTs down. The other guy threw 28 INTs in his rookie season. Look, I'm going to level with you here. Manning, today, is a much better QB than Sam Bradford is. But is he necessarily always going to be better than Bradford ever could be? What this boils down to is Peyton Manning for the next 4 or 5 years or Sam Bradford for the next 14 or 15. I want Bradford. A franchise quarterback is terribly valuable. Especially one as marketable as Sam. Especially one as smart as Sam. Sounds a lot like Peyton, no? I almost feel bad not taking Manning, but his career isn't going to last forever. Bradford's potential is limitless.

2.) Drew Brees (NOS)
vs.
7.) Kyle Orton (DEN)
This is far easier than the previous one.

Dan Marino Region
1.) Joe Flacco (BAL)
vs.
8.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
This is closer than you think. I'll take Flacco for now.

4.) Jason Campbell (OAK)
vs.
5.) Phillip Rivers (SDG)
Moving on....

3.) David Garrard (JAX)
vs.
6.) Matt Schaub (HOU)
Moving on....

2.) Michael Vick (PHI)
vs.
7.) Tony Romo (DAL)
Another fascinating matchup and by far this region's most interesting. Vick is 30. Romo is 30. Vick is due to make some serious change. Romo already makes serious change. Vick has been questioned his entire career. Romo has been questioned his entire career. Vick spent two years in prison for running a dogfighting ring out of his home. Tony Romo dated Jessica Simpson. Vick makes a living with his feet and can throw really well. Romo makes a living with his arm and can run pretty well. I'm going to take Romo as my franchise QB. He might not be "a winner," but neither is Vick, frankly. I'm not sure how to market Vick. Reformed monster? Electric superstar who's one strike away from career expulsion from the league and almost got there this summer? It's a hornet's nest. Vick might be the most exciting player in the league, but they don''t give trophies for that.

Round 2
Steve Young Region
1.) Matt Ryan
vs.
4.) Matt Cassel
In the battle of the Matt's, the better one wins.

6.) Colt McCoy
vs.
2.) Jay Cutler
FoxSports.com says that Jay Cutler makes $22 million per season. I'll take Colt McCoy.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez
vs.
4.) Eli Manning
Funny how this worked out with the two New York QBs facing each other. If either of these two played in Kansas City or Seattle, they'd be regarded as elite QBs. Instead, the word "shaky" is used to describe them. And yes, at times, both can be shaky. Sanchez "suffers" from being super attractive. Because he's so attractive, people will have a hard time taking him seriously as an NFL QB. Eli suffers from being Peyton's younger, dopier looking brother. Because of that, people have a hard time taking him seriously. Both guys are paid quite a lot of money. I'm going with the younger guy and the guy who I like more: Sanchez. He has a moxie that Eli clearly lacks. Sanchez is funny and engaging and marketable. Eli sells rich people's watches because he plays for the Giants and has a familiar last name. I also think Sanchez is ahead of Eli's career curve at this point.

3.) Josh Freeman
vs.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
I love how far Josh Freeman has come along. But I am not insane.

Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady
vs.
4.) Chad Henne
I've talked a lot about age here and made it the determining factor between two QBs who are close in potential vs. previous success. This is not one of those instances.

6.) Sam Bradford
vs.
2.) Drew Brees
I took Bradford because of his youth and near limitless potential against Peyton Manning. And here I am stuck with the same battle. Brees is three years younger than Peyton. But Peyton is a better QB than Brees. But this isn't about Brees vs. Manning. It's about Brees vs. Bradford. And I'm taking Brees. Barely. But I'm taking Brees because he's the ideal face for an NFL franchise right now and for the next 8 years. He might not have Sam's measureables. But he's a franchise face right now; not in two or three years. It's very close and Bradford is probably going to prove me wrong in 5 years. But today, Brees just edges him out.

Dan Marion Region
1.) Joe Flacco
vs.
5.) Phillip Rivers
This isn't close at all. Rivers in a landslide. Flacco's "potential" continues to decrease every game, seemingly. Rivers' grows.

6.) Matt Schaub
vs.
7.) Tony Romo
Schaub is cheaper, but I'm not sure that he has ever spoken and he has never shown himself to be a winner. Romo has taken teams to the playoffs and Romo can lead a team. I refuse to believe that Romo is to blame for Dallas' underachieving during his tenure as starting QB.

Round 3
Steve Young Region
1.) Matt Ryan
vs.
6.) Colt McCoy
Colt McCoy's dream run had to come to a close some time. This was the time. I've been so impressed with Matt Ryan's development. Once he starts consistently winning road games, he'll catapult into the top 5 in the NFL. He has that much skill. McCoy may never be a top QB.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez
vs.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has tools that few other QBs have. He's mobile, nearly perfect in accuracy, vocal, but not too vocal, easy to root for, and not terribly expensive. Sanchez is going to be very good, but perhaps not elite like Rodgers is.

Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady
vs.
2.) Drew Brees
By far the most difficult of these matchups. Brady has won 3 Super Bowls. Brees has won 1. Brees is two years younger than Brady. Both are already elite QBs and show no signs of letting that fade. I'm going to take Brady here. The previous knee injury worries me a little, but not much. The reason why I'm going with Brady is because he's a proven, repeated winner. And he's done it with awful teams. Not subpar. Awful. Antoine Smith? Deion Branch? Benjamin Watson? These are the guys that Brady has won with. Almost in spite of. This is no slight to Brees. He's great. Brady, though, is an almost perfect QB. And perfection is hard to turn away from.

Dan Marino Region
5.) Phillip Rivers
vs.
7.) Tony Romo
Phillip Rivers hasn't reached his full potential yet. That's really scary.

Final Four
1.) Matt Ryan vs. 2.) Aaron Rodgers
At first, I thought that I should labor over this decision. I shouldn't. Rodgers is only a year older and is much closer to reaching his full potential, which I think is greater than Ryan's, ultimately. This really isn't too difficult.

1.) Tom Brady vs. 5.) Phillip Rivers
This one is. Well, until you remember that Phillip Rivers' career playoff record is 3-4 and he's thrown more INTs than TDs. Brady is 14-4 in the postseason. And his TD/INT ratio? Nearly 2:1. Brady might be four years older, but I'm not totally stupid. Rivers has had a great season and put up historic numbers. But he's not the winner that Tom Brady is. And who knows if he'll ever get there.

Championship
2.) Aaron Rodgers vs. 1.) Tom Brady
Rodgers has started one career playoff game and threw for 4 TD and over 400 yards. He only threw one INT. He lost that game. So Brady has the better career postseason winning percentage. But Rodgers is 26 years old. He has at least a decade ahead of him, maybe more. Rodgers is already an elite QB in just his third season as a starter. He doesn't make mistakes and throws for a ton of yards.4000 yards in your first season as a starter is wildly impressive. Rodgers did it. Just three years ago. Brady doesn't need me to write any glowing words about him. He's a surefire Hall of Famer, 5 years to the day of his retirement. He's one of the five best QBs of all-time. But this is Aaron Rodgers' time. And he may very well be in that top 5 with Brady some day. I'm willing to bet the future on it.

Champion
Aaron Rodgers

There's A Brent Musburger Reference In Here Somewhere

2010-11-22T18:03:00.003-05:00

I have 3 blog ideas and 3 days this week before the holiday. Seems like simple math, right? I want to rank the starting QBs in the NFL (a power ranking for the future, if you will), I want to do a full college football bowl projection (because I enjoy wasting your and my time) and finally I want to take inventory of the NFL season. Idea number 3 is the least interesting, so in the vein of how I live my life, we're going with that one first.

Last month, I took a look at the NFC and believe I may have used the words "terrible," "horrible," "no good," and "very bad" to describe it. That was actually very wrong of me. The NFC certainly has it's holes (The playoff bound Chicago Bears, the NFC West, Brian St. Pierre, etc) but there's a lot to be excited about there. Including three potential Super Bowl champions. But we'll start with the AFC.

(Rankings 1-6 for who I think will make it to the playoffs)

AFC
1. New York Jets (12-4)
I've read a few scribes today downgrading the Jets because their last three wins came against the Lions, Browns, and Texans and were not done in convincing fashion. I understand that to a certain extent. I also understand that if you're 8-2 after 10 games, you're a pretty good football team. I also realize that the Jets beat the Patriots in their only game so far in 2010. I also realize that the Jets find a way to win their games, and are being led by a quarterback with 15 TDs, 7 INTs, and 2300 Yards passing. Yes, the Jets QB is on pace for a 26 TD, 11 INT, 4000 Yard season. And still, people criticize him like it's a hobby. If the Jets were the Indianapolis Colts, we'd be going crazy, head over heels for them. But because it's the Jets, we need to nitpick. I for one, am not nitpicking. They're the best team in the AFC.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
You tell me who's second best in the AFC: New England beat the Steelers and the Ravens. The Ravens beat the Jets. But the Jets beat New England. And the Ravens beat the Steelers. But the Steelers were playing without their starting quarterback. And the Steelers beat Atlanta. Who beat Baltimore. Who, yes, beat Pittsburgh. It all comes down to matchups. And Pittsburgh has some easy ones left on their schedule. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Carolina. The other two games? Of course, the Ravens and Jets. The Steelers are an enigma. The losses to New England and New Orleans concern me. But the Ravens have the same record and despite a head-to-head win, may be more enigmatic than the Steelers.

3. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Sorry, I can't commit myself to giving a David Garrard QB'd team a 3 seed in the playoffs. I don't care if Jacob Tamme and Blair White are key targets for Peyton Manning. The South is very winnable for the Colts.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
They're undefeated at home and they've already gotten their hardest home test (San Diego) out of the way. All they need to do is find a way to win 1 or 2 road games and they'll sneak in.

5. New England Patriots (12-4)
For what it's worth, I think they finish in a tie with the Jets, but New York wins the tiebreaker and the bye. The offense is great. The defense, well, not so great.

6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Ray Rice has 3 TDs heading into Week 12. Joe Flacco has not developed into a 4,000 yard passer. Anquan Boldin may have been kidnapped a few weeks ago. And Billy Cundiff will have to win a key game for them down the stretch, right? But then again, remember when they shut out the Jets in the Meadowlands? And do you really trust Mark Sanchez to win a cold weather game?

Baltimore beats Indianapolis and New England beats Kansas City
Baltimore beats New York and New England beats Pittsburgh

AFC Championship: Baltimore beats New England (Shayne Graham misses a GW FG, and Billy Cundiff proves me wrong)

NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Green Bay plays at Atlanta this weekend, goes into the Georgia Dome, and punches the Falcons in the mouth.

2. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
Green Bay plays at Atlanta this weekend, goes into the Georgia Dome, and punches the Falcons in the mouth. I know that Atlanta has been nearly unbeatable under Mike Smith at home, but the Packers look like they're on a mission now that they're healthy. And I don't think the Falcons are a tough football team.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
I'm nervous every time Michael Vick runs to his right. Imagine how Andy Reid feels. Still, when they're on, they're more fun to watch than the 1999 Rams.

4. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
It makes me want to cry. But do you think St. Louis can win a game on the road?

5. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Flying WAY under the radar right now. They're slow start may have blinded you to the fact that they're 7-3. And playing good football since that loss to the Browns.

6. New York Giants (10-6)
I had to go down to the 4th tiebreaker (strength of victory) before giving the Giants the edge over the Buccaneers. Did you know that combined, the Giants and Bucs have won one game against current playoff teams? True story. New York beat Chicago in Week 3. You'll notice that I don't have Chicago making the playoffs. Carry on.

Philadelphia beats New York and New Orleans beats Seattle
Green Bay beats New Orleans and Philadelphia beats Atlanta (sidebar: How awesome would that story be if Vick returns to Atlanta in the playoffs?)

NFC Championship Green Bay beats Philadelphia

Super Bowl: Green Bay beats Baltimore.

And yes, if you're a smart reader, you know that was my preseason prediction.

Some Awards

MVP: Peyton Manning (Runners up: Tom Brady, Josh Freeman, Michael Vick)
OROY: Sam Bradford (Runners up: No one is even close. Dez Bryant and Mike Williams get honorable mention)
DROY: NDamukong Suh (Runners up: Earl Thomas, TJ Ward)
Coach of the Year: Brad Childress......Sorry, I imagined the word "non" in there.
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
Best Resurrection of a Career, Ever: Michael Vick
Worst Crucifixion of a Career Ever: Brett Favre

Seriously, did you see this turn of events happening 3 years ago? Michael Vick is the most dynamic player in the NFL and a better QB than he ever was in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Brett Favre is mired in a 3-7 season with the Minnesota Vikings while being investigated by the NFL for allegedly sending pictures of his penis to this gir l.

I love sports.

2010-11 Men's College Basketball (Mini) Preview

2010-11-08T19:56:00.001-05:00

I always love my college basketball previews. They're short and not exactly sweet. I list 8 teams. My final four and my four final four sleepers (current non top 15 teams). I usually hit on a few final four picks (2 of my four last year). A few weeks ago, I would have had Purdue in here, but Purdue will be without star forward Robbie Hummel this season. And with Hummel went Purdue's national title chances. Without further space-filling, here are my 2010 college basketball picks:

Final Four:
Duke
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State

I know it's chalk. Find me the last non-chalk team to win the National Championship. Thanks.

Final Four Sleepers:
Temple
Brigham Young
Baylor
Washington

That is all. Proceed to not pay attention to college basketball again until after the college football season wraps. See you in mid-January.

World Series Preview

2010-10-27T19:21:00.001-04:00

I nailed the Divisional Round of the playoffs with stunning accuracy (for me). I then struck out looking, like Ryan Howard in my LCS predictions. So take this World Series primer with either a grain of salt, or as scripture.

Game 1: Cliff Lee v. Tim Lincecum
Advantage: Rangers. I like the Rangers to win Game 1 easily. I see no reason why Cliff Lee, pitching in an expansive park, against a bunch of free swinging hitters, can't replicate his playoff success. Lincecum, on the other hand, has the real difficult task of facing the best lineup he's seen all year. Even the bottom of Texas' lineup (save for Cliff Lee of course) is hitting over .300 this postseason. It's a real marquee matchup, but Lee's track record combined with the lineup he's facing, wins out. Texas wins 3-0.

Game 2: CJ Wilson v. Matt Cain
Advantage: Rangers. Cain, on the surface, is the logical choice. No one walked more batters in baseball this year than did CJ Wilson. However, the Giants aren't exactly a bunch of patient hitters. I think Wilson can pitch effectively against the Giants lineup. Cain was phenomenal in his only LCS start against Philadelphia, which will be 9 days ago by the time he toes the rubber. Cain also walks a lot of batters. This Rangers lineup will make him pay for that in a way that San Francisco's won't to Wilson. Texas wins 5-3.

Game 3: Jonathan Sanchez v. Colby Lewis
Advantage: Rangers. I don't expect Colby Lewis to pitch in Game 3 of the World Series like he did in Game 6 of the ALCS, even against the Giants. And I think that Sanchez won't pitch as poorly in Game 3 of the World Series as he did in Game 6 of the NLCS. This is a really interesting matchup. Two completely dissimilar pitchers facing two dissimilar lineups. The Rangers trot out a lot of right-handed batters and I think that could be an issue for Sanchez, who also gives up a ton of walks and is facing a patient lineup. Texas wins, on a hunch, 7-3.

Game 4: Madison Bumgarner v. Tommy Hunter
Advantage: Giants. Not even close. Giants stay alive 6-2.

Game 5: Tim Lincecum v. Cliff Lee
Advantage: Giants. This is where I think the luster starts to wear off a bit on the Cliff Lee playoff mystique. Again, a hunch, but that's what all of this stuff is. Lee has always pitched in the postseason under some sort of pressure (Game 1s, a big swing Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, a huge Game 5 at Tampa). Here he is coming in up 3-1, after having shut down the Giants in Game 1. Maybe the fire isn't there. It will be there for Lincecum. Giants win 3-1.

Game 6: CJ Wilson v. Matt Cain
Advantage: Rangers. Barely. I was very tempted to force this to a seventh game. I didn't. Rangers win 6-5.

Final Prediction: Rangers win 4-2.

Some Thoughts:

-Any talk about how Texas' hitters are 0-19 against Giants closer Brian Wilson (I'm looking your way Buster Olney) seems foolish to me. That is not an x-factor statistic. No one is expecting Brian Wilson to be the x-factor here. He's not going to blow saves like he's Byung Hyun-Kim here. He's an elite closer, so it's no surprise the Rangers have struggled to hit him. If the Giants can get it to B-dub, with the lead, I expect them to win. However, there are 8 innings with which they'll have to find a way to take a lead in to get the ball to their closer.

-I expect Buster Posey to slump horribly in this series. But for one solid game against the Phillies, Posey has been disappointing thus far in his first playoff adventure. Yes, he's a rookie with a lot of weight on his shoulders, but that's no reason to just say, "Oh, well it's not his fault." It is. He's in the #4 hole for a reason, people. The pressure is there. The Giants need a good series from Posey to beat the Rangers.

-Vlad Guerrero playing in RF isn't really that big of a deal. We (and by "we" I mean the media, of which I am not a member) make a big deal about DHs having to play in the field in the World Series. Tell me the last time it's truly affected the outcome of a game.

-The Giants have the bullpen edge. Big time.

-The Rangers have the offensive edge. Big time.

-The teams are closer in starting pitching than you'd think.

-Series MVP: Elvis Andrus.

-Oh, and Cliff Lee will sign with the Yankees for $140 million over 7 years.

Enjoy this World Series. I heard it said this week, don't worry about the ratings. If you're a baseball fan, this is a dream scenario. Ratings mean nothing to you. And it's true. The crowds in San Francisco and Arlington will be electric. This will be a fun series, even if the Rangers sweep. Two teams that are easy to root for, with a lot of really good guys. This will be a nice end to a very good MLB season.

America and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad NFC

2010-10-25T18:03:00.002-04:00

Quick. Find 21 friends. Okay, that's not that easy for most people. So just find 21 people. Now, assign each of them and yourself a football position. Done? Good, now you're a contender for the 2010 NFC championship.

Heading into tonight's Cowboys/Giants game, here's the breakdown of the records for the 16 NFC teams:

5-2: 1 Team
4-2: 3 Teams
4-3: 5 Teams
3-3: 1 Team
3-4: 1 Team
2-4: 1 Team
1-4: 1 Team
1-5: 2 Teams
1-6: 1 Team

That would be 10 of the 16 teams within 2 games of first place Atlanta in the NFC. And the thing is, trying to pick a favorite is seemingly impossible. Almost everyone has something that could make them a favorite and at the same time, has a glaring issue that makes them very vulnerable. Let's look at each of the contending teams (sorry San Francisco, Carolina, and Detroit) and the reason why they can win, and the reason why they shouldn't win the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad NFC.

Atlanta (5-2)
They Can Win Because....They've got a weapon at every offensive position, are well coached, and play really well at home.
They Shouldn't Win Because....They're a different team away from the Georgia Dome. 3-0 at home. 2-2 on the road (the wins are against Cleveland and New Orleans). Also, they're pass defense ranks 28th in the NFL and when you have the home field advantage of playing in a dome, teams are going to throw on you. Like Cincinnati did yesterday. For 385 yards.

New York Giants (4-2)
They Can Win Because....They're very good on defense. 2nd against the pass. 7th against the run. And they're a veteran bunch, led by a veteran coach.
They Shouldn't Win Because...Eli Manning seems willing to throw an INT for every TD he throws this season. And if you look at their schedule, the best team they've played thus far is either Indianapolis or Tennessee. They were blown out in both of those games. But they did just beat the Lions by 8. At home.

Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
They Can Win Because....They play in an atrocious division and have a very good defense (third fewest points allowed in the NFL). And unlike Atlanta, they have a real home field advantage.
They Shouldn't Win Because...Pete Carroll is their head coach. I've chided this team from the start and I'm perplexed by their 4-2 start. Their leading receiver weighed 260 LBS and was out of football last year. And Matt Hasselbeck has been shaky, at best. Do you trust him to lead your team to the promised land?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
They Can Win Because....They're young, hungry, and they've learned how to win the games that they should, like yesterday's against the Rams.
They Shouldn't Win Because...They're coached by Raheem Morris, have an awful rush defense, and an awful running game. Oh, and that youth thing? Also can be a disadvantage.

Chicago Bears (4-3)
They Can Win Because...Their defense is very good, when they show up and play hard for 60 minutes.
They Shouldn't Win Because....Let's see, they turn the ball over like it's a hobby, they have no offensive balance, Matt Forte is wasting away in Mike Martz's outdated offense, Jay Cutler is going to get killed with these preposterous 7 step drops, oh, and their defense isn't good enough to carry them, because they have lapses where they allow people like Ryan Torain to rush for 120+ yards on them.

Green Bay Packers (4-3)
They Can Win Because...They can throw the ball down your throat.
They Shouldn't Win Because....They're just too injured. Everywhere. It started with Ryan Grant in week 1. They're without Nick Barnett and Atari Bigby on the defensive side. Charles Woodson isn't playing like he did last year. Clay Matthews Jr. is playing hurt. And the biggest loss of all, Jermichael Finley, their stud TE, is done for the season. It's a lot to ask of Aaron Rodgers.

New Orleans Saints (4-3)
They Can Win Because...They did last year. And Reggie Bush will be back soon.
They Shouldn't Win Because...They did last year. And they haven't put that past them. They can say all they want to that last year's Super Bowl is old news, but when you lose at home, like they did yesterday, to the Cleveland Browns (who are being led by a 3rd string rookie QB, no less) there's got to be a pretty heavy hangover.

Washington Redskins (4-3)
They Can Win Because....They're winning the close ones. They've only been involved in one game with a result of more than one TD (a questionable loss to the Rams.)
They Shouldn't Win Because...Their defense. Is. Awful. Second to last against the pass and 21st of 32 against the run. They don't do anything well. So far, they've done enough to get by. They've bent, but not broken. Who's to say they won't crumble?

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)
They Can Win Because...They're so balanced offensively (Top 10 in both passing and rushing) and Michael Vick is on his way back.
They Shouldn't Win Because....Of games like yesterday's. There's no way that the Eagles should get blown out by the Titans. But they did. They have this electricity that makes them elite, but that only comes out once every 3 or 4 weeks. You can't do that and hope to win a trip to the Super Bowl.

Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
They Can Win Because...They're really good at home and play in a really bad division. And that formula has worked before.
They Shouldn't Win Because...Good heavens, are they awful. Easily the worst 3-3 team I've ever seen. Offensively, they rank 32nd in passing (dead last) and 29th in rushing. Defensively, they're 21st against the pass and 29th against the rush. They do nothing well and are led by an undrafted, 25 year old, rookie quarterback, who is 5'11'' and hasn't thrown a TD in 4 games played. Good enough for you?

St. Louis Rams (3-4)
They Can Win Because...They're like the Buccaneers. Young and hungry.
They Shouldn't Win Because...They're led by a rookie QB. I can't name more than 10 players on their active roster and I follow sports like my life depends on it. And, most importantly, they haven't quite learned how to win the games that they should win, like yesterday's against Tampa Bay. But they could easily be 4-4 heading into their bye week, with a game against Carolina this Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
They Can Win Because...They're the best team in the NFC. They just haven't realized it yet.
They Shouldn't Win Because...It's getting close to being too late to realize it. They're led by the NFL's all-time leader in every major passing statistic, the best running back in the game, the NFC's best offensive line, a future Hall-of-Fame receiver, the most electric skill player in the conference, and a veteran defense. And yet they're 2-4. And I think the record is the only thing standing in their way. And themselves.

Dallas Cowboys (1-4)
They Can Win Because....They're the second best team in the NFC. And they actually know it.
They Shouldn't Win Because...They're so poorly coached. How it is that such a good football team is close to being 1-5 is beyond me. Every loss has been a close one because they've beaten themselves. They're 3rd in passing and no NFL team has allowed fewer yards on defense. If you eliminated one bone-headed play per game, this entire post would be irrelevant because they'd be 5-0. Instead, they're close to becoming irrelevant.

So who's got it? Well, a few weeks ago, I picked the Giants. I also think Michael Vick changes the Eagles. He makes them electric every week, potentially. And Minnesota was within a few inches on a Brett Favre pass from being a game back in the North. And a win tonight could really put the Cowboys on track. And there's always the Falcons. They're a boring bunch. Nothing sexy there, but in such a weird season, maybe, for once, sexy isn't en vogue. Last year, it was the Saints and their great story line. They had hero QB Drew Brees and a reenergized city. They were sexy. But now, maybe perfectly mediocre is good enough to get the job done in 2010. And if so, why not the Falcons? Or the Seahawks? Or the Bears? Right now, the NFC is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad conference. But I have a feeling, come mid-December, we're going to be in for some pretty great, fun, and thrilling football, as all of these teams scramble for that one playoff berth that could lead them to the promised land.

Until they get thrashed by the Jets in the Super Bowl.

A Story About A Man Named Cliff

2010-10-18T19:25:00.000-04:00

Last week, in my ALCS preview, I mentioned that I think Cliff Lee might be a

better pitcher than Randy Johnson and the best since Sandy Koufax. Before

we get into that discussion though, let's take a look back at how Cliff Lee

got here.

Lee was a 4th round draft pick by the Montreal Expos in 2000 out of the

University of Arkansas. He was traded by the Expos (along with Brandon

Phillips and Grady Sizemore) in what may be the worst trade in the history

of professional sports to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon in 2002.

In his debut for the Indians that year, he threw 5.1 innings, striking out 4

and walking four. It would be the beginning of what looked like would be a

mediocre, back of the rotation career.

From his debut until the end of the 2007 season, Lee was nothing if not

average. His W-L record was good, but his numbers weren't spectacular. He

showed signs of brilliance during his 2004 season, when he finished fourth

in AL Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA. But he walked 52

batters that season, for a pedestrian 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Lee would go on to drop off from there, landing himself back in the minors

in 2007 after a disastrous stretch that had him fighting with teammates and

provoking Indians fans who were unhappy with his performance. He finished

2007 with the following statistical line:

5-8, 6.29 ERA, 72 ERA+, 1.6 HR/9, 1.83 K/BB ratio, etc, etc.

He was a disaster. He had become a progressively worse pitcher over time

and was a 28 year old minor leaguer in 2007. Then something happened.

In 2008, Lee won the Cy Young award, easily. Compare the above line in 2007

to this one:

22-3, 2.54 ERA, 168 ERA+, 0.5 HR/9, 5.00 K/BB ratio, etc. etc.

Since then, Cliff Lee has been the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he

struck out 185 batters and walked 18 (10.28 K/BB ratio), for example.

As good as Lee has been over the past 3 seasons, he has been that much

better in the postseason. His combined numbers:

6-0, 1.44 ERA, 6 BB, 54 K, 1 HR allowed in having faced 211 batters.

So here we are. Lee has only been an elite pitcher for 3 years, and at the

age of 32, probably doesn't have 10 more years of pitching in him. So it's

hard to compare against the careers of guys like Randy Johnson and Steve

Carlton. Looking at the numbers that Johnson put up from 1999-2002 alone, I realize

that I'm an idiot for even thinking about comparing Johnson to Lee. They're

not even close. Johnson was at the top of his career during that stretch,

won 17 games or more each year, never had an ERA above 2.64, and struck out

at least 334 batters in each of those four seasons. If a 10+ strikeout game

is considered an elite benchmark for a pitcher, consider if you would that

Johnson struck out 10+ batters 23 times in 2001 alone.

The comparison becomes slightly more fair when we look at postseason

pitching performances. Johnson, in his postseason career:

7-9, 3.50 ERA, 32 BB, 132 K, 15 HR allowed in having faced 493 batters.

Lee has him beat across the board, except for strikeouts, which were

Johnson's specialty. And even then, Lee is only averaging one fewer

strikeout over 9 innings in his postseason career than Johnson did.

So perhaps I should have qualified my statement as being postseason

relative. For that, let's look at another great lefty pitcher of this era,

Steve Carlton, and his postseason success:

6-6, 3.26 ERA, 51 BB, 84 K, 7 HR allowed in having faced 429 batter.

Again, more experience than Lee, but Lee's numbers are better across the

board.

Now, Sandy Koufax, widely regarded as the best left-handed, postseason

pitcher of this era. His career playoff numbers:

4-3, 0.95 ERA, 11 BB, 61 K, 2 HR allowed in having faced 213 batters.

Lee: 56.1 IP, 6-0, 1.44 ERA, 6 BB, 54 K, 1 HR allowed in having faced 211

batters.

Koufax: 57.0 IP, 4-3, 0.95 ERA, 11 BB, 61 K, 2 HR allowed in having faced

213 batters.

Remarkably similar, no?

So, what's the point? Well, it's pretty simple. While Cliff Lee hasn't

quite built up the regular season resume to make it even worth comparing him

to the best left-handed pitchers of this era in baseball, he has

more than built up the postseason resume to do so. Ignore Koufax's W-L

record (which, again, is meaningless, because he did everything he could to

help the Dodgers and got no run support (in his three postseason losses, he

was given a total of 1 run to work with.)). When you do, you have

nearly the same pitcher. The other great lefties of this era (Johnson and

Carlton, namely) don't have the postseason resumes to belong in the

conversation with Lee and Koufax. They are the two best postseason

left-handed pitchers in the modern era of baseball.

Back to Lee, exclusively; There will always be a stigma with him. There

will always be those who don't want to give him the credit he has proven

that he deserves. Much as people did with Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays

this season, people will continue to think back to 2007 Cliff Lee and refuse

to believe that he's put that period of his career fully behind him.

They'll wait and anticipate the collapse. But Cliff Lee of 2010 is not

Cliff Lee of 2007. He's a smarter pitcher. He's a more effective pitcher.

He's a more mature pitcher.

Tonight, Cliff Lee will start his second postseason game at Yankee

Stadium. In his previous start, he threw a complete game, ten strikeout,

gem of a performance against the Yankees. It was the most dominant

postseason performance in my lifetime, and it was done on the biggest stage,

in the World Series, against the most successful franchise in sports

history, in their home park.

Tonight, if Lee pitches like that again, he will own sole claim as the

greatest left-handed pitcher in modern postseason history.

Championship Series Preview

2010-10-15T19:10:00.001-04:00

(Editor's Note: I wrote this in a frenzy to get it up before Game 1 between Texas and New York tonight. I will edit this later. Please disregard my typing errors for now.)

The gods of baseball were very kind to us. We could have been staring down a two week relationship with the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves in the NL and the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL. Think about those ratings. I vividly remember reading, back in 1998, the notion that ABC executives would be flinging themselves off of headquarters if they were left with Kansas State in the national championship game that year. Thankfully for them, Texas A&M upset the Wildcats in the Big XII title game and instead, ABC executives were treated to Peyton Manning and the Tennessee Volunteers, beating Bobby Bowden's Florida State Seminoles. I was upset though. I really enjoyed that year's Kansas State team. As I've grown older though, I've learned to appreciate marquee matchups, even if I don't have a true rooting interest. Because I can always develop one if it's not already there. Because there's something special about the marquee. And that's what we're getting this year in baseball. Not Kansas State and Tennessee. We're getting the best pitchers in the game, historic blue-bloods, and easy-to-love up and comers from a major media market. So, rejoice Fox and TBS executives. The gods were kind to you, like they were to ABC in 1998.

ALCS: New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers

Breakdown- The Rangers are the aforementioned "up-and-comer" and I love watching them. Their weakness lies in their pitching depth. Cliff Lee is as good as it gets in baseball and perhaps as good as it has been, for a left-handed pitcher, since Sandy Koufax. And that includes Randy Johnson (I expect a post about this sometime next week, but feel free to call me insane for that comment now.). After Lee comes Game 1 starter CJ Wilson, a free-thinking, straight edge, finesse pitcher who considers himself the poor man's Cliff Lee. And it works. To have two solid lefty starters, in their prime, is an asset. For Texas though, the question after Lee and Wilson, is who's next? Tommy Hunter's numbers might look good to the old-timers (13-4 regular season) but for those of us who can understand tangible stats, Hunter is just an average, back-of-the-rotation guy. And Colby Lewis is more of the same. Perhaps the poor man's version of Tommy Hunter. Two starters, in a seven game series, is not enough. You need the third guy.

The Yankees may have the third guy in Phillip Hughes, and even though he struggled mightily in the regular season, AJ Burnett certainly has the potential to be that third guy.

The Yankees offense is as good as Texas' and vice versa. The X-factor is Neftali Feliz, Texas' closer. He was lights out during the regular season, but someone forgot to tell him to turn off the lights in the ALDS. He was awful. Couldn't find the strike zone and when he did, he couldn't place his pitches.

Ultimately, I think Texas' run will come to an end. I'll be rooting for them, but the Yankees experience and their experienced closer, Mariano Rivera, will get the job done. Yankees win in 6.

NLCS: San Francisco Giants v. Philadelphia Phillies

Breakdown- This marquee matchup has all the makings of a classic. The Giants were the only team who could hit the Phillies Big 3 in the regular season and the Phillies struggled with the Giants rotation. However, Philadelphia comes in hotter than anyone. They eviscerated the Cincinnati Reds in 3 games, no-hitting them in one game. Philly didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball though against the Reds mediocre pitching, which has a lot of people concerned.

The key matchup in this series is not tomorrow night's showdown between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum. It is instead Sunday's showdown between Jonathan Sanchez and Roy Oswalt and Tuesday's between Matt Cain and Cole Hamels. I like the Phillies in the latter two games. So whether they go into game 4 up 2-1, or down 3-0 won't matter to me. This is a team, Philadelphia, that knows how to step on an opponents throat. They know how to win a postseason series. And they're peaking at the right time. For me, this is disappointing because I don't need a reason to root for the Giants. If you are a long-time reader, you know I root for the Giants at almost any time. I just think Philly is too good right now for the Giants and their lackluster offense to contend with. Philadelphia wins in 5.

NFL Power Rankings: Version The First One

2010-10-12T19:05:00.002-04:00

Sadly, no commentary from me on the state of Brett Favre's cell phone camera. Before I take inventory of the NFL through a power rankings type list, let's take a quick look at the Major League Baseball playoffs. Not to toot my own horn (I'M AWESOME!!!!) but I've hit each series nearly dead on so far, as we head into Game 5 between Texas and Tampa Bay tonight at the Trop. I expect the Rangers to win this game thanks to another masterful playoff performance by Cliff Lee. David Price did not look good in Game 1. His pitch selection was awful (he threw 21 consecutive fastballs to start the game) and he got hit hard by everyone in Texas' lineup. If I'm Texas, I'm nervous about this becoming a bullpen game because Neftali Feliz probably shouldn't pitch in this game, considering how bad he's looked in his first playoff go-round. My prediction: 5-1 win for Texas. Lee pitches 8 innings, striking out 8 and walking none. Someone (Darren O'Day perhaps) closes out the ninth for the Rangers, who move on to a seven game series with the Yankees, that likely won't go seven games.

We're heading into a separation Sunday sort of day for the NFL. A handful of teams will have their season made or broken this week. Here are the five most important matchups:

Baltimore @ New England- A huge test for both teams. New England needs to show some defensive growth. Baltimore needs to shred the Patriots' young D.

Dallas @ Minnesota- The loser is done for the 2010 season, as they will fall to 1-4.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta- Are the Falcons for real? Can Kevin Kolb keep the Eagles afloat? And how awesome would it have been to have had Michael Vick starting this game?

Miami @ Green Bay- The Dolphins need a win against a good team to prove their worth. And Green Bay needs to show some life.

Indianapolis @ Washington- The Redskins can create a believer or two with a win over the Colts in front of a national audience.

I've never been a big fan of the power rankings you see published by national media outlets, where all 32 teams are measured against each other. So here are our divisional power rankings, after 5 weeks of the NFL season:

AFC East

1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills

- The Jets have beaten the Patriots and the Dolphins, which lands them the top spot. For most people's money, their biggest weakness is Quarterback. Mark Sanchez has a passer rtg. of 91.7 (higher than Aaron Rodgers) and is the only starting QB in the NFL without an interception thrown. He might not look like an elite quarterback all the time, but Sanchez is effective enough. As for the Patriots and Dolphins, I think they're very close, but I give the Patriots the advantage because they beat Miami on the road. Buffalo will have the first pick in the draft and might go 0-16. Their only shot at a win comes in mid-November when Detroit comes to Buffalo.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals

- Yes, Cincinnati beat Baltimore in Week 2, but that looks like the high point for the 2010 Bengals. Meanwhile, the Ravens have gotten better each week and have to be feeling great after Ray Rice had his best game of 2010. The Ravens are like the Jets, in that their perceived weakness is at the QB position. Joe Flacco though, unlike Mark Sanchez, has been awful thus far, which keeps the Ravens behind the Steelers. And while Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in Week 4, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger, who comes back this week. The Steelers defense has been outstanding so far and I don't see that stopping. I like Cleveland more than Cincinnati because the Bengals look like a team that is on the verge of quitting on their coach, while the Browns fight hard every week.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

-I know that the Colts have already lost to both Houston and Jacksonville, but I would remind you that they're still tied for first in this underratedly bad division. And who do you want quarterbacking your average team? Peyton Manning or David Garrard? I rest my case.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders

- Call me a non-believer in the Chiefs. Matt Cassel is not the quarterback of the future or the present for this team. His unsteady leadership is what is holding back Jamaal Charles from breaking out. Dexter McCluster should be touching the ball 20 times a game, but isn't. And Dwayne Bowe has been more than awful at receiver. And it all goes back to Cassel's play. The Chiefs don't have a consistent enough passing game and that's hurting everything else on offense. The Chargers, meanwhile, can score on anyone, but can't stop anyone. Denver runs the ball like an Arena League team. And Oakland is hinging all of its hopes on Bruce Gradkowski staying healthy. This division is the NFL's version of Jersey Shore. It's painful to look at, but it sure is fun. For some people. Not me. I like real football. I'll tip my cap towards the Chargers because they do what they do well the best of anyone here.

NFC East

1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

-Michael Vick's health would push the Eagles to my number one spot, but in his absence, we're going with the Giants and their improved defense and improving running game. Eli Manning, though, needs to be a lot more careful with the football. The Eagles just need Kevin Kolb to manage games until Vick returns. The defense isn't good, but it's good enough in the East. Washington is an enigma to me and not worth talking about. And Dallas just isn't worth talking about.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions

-The Vikings are either going to be a hot rod that will race to the top of this division or the wheels will fall off. I don't know why, but I'm leaning towards them coming from behind to win the race. They've only played one division game and they won it. They can do some damage. Chicago is playing well, but Mike Martz's genius offense isn't so smart in Chicago in November and December. They will collapse. And I don't know what's wrong with Green Bay, other than them clearly buying into the hype. Much like the Saints. Speaking of which....

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers

- The Falcons showed that they can beat New Orleans in Week 3. And I know they're better than Tampa Bay. They should be able to win this division rather easily. They're good everywhere, but not great. They're solid, not sexy. I don't see a Super Bowl run in them, but they're a functional playoff team. You may be shocked by Tampa over New Orleans, but you'll see this Sunday when these two teams play in Tampa that the Bucs are for real. Josh Freeman has progressed hugely in his second season and the young defense has done a good job so far in 2010. I know that Pittsburgh manhandled them in Week 3. But Pittsburgh is a lot better than every team in the South, including the Saints. I wasn't high on New Orleans coming into the season and I'm still not sold on them. Drew Brees has been nothing short of mediocre thus far. The injury to Reggie Bush has hurt an already weak running game. And Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have regressed this season. The offense is nowhere near as good as it was in 2010. And the defense was never that good to begin with. (See: Giving up 30 points to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals. And they should have lost to San Francisco too.)

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers

-Here we have the worst team winning a division and the best team finishing in last. This describes the NFC very well. While Dallas, Minnesota, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay are all struggling to stay relevant, the St. Louis Rams (led by a rookie quarterback), the Arizona Cardinals (led by an undrafted rookie quarterback), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (led by a second year quarterback) are all playing above their heads. I like the energy in St. Louis. They're by no means a good football team, but neither are the Cardinals, Seahawks, or Niners. Sam Bradford has shown flashes of greatness. As for Arizona, I have a very hard time buying into Max Hall as an NFL QB. And I still think Seattle is awful, but if their defense can continue playing well, led by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Earl Thomas, I might have to eat my crow. And for those who think San Francisco is still going to win this division, you clearly haven't watched this team play.

At the start of the year, I predicted Green Bay and Baltimore would play in the Super Bowl. I'm changing my mind on both teams. Baltimore hasn't gotten the QB play it needs and Ray Rice has been inconsistent. I like the Jets to win the AFC. I think Mark Sanchez can manage a game well enough to let the defense win almost every week. In the NFC, I cannot see Green Bay putting it together without any running game. Aaron Rodgers needs something. I'm not too concerned with his absence for a week or two with a concussion nearly as much as I am with the fact that when he returns, the team will likely be .500 and facing a Minnesota team that won't have to plan for the run. In the NFC, you can a feather into a hurricane and see where it lands. For right now, I like the Giants or Eagles. I'll be cute and take the Giants so that we have an all-New York Super Bowl, played in Dallas.

Early Season Awards:

NFL MVP: Michael Vick. The Eagles with Vick looked like an unstoppable force. If he returns soon and stays healthy, he'll win this award. Peyton Manning also deserves so pub, except his team is 3-2 and 0-2 in the division. I'd put Phillip Rivers third on this list for now, with Tom Brady a distant 4th.

NFL Def. POY: Troy Polamalu. Not even close.

NFL Off. ROY: Jahvid Best. He gets the nod over Sam Bradford.

NFL Def. ROY: Earl Thomas. Game changing safety. Much better than I thought he'd be.

NFL Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris. Has turned Tampa from a joke to a tough, young football team. They're the NFL's Oklahoma City Thunder from two years ago.

2010 MLB Divisional Series Preview

2010-10-05T18:58:00.001-04:00

(editor's note: This was written on Monday October 4th)

As I write this, I'm watching the minor train wreck that is the New York Mets hold a press conference discussing the team's future. Earlier today, they fired GM Omar Minaya and Manager Jerry Manuel, about two years too late. Minaya was an abhorrent failure in New York as GM. The Mets minor league system is in the bottom 1/3 of MLB and the Major League club isn't exactly awash in great talent, outside of David Wright, Johan Santana, and amateur boxer Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets developed the nickname "The Mess" this year. And that shouldn't change in 2011.

Also today, the Pittsburgh Pirates fired manager John Russell. I know nothing about John Russell, but here's what I do know: Russell was given the "opportunity" to manage an overmatched group of top prospects (Pedro Alvarez), good young players (Andrew McCutchen), failed prospects (Lastings Milledge), and replacement players (Delwyn Young). And that was the good part. The bad part was the Pirates pitching. Zach Duke, Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, and Brian Burres all saw a little too much of the pitching mound. The lone bright spot from a pitching standpoint, to me, was James McDonald, who came over from the Dodgers and showed some promise for the future. Sadly, for James and the Pirates and their great fans, he'll likely be the Opening Day starter in 2011.

But we're not hear to talk about 2011, are we? We're here to look ahead to what should be a great postseason.

The American League gives us two interesting matchups. First, we've seen Minnesota play the New York Yankees quite a bit in the playoffs. In fact, they've met 4 times in the ALDS in the last ten years. But there's something different about this matchup. First, the Twins have home field advantage. Second, the Yankees pitching is not very good. Third, the Twins have that really pretty new park, Target Field. You know what's not different? The fact that the Yankees will win this series. Just like they have every other time they've played. The difference maker? Clearly the offense. The absence of Justin Morneau from Minnesota's lineup will hurt them in a way that it didn't during the regular season. The Yankees took 5 of 7 from the Twins during the regular season. If Minnesota can't get to CC Sabathia in Game 1, the playoffs won't be any different. The Yankees doubters will cite the fact that if the season started on August 1, New York would have finished last in the AL East. Those of us who aren't trying to be contradictory will cite that these are the New York Yankees. Yankees win 3-1.

The other ALDS matchup is far more interesting, because we haven't seen this one before. In my July "look-ahead" post, I talked about how much I was looking forward to this then potential matchup. " I'm giddy at the possibility of this series," I said. Well, I'm still giddy, especially for the first game which gives us the marquee pitching matchup of the DS games: Cliff Lee v. David Price. I expect the Rays to win Game 1. Game 2 is where it gets very interesting, with CJ Wilson facing James Shields and anything can happen from there. Back in July, I said that the Rays would win a very close 3-2 series. I'm going to flip-flop here and give this one to the Rangers, also 3-2. Tampa has struggled in Arlington, Texas over the past two season. If the Rays don't win the first two at home, they won't win the series. Rangers win 3-2.

In the National League, our first matchup pits the Phillies and Reds. This series will not be close. The Phillies pitching is way too good for Cincinnati to try to contend with and the Phillies offense is more stacked than the Reds. Philadelphia wins 3-0 in one of those series that is over before your realized it started.

On the other side, we have the Giants and Braves. The thing that jumps out at my first is that we'll get to see Jason Heyward and Buster Posey square off on the biggest stage of their young, promising careers. I expect both to struggle a bit. I like the Giants in this series because they're better stocked than Atlanta, who will have to win with an inferior pitching rotation and without Chipper Jones and, more importantly in this, the year 2010, Martin Prado. As always, this comes down to the ability of the road team (Atlanta) to steal a game on the road in the first two. I don't think the Braves can do that, based on pitching matchups (Lincecum/Cain vs. Lowe/Hanson). Atlanta can take a game at home, but it ultimately won't make a difference. Don't expect a lot of runs (think a few 3-1 games). Do expect a Giants win 3-1.

Before I go, I'd like to weigh in on the MLB Regular Season awards.

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton (His numbers, even without the month of September, are the reason why this team is where it is right now.)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (It's not even close. I don't care about pitcher wins. It's not 1978 anymore. Let's take a look at the stats to the right of that pesky "W." If we do, Hernandez blew away CC Sabathia and David Price).
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (I'd prefer Brian Matusz if this award was given away for performance in August and September, while ignoring May, June, and July. It isn't, so Feliz's solid year closing for Texas wins a cheapy).
AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona (Maybe I'm biased, but he trotted out a AAA lineup every day and nearly snuck into the playoffs. Sorry Ron Washington.)

NL MVP: Joey Votto (I give it to Votto for his consistent year, leading a division winner, with great production).
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Adam Wainwright is closer than most are giving him credit for).
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (This is the most compelling of the awards. Posey and Heyward put up very similar numbers. Heyward's WAR is 1.5 better than Posey's and he played from Day 1, and so I lean him. But Posey is just as deserving. I tend to think they should split the award).
NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black (No contest).

College Football: At The Quarter Post

2010-09-20T20:36:00.000-04:00

You might think that it's way too early to take inventory of the 2010 College Football season. But I'd argue, "Hey, we're 1/4 of the way through the season. And 1/4 is a fraction that people deem important for some reason." And so with that, let's take a quick conference-by-conference look at the landscape, along with some discussion of who's a real contender for a January trip to the desert, starting in boring-ville:

ACC
Wasn't this supposed to be Virginia Tech's conference to win? Or Miami's? Or Florida State's? Well, each of them has lost at least one game (two for Virginia Tech, including one to a very good FCS team in James Madison.) and looked pretty awful in doing so. Only two teams in the entire conference find themselves undefeated at this point (NC State and Boston College). The Wolfpack appear to be the better of those two, led by the very underrated Russell Wilson at QB. I was very tempted to go out on a limb and take the Pack as my ACC Other Division champion in my preview, but went chalk with the 'Noles. I'm rethinking that a little now, though we'll find out if NC State is for real after they finish a three week stretch with games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The defense has been good so far, albeit not against the best competition. Based on talent (and an easy conference schedule), Florida State still has to be this division's favorite, for now.

Georgia Tech has the biggest conference win, in beating North Carolina on Saturday and find themselves in the driver's seat for the Coastal crown. I still like Virginia Tech, as crazy as that sounds. They have an experienced quarterback, two great running backs and a young defense that will get better (because they have to). Georgia Tech does not have the offensive dynamism that Virginia Tech does. I see the Hokies bouncing back this week by laying a whopping on Boston College. And don't count out the Hurricane's, even though their offense did not look good against Ohio State. We'll find out a lot about the Canes on Thursday in Pittsburgh.

I'm not going to revise my conference championship picks, but I will point out that it won't matter because this conference is horrendous. One win against AQ teams from the other 5 conferences. (North Carolina State over Cincinnati). No team in this conference is a national title contender. Not even close.

Big East
I promise this will get interesting soon. There are only two undefeated teams in the Big East (West Virginia and Rutgers) and one of them nearly lost to Marshall, while the other's statement win this year was a 5 point victory over Florida International. Much like the ACC, only 1 team has a victory over an AQ team (West Virginia's over Maryland). Most people's trendy preseason sleeper pick (UConn) lost by 14 to Temple on Saturday. And last year's champion (Cincinnati) is about to start the season 1-3 after a trip to Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday. So this isn't quite the Big East's year.

Having seen every single play of Pittsburgh's season (one on TV and once in person), I'm still leaning in their direction for the conference championship, but where I would have argued that they were a dark horse in the national championship hunt back in August, I'd look like a doofus if I tried to argue that now. Inconsistent quarterbacking play, combined with the slow start by sophomore RB Dion Lewis have made Pittsburgh look very beatable (and in the case of Utah, beatable). Pitt's worth will be proven on Thursday against Miami. They'll lose that one, but it won't make a difference once they start playing the likes of Louisville and South Florida.

Big XII
Finally, a (sort of) real conference. The shocker on shock street so far, to me, has to be Kansas State who is 3-0, with two victories over AQ teams (UCLA and Iowa State). However, they're in the Big XII north and Nebraska looms large. I sold the Huskers very short in my season preview. They're very for real (I know, good English). I had my doubts about them traveling to Seattle to play Washington on Saturday, but the Huskers took the Huskies and the overrated Jake Locker to the woodshed. The defense is just as good as I thought, but the offense, led by freshman Taylor Martinez is electric. Nebraska is back and Nebraska is darned good.

In the south, Texas and Oklahoma have started 3-0, but the real surprise to me is Oklahoma State, who leads the nation in passing offense and is second in scoring, against 3 FBS opponents. And yes, they're all terrible (Washington State, Tulsa, and Troy), but still, kudos to Mike Gundy who is doing this without Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant. OK State's first test comes next Thursday in a game against also 3-0 Texas A&M, who just managed to squeak by Florida Int'l. on Saturday.

But, again, as always, this comes down to Saturday, October 2. Oklahoma and Texas. The only difference now is that I don't think the winner of that game has the inside track on the conference title. Right now, I give that to Nebraska.

Big Ten
Ohio State. I didn't want to believe in Terrelle Pryor. But I have to. Ohio State is too good. I can't seem them losing a game on that schedule, except maybe, just maybe, they don't take Iowa seriously enough when they travel to Iowa City in late November, a week before the Michigan game. I don't expect the Wolverines to be a challenge going forward. Yes, Shoelace Robinson is a great story and he's the Heisman front-runner right now (more on this later). But Michigan had a lot of defensive trouble with the Massachusetts Minutemen and there is not the offensive balance to survive a middle-of-the-pack conference. If Michigan was in the ACC or the Big East, I could see them finishing 10-2. In the Big Ten, they're closer to an 8-4 team. But that's an improvement.

I also don't expect Wisconsin to be a challenge. Call me cynical, but I have a hard time believing in a team that comes within a blocked PAT of needing overtime, at home, against the 8th best team from the Pac-10. Wisconsin can run the ball, but put 7 in the box and you've got them beaten. No elite athletes to contend with guys like Shoelace and Pryor.

Iowa is the interesting team because from what I saw on Saturday, they're not ready for the big-time (not that they ever are). Sure they were playing about 1700 miles from Iowa City in 101 degree Tucson, Arizona against a darn good football team. But those are games that you're supposed to win. Ohio State would have won that game (though Ohio State would never schedule something as ludicrous as a late game at Arizona in September). Iowa is a good football team, but they're Capital One Bowl good. They are not Rose Bowl good and, unlike Michigan, but just like Wisconsin, there's no potential for that to happen.

Pac-10
My favorite conference. Yes, the cachet is not to the level of the SEC. The hitting isn't as hard and the skill players aren't quite as fast. But there's some good football out west, if you can find a way to stay awake past 11 p.m.

Any Pac-10 review has to start with Oregon, who has set the world on fire, averaging 63 points a game. And the reason why they're so good? Their rushing ability. Oregon is averaging 380 yards per game on the ground. If your eyes just fell out of your skull, then I did my job. 380 YPG is an astounding number for a major conference program that can also throw the football (231 YPG). Air Force is averaging 399 YPG, but they're also 116th in passing. Oregon is 49th. And yes, they've played a bad New Mexico team, a down Tennessee team, and Portland State, but my gosh, they're racking up over 600 yards of offense per game. Oregon plays at Arizona State on Saturday before a showdown in Eugene on October 2 against Stanford.

The Cardinal possess my favorite quarterback in college football, Andrew Luck. Luck's mechanics are flawless, much like his 2010 numbers thus far: 45 of 70, 674 Yards, 10 TD, 0 INT. Stanford hasn't kept it close with anyone so far, with two 35 point wins (Sacramento State and UCLA) and a 44 point win over Wake Forest on Saturday. The Cardinal have an intriguing game on Saturday in South Bend against the Fighting Irish. If they and Ducks can make it to October 2nd unscathed, we may be looking at the Game of the Year in college football.

Beyond Stanford and Oregon, though Arizona and USC are lurking. USC, of course, has no postseason eligibility and is irrelevant to this conversation. Arizona, however, has a statement win under their belt (Iowa) and an NFL arm under center in Nick Foles. And, to boot, they have the nation's 9th best defense, statistically, under the guide of criminally insane head coach Mike Stoops. I expect Arizona to be 8-0 when they travel to Palo Alto to play Stanford on November 6. And if they can win that, their reward is back-to-back games against USC and at Oregon. No small feat.

SEC
I'm going to get it out of the way now and just say that I was dead wrong in my touting of Florida. I thought that they could play through or around John Brantley as he developed into their quarterback. They can't and he won't. He does not look to have it. He resembles Chris Leak early on in his tenure. And that is magnified more by the man he's replacing (Tim Tebow) and what he accomplished at Florida. The offense looks lost. The skill players don't look skilled. And you can only rely on your defense so much before you run into a team like Alabama (October 2) and get the snot beaten out of you. Right now, Florida does not look like a team that can beat Alabama. Or LSU. Or Florida State for that matter.

South Carolina, on the other hand, looks like the best of the SEC East. The road isn't easy for the Gamecocks (at Auburn this Saturday and home against Alabama in two weeks). But they look like a team that can win with defense, and that's the SEC mantra. So long as Stephen Garcia can protect the football and they continue to get production out of Marcus Lattimore, they'll be the Eastern representative in Atlanta in early December.

Out West, it's a race for second place. There are not enough good things I can say about Alabama and how great they look. They're 17th in Passing Offense and 13th in Rushing Offense. They're 9th in scoring offense and 2nd in scoring defense. They're fast. They're physical. They run complex defensive schemes that college quarterbacks cannot figure out. They're well-coached. And they're so, so deep on both sides of the ball. They're unstoppable. Their next 3 games come against ranked opponents (at Arkansas, home against Florida, and at South Carolina). You can color me shocked if they slip up in any of those games. Because they shouldn't. They've played at 3/4 speed in their first three games and dismantled San Jose State, Penn State, and Duke. Just look out for them when they play at full speed.

The race for second comes down to LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas, all of whom are inherently flawed in some way. LSU isn't good enough offensively. Auburn isn't good enough defensively. And Arkansas is so one-sided offensively, that a team like Alabama will key in on Ryan Mallet and make his life miserable for 60 minutes. Arkansas is the favorite to me, with Auburn the wild card. The Tigers have looked very beatable against both Mississippi State and Clemson, but they've beaten both teams, when, at least in the case of the Clemson game, they shouldn't have. And Cameron Newton is only going to get better, in my opinion. Some consistency in the backfield from Michael Dyer or Onterio McCalebb would help Newton immensely, but it's the defense that is the concern. I can't see them stopping teams who do one thing very well (South Carolina running the ball/Arkansas throwing). There's not enough depth. Arkansas is the choice because they do what they do best, best. But second place in the SEC West is only going to get you the Cotton Bowl. And we're playing for title games here.

Big Picture
So, who's going to the title game at this point in the season? Well, Alabama certainly. The Crimson Tide are the best team in college football, bar none. Behind them, you've got Ohio State, TCU, Boise State, Oregon, Stanford, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, in some order. Sadly, though, this comes down to numbers. Primarily the number "0," which is what I see Ohio State finishing the season with as it pertains to losses. They just look to be a step better than their competition on all levels of the game. That'll leave out undefeated TCU, Boise, and potential undefeateds Nebraska, Oregon, Oklahoma, etc.

Look, anything can happen in the next 3/4. Did you see Jacksonville State beating Ole Miss? Or Denard Robinson accounting for 94% of Michigan's offense against Notre Dame? Or so-called top NFL prospect Jake Locker going 4-20 against Nebraska? Or Nevada crushing California? No. It's college football and anything can happen on Saturdays (and Fridays and Thursdays too). All of this could be wrong. Alabama could take one game for granted against a South Carolina or an Auburn and lose. Ohio State could get cocky and get beaten by unranked Minnesota. One thing, though is for certain, so far: Alabama and Ohio State are the two best teams in the country, on paper. But, honey, they don't play these games on paper. They play them on Saturdays.

Heisman Front-Runners
1. Denard Robinson (QB/Michigan)
2. Terrelle Pryor (QB/Ohio State)
3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
4. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
5. Taylor Martinez (QB/Nebraska)

So, It's a Wide Receiver You'd Like?

2010-09-09T18:45:00.002-04:00

A few rookie-related follow-ups to my season preview before we get to the post at hand:

5 Rookies Destined to Breakout This Year:
Ryan Mathews (RB/San Diego)
Jordan Shipley (WR/Cincinnati)
Kyle Wilson (CB/New York Jets)
Eric Berry (S/Kansas City)
Ndamukong Suh (DT/Detroit)

5 First Rounders You Won't Hear a (Good) Thing From in 2010:
Tyson Alualu (DE/Jacksonville)
Dan Williams (DT/Arizona)
Earl Thomas (S/Seattle)
Jason Pierre-Paul (DE/New York Giants)
Kareem Jackson (CB/Houston)

Something occurred to me during my anti-Mike Williams (Seattle) rant yesterday in this space: How many times has a top-10 draft pick wideout turned into an elite producer, if only for one season? And so here we go.

First, to determine "elite" we need to create a statistical benchmark. Looking at the top performers in terms of receptions, yards, and TDs, over the last 10 NFL seasons, this is what I came up with:

-90 Receptions (Every league leader in the last 10+ years has finished with more than 100 receptions. For the sake of this argument, lets go with 90 as that gives us a top 5-8 for each year.)
-1400 Yards (Most of our league leaders over the past 10 years have finished well over 1400 yards with the exception of Chad Johnson in 2006 who finished with 1369, but that was an anomaly, as 1996 was the last time we had a league leader with under 1400 yards receiving.)
-9 TD (This is the tough one because you'd think the number should be higher, but it's not. Randy Moss led the NFL with 23 in 2007, but the next closest single-season league leader is Randy Moss with 17 in 2001. The average number of TDs for the league-leader over the last 10 seasons is 15. Moss's two seasons certainly boost that number up, so 9 seemed like a good (low) place to work from. Science!)

90 Rec, 1400 Yards, 9 TD. That's not asking for a lot from a top-10 draft pick is it? I mean, if you're going to use a Top-10 draft pick, you expect great production, no? Let's take a look:

Our next step is to list each WR taken in the top-10 of the NFL Draft since 2000. Here they are, in all of their, um, glory:

Peter Warrick (Florida State/Cincinnati)
Plaxico Burress (Michigan State/Pittsburgh)
Travis Taylor (Florida/Baltimore)
David Terrell (Michigan/Chicago)
Koren Robinson (North Carolina State/Seattle)
Charles Rogers (Michigan State/Detroit)
Andre Johnson (Miami/Houston)
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh/Arizona)
Roy Williams (Texas/Detroit)
Reggie Williams (Washington/Jacksonville)
Braylon Edwards (Michigan/Cleveland)
Troy Williamson (South Carolina/Minnesota)
Mike Williams (Southern California/Detroit)
Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech/Detroit)
Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio State/Miami)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland/Oakland)
Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech/San Francisco)

Some names certainly jump out there. Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson namely:

Andre Johnson's best statistical season? 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 8 TD
Larry Fitzgerald's best statistical season? 96 Receptions, 1431 Yards, 12 TD

Both pass my benchmark. Johnson falls short of the TD standard, but his other numbers more than make up for that difference. You would be surprised though to learn that Johnson has only caught more than 80 balls 3 times in his 7 seasons. Part of that falls on poor quarterbacking certainly, so again, he gets a bit of a pass, not that he needs it.

Fitzgerald on the other hand, has caught 90+ in 4 of his 6 seasons and has caught double digit TDs 4 times as well. Statistically, he's our man for this.

After Fitzgerald and Johnson though, who are we left with?

Plaxico Burress? 70 Rec, 1025 Yards, 12 TD. That doesn't pass my benchmark. Too few receptions and receiving yards. He becomes the "fade" guy in the red zone, which is why the TD number is so high.

Braylon Edwards? 80 Rec, 1289 Yards, 16 TD. But his next highest TD season? That would be 6 TD in 2006. He doesn't pass either. Again, lots of fades in the end zone. Also, can we call him elite based on his chairmanship of the Drops Hall of Fame?

Calvin Johnson? 78 Rec. 1331 Yards, 12 TD. Close, but no cigar. He has time though. And he has a QB throwing him the ball now. I think he gets there, but for now, it's still just Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald.

Peter Warrick? 79 Rec. 819 Yards, 7 TD. Not so much. A slot receiver with a low YAC (yards after catch) number. Pathetic actually. Peter Warrick enjoyed falling down after catches. He was a league-leader in that category.

Troy Williamson? 37 Rec. 455 Yards, 0 TD. Getting colder....Seriously, that's his most productive season. He was a top 10 pick.

Reggie Williams? 38 Rec. 628 Yards, 10 TD. You want to talk about a fades in the end zone guy? 25% of his catches were TDs.

Ted Ginn Jr.? 56 Rec. 790 Yards, 2 TD. Another candidate for the Peter Warrick "FAC (falls after catch) hall of fame.

Roy Williams? 82 Rec. 1310 Yards, 7 TD. Solid numbers. But as we've seen from Roy, this was an anomaly. His next best season? 63 Rec. 836 Yards, 5 TD. Big drop-off.

Travis Taylor? 61 Rec. 869 Yards, 6 TD. Hey, those are Roy Williams numbers!

Koren Robinson 78 Rec. 1240 Yards 5 TD. Probably a guy who could have been a step below elite, but still a #1 WR (think Greg Jennings) had he not had a penchant for abusing substances.

The rest of our guys are either too young to judge (Crabtree), clearly destined for a career with the Omaha Nighthawks (Heyward-Bey), or never amounted to anything (Terrell, Rogers, Mike Williams).

What we see from this information is that if you're looking to draft a wideout, perhaps you can wait until later in the 1st Round (Randy Moss), the 2nd Round (Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco Johnson), the 3rd Round (Hines Ward, Terrell Owens), or just sign an undrafted free agent (Miles Austin, Wes Welker) and build your team up at other positions (left tackle, defensive end, quarterback). You might be a lot better off. So the next time you see a receiver get drafted by your favorite team in the top 10 (that will be in 2011 when AJ Green and Julio Jones go there) don't hold your breath waiting for the next Larry Fitzgerald. History shows that you're more likely going to end up with the next Travis Taylor.

2010 NFC Preview

2010-09-08T20:26:00.001-04:00

Did you like reading yesterday's AFC preview? Did you not read it (it's below this one)? Do you want me to just get down to the NFC preview?

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Thought: Hype, hype, hype.
Vital Player: Mike Jenkins. This is a difficult team because I'm not sure that there's any truly "vital player." They're real deep everywhere. Roy Williams was an option, but much like with Darrius Heyward-Bey, I don't think he's going to be anything more than a locker room disease. Jenkins is my pick because the Cowboy don't have a ton of cornerback depth and Jenkins (a first-round pick in 2008) has been a bit of a disappointment. Terrence Newman ain't getting any younger on the other side of the field. Jenkins needs to become a number 1.
Best-Case: All this hype turns out to be more than hype and the Cowboys finally gel, destroy their competition, Romo throws for 4000 Yards and 30 TD and they finish 14-2, winning their first Super Bowl since 1996 and becoming the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Worst-Case: All this hype turns out to be hype and they struggle to stop other teams' passing attack, all the while not having much of one themselves, as Miles Austin regresses immensely from a monster year in 2009, leaving him dating a Kardashian cousin. The Cowboys finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Wade Phillips is fired.

New York Giants
Thought: Oh, no everyone, please continue not talking about the New York Giants.
Vital Player: Keith Bullock. The Giants defense was a joke last year. Bullock comes over from Tennessee with the expectation that he'll make their defense a whole lot less funny in 2010.
Best-Case: With lowered expectations, the Giants are a sneaky good team who can stop the run and defend the pass. The offense gets something out of Brandon Jacobs, as Ahmad Bradshaw has a breakout year as the lead rusher. The Giants finish 11-5 and march to the NFC title game.
Worst-Case: Or their defense is awful again. The addition of Bullock as well as of Antrel Rolle does nothing to shore up the D. Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul looks overmatched, drawing Vernon Gholston comparisons. Osi Uminyiora looks slower than Bengie Molina. Eli Manning throws interceptions like they're the hottest trend in fancy watches, Tom Coughlin gets fired, and the Giants finish the season 6-10.

Philadelphia Eagles
Thought: Why is it that I love Kevin Kolb so much?
Vital Player: Kevin Kolb. Not to put any pressure on you, Kevin Kolb, but the entire city of Philadelphia hates you, thinks you're going to fail, and if you do fail, you're life will be hell until you get traded or cut and get to play elsewhere. No pressure though.
Best-Case: Kevin Kolb shuts up the battery-throwers with back-to-back 300 yard passing games in the first two weeks. He plays consistently well, but not great, for the rest of the season. Think Jeff Garcia. The defense, a patchwork group if I've ever seen one, actually makes a lovely blanket for opposing offenses. LeSean McCoy rushes for 1000 yards. They win the East at 11-5 and fall in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Worst-Case: Kolb goes out and throws 5 INT in his first two games. The cries for "Mike Vick" or "Mike Kafka' begin. Kolb loses his confidence, but Andy Reid (the worst coach who people think is a good coach in the NFL) won't take the pressure off him by running the ball, instead leaving Kolb with this line in Week 5 against the 49ers: 12 of 32, 133 Yards, 0 TD, 4 INT. Mike Vick starts the following week against Atlanta and things only get worse from there. Oh, and the defense resembles patchwork. And not the nice kind. 4-12. I'm not kidding.

Washington Redskins
Thought: I wish I didn't live in Washington during football season.
Vital Player: Donovan McNabb. I wanted this to be someone other than McNabb, but I kept coming back to him. I don't care about Albert Haynesworth. I think he's better served to this team as a free agent. People fail to realize that he's been wholly unproductive in his career, save for his final season in Tennessee, which happened to be a contract year that landed him a $100 million pay-day. McNabb needs to lead this team. Vocally. McNabb has long been one of my least favorite NFL players. He developed into this pseudo-leader in Philly, where he tried real hard to be likable. People who try hard to be likable often wind up being very disliked. In Washington, McNabb needs to be stable. Not funny. He needs to stay healthy and needs to want to win. I personally don't like his vibes so far in Washington. I feel like he's going through the motions.
Best-Case: McNabb is not going through the motions. Devin Thomas decides to be a legitimate pass-catching option. The offensive line keeps McNabb upright and the defense gets by just fine without Albert Haynesworth (or with him. I don't really care.). The Redskins finish 10-6 and snag a Wild Card berth. This city erupts with joy.
Worst-Case: Donovan McNabb doesn't much care about playing football in DC and it shows. He's erratic and inaccurate with his passing. He's lost a step or seven and takes a beating. Rex Grossman is forced into starting and does fairly well, but the rest of the team is awful. The defense is lethargic and can't stop the run again. McNabb gets healthy and takes back the starting job, despite Grossman's good play, and the city revolts against Mike Shannahan. The Redskins finish 4-12 and get to draft Jake Locker or Andrew Luck (I prefer Luck) in the first round in 2011.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New York Giants 10-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 7-9

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Thought: Borrrrring.
Vital Player: Julius Peppers. I know, I had forgotten that he was on the Bears roster too. I also thought he had retired. When was the last time you remember watching Peppers and thinking, "Man, that guy is an elite defender."? Look, 10.5 sacks is nothing to sneeze at. But Peppers has the skill to be a 20 sack guy. Or perhaps had it. He'll need to show that he's got something left in his tank because this defense needs a spark. And I for one don't see Brian Urlacher being that spark.
Best-Case: The Mike Martz-led offense resembles the poor man's version of the 1999 St. Louis Rams (which is pretty darn good). Matt Forte recreates his 2008 rookie season. Brian Urlacher stays healthy for 16 games. And Julius Peppers plays like his hair's on fire. The Bears finish 10-6 and are in the playoff hunt.
Worst-Case: Jay Cutler throws 25+ INT again, Matt Forte can't get out of his own way again, no one steps up at the WR position again, Greg Olsen fails to live up to expectations again, etc. etc. Lovie Smith loses his job mid-way through the season, putting Mike Martz in charge. From there, things get really bad. 3-13.

Detroit Lions
Thought: I tend not to like trendy things, but I kind of like the 2010 Detroit Lions. Just a bit.
Vital Player: Matthew Stafford. The rookie's first season did not go very well. Expectations are higher for 2010 because you're looking at a guy with all the "tools" people think NFL quarterbacks "need." Strong arm. And an ability to move one's legs. Kidding aside, Stafford has some tools to work with on offense. Calvin Johnson and the underrated (perhaps overlooked is a more accurate description) Nate Burleson make up a good 1-2 receiving pair. In the backfield, rookie Jahvid Best is expected to be the team's first dynamic back since Barry Sanders. But it all comes down to what Stafford has improved on since his rookie season. If he is more accurate, the Lions offense could be a force to be reckoned with.
Best-Case: With an improving defense that isn't quite there yet (next season), the offense carries the load and manages to outscore a handful of teams, giving the city of Detroit something to be happy about when it comes to football. 8-8 season.
Worst-Case: Stafford still isn't quite ready and the Lions have a difficult time outscoring anyone. The defense remains one year away. I really don't see Detroit having a large range between best and worst. They seem to be the easiest team to predict. 6-10 season.

Green Bay Packers
Thought: Super Bowl or bust.
Vital Player: Tramon Williams. I'm not trying to be cute. Al Harris and Atari Bigby are starting the season on the PUP list (ineligible for the first 6 weeks because they're physically unable to perform). Williams is filling in for Harris, as he did last year. I have real concerns about Green Bay's secondary without Harris and Bigy. The offense is good enough to outscore any NFL team, but you can't do that for 16 games. Green Bay's front 7 will need the back four to play above their heads in the absence of Bigby and Harris.
Best-Case: Super Bowl champions. They dominate the regular season and never miss a beat in the playoffs. 14-2 and Brett Favre who?
Worst-Case: Under an offseason and training camps of great expectations, the Packers completely fail to live up to them. The defense looks like they did against Arizona in the playoffs last season and Aaron Rodgers just isn't quite as efficient as he was in 2009. 8-8 season. One of the most disappointing outcomes in recent memory in sports. Because this team has the potential to be very very special.

Minnesota Vikings
Thought: Ah, these are the fellas with that Brett Favre feller, right?
Vital Player: Percy Harvin. You want pressure? Fill the void left by Sidney Rice, and while you're at it, also return kicks/punts, oh and try to fight through those migraines. In your second season. And all the while, keep reminding yourself that you need to win one for Brett Favre.
Best-Case: The defense is tops in the NFL. Adrian Peterson stops fumbling the ball and Favre puts up a solid season (not elite like last year). The Vikings come out of the gate with a win over the Saints on opening night and feel vindication. That drives them through the season to a division title (12-4) and a magical Brett Favre final season Super Bowl title.
Worst-Case: Brett Favre isn't so great. Percy Harvin misses significant time due to headaches. And the defense, while good, isn't elite. The Vikings limp to a 9-7 season and fight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.

Actual Predicted Results
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Minnesota 10-6
3. Detroit 7-9
4. Chicago 5-11

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Thought: They don't strike me as getting better or worse. Just existing. That is never a good thing.
Vital Player: Michael Turner. He needs a bounce-back year in 2010 more than any other player and his team needs it just as much. Matt Ryan did not show many flashes of brilliance last year. He doesn't seem to be the type of QB to carry a team. He needs Turner if the Falcons are going to be successful.
Best-Case: This team is the bizarro Detroit Lions. I have no idea what to expect from the Falcons. Last year they were in my predicted NFC title game. The best I see for Atlanta this year is a division title and a first round playoff loss. 10-6.
Worst-Case: Nothing goes right for Atlanta. Matt Ryan shows no progression. Michael Turner 2010 resembles Turner 2009 rather than 2008. And the defense is just so-so. Like last year. And the year before that. 6-10. Mike Smith's job becomes someone else's.

Carolina Panthers
Thought: Call me crazy, but I think they're not so bad.
Vital Player: Matt Moore. I wanted to take someone from the defensive side of the ball, but there are so many people who need to be good over there, that I kept coming back to Moore. I like Moore. I don't love him. He put up good numbers at the end of 2009. Unlike a few of the NFL's less famous QBs, Moore has a running game to rely on with Jon Stewart (not that one) and DeAngelo Williams. At the receiver spot, they need something from Dwyane Jarrett or rookie Brandon LaFell. If Moore gets some help, he can be a top 12 NFL QB. And that would do a world of good in Charlotte.
Best-Case: The offense is consistent and balanced and the defense (a veritable "who is that guy" crew) bands together in Julius Pepper's absence and plays well. They finish 10-6 and compete for a division title.
Worst-Case: Matt Moore isn't quite the answer and Jimmy Clausen has to play a year or two too early. The defense produces as you would expect them to when looking at their names. John Fox's last season is 2010. The Panthers finish 5-11.

New Orleans Saints
Thought: If I have to hear the phrase "Who Dat?" one more time, I'm going to scream.
Vital Player: Drew Brees. You know, not that I don't like Chase Daniel and all.
Best-Case: They stop celebrating their Super Bowl title at exactly 7:59:59 on Thursday, pummel the Vikings and coast to an easy division title and another Super Bowl championship. 14-2.
Worst-Case: Have you ever seen a team celebrate their championship as much as this team has? I'm a little put-off by it. I was very happy for New Orleans and the Saints. But I'm preconditioned to the New England Patriots method of celebration, whereby you celebrate by trying to win another one and leaving the parades and talk shows and Jon Gruden "hamming-it-up for the camera Sportscenter specials" to the Ochocincos of our football culture. Instead, everywhere I look I see Drew Brees and I keep hearing people say he's the best QB in the NFL and I just don't get it. And if you're reading this thinking that this is a pretty "worst-case scenario," I would remind you that I haven't even talked about the actual 2010 season. 8-8 and a world full of disappointment in New Orleans and the sports-writer narrative world.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thought: I'm about to either look stupid or like a genius.
Vital Player: Carnell Williams. We didn't get a chance to see much good from QB Josh Freeman last year. He played in 10 games, threw 10 TDs and 18 INT. His QB rating was under 60.0. In the preseason, Freeman was throwing the ball really well before a thumb injury slowed him down. Tampa has cleaned house a bit this offseason. Freeman has some young guys to get familiar with on the outside. What he needs more than anything though, is a healthy Carnell Williams. A healthy Williams gives Freeman a much easier job as he transitions to full-time starter. And it could do a world of good in Tampa.
Best-Case: On the heels of a somewhat easy starting schedule (Browns, Panthers, and Roethlisberger-less Steelers), the Bucs start 2010 with a 3-0 record. They ride that momentum out of an early bye and become the darlings of the Sunday pregame show talk. The Bucs finish 2010 with a winning record (9-7) and fall just short of a shocking playoff berth.
Worst-Case: The Bucs are wholly inexperienced and I'm some sort of slack-jawed yokel who doesn't deserve a blog that is read by 3 people (one of whom is me). They finish 3-13 because they have a really young defense that was awful against the run last season and is no better this year.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New Orleans 10-6
2. Carolina 9-7
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Atlanta 6-10

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Thought: What a difference a QB makes.
Vital Player: Derek Anderson. When Derek Anderson is your vital player, you know that either you're pretty good everywhere else. Or you're just awful and I'm trying to end this as quickly as possible. The Cardinals are the former. However, bad QB play is so contagious, it sometimes affects your defense. Like, almost always. If Anderson struggles, look out for the free-fall. And may I add that they're real excited in Arizona about Max Hall as their QB of the future. That's not even a joke. Trust me, as someone who watches more college football than you do, Max Hall never looked like an elite college QB, nevermind an NFL QB.
Best-Case: Remember that year that Derek Anderson was real good and made it to a Pro Bowl? Maybe he can do that again and the Cardinals finish 11-5 and win the West and get eliminated in their first playoff game?
Worst-Case: An NFL team enters an NFL season with Derek Anderson as their best option at Quarterback. That team, a two-time defending division champion, doesn't do a great job of defending their division title. 5-11.

San Francisco 49ers
Thought: The division title is yours, Niners.
Vital Player: Alex Smith. With a defense this good, it's all about the offense and that starts with Smith. There is no safety net on this roster. No Shaun Hill. There is David Carr and Troy Smith. If Alex Smith fails, so too will the 49ers. He has the elite running back (Frank Gore), very good tight end (Vernon Davis), and a couple of quality receivers (Michael Crabtree, and Josh Morgan). The offensive line is improving with rookies Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. It's all up to Smith. He's had the time to develop. Now he needs to perform.
Best-Case: Alex Smith gets it and everyone else does like they should. The 49ers win the West by 4 games, sailing to an easy 12-4 season and a run at the NFC championship game.
Worst-Case: Alex Smith is not very good and Frank Gore is forced to carry the load. He gets hurt and they're left with Anthony "2.9 YPC" Dixon running the ball. The defense manages to keep them in every game and they finish 9-7, fighting for that last playoff spot.

Seattle Seahawks
Thought: Mike Williams is the number 1 receiver for an NFL team.
Vital Player: Mike Williams. I don't buy it. Just don't. Name me the last epic first round bust who turned into a team leader. Good luck with that. Is Mike Williams a precedent setter? We're about to find out.
Best-Case: I can't bring myself to be rosy. This is a bad football team. If they prove me wrong, I'll eat my crow. But this team has 4-12 written all over it. A joke. They're good at absolutely zero positions. They have a couple players. That doesn't win you football games.
Worst-Case:They're even worse than above. 1-15. An abject disaster. I don't know who Pete Carroll thinks he is, but a football team constructionist he is not.

Saint Louis Rams
Thought: Well, at least they're building a team the right way. For the opposite, see above.
Vital Player: They're not going anywhere this year. Let's just hope that Sam Bradford stays healthy.
Best-Case: Sam Bradford starts all 16 games, struggles a little bit, but stays healthy. They finish 5-11 and continue building for the future.
Worst-Case: A young and inexperienced offensive line gets their young and inexperienced QB seriously hurt. A young and inexperienced defense is not very good. 1-15. An abject disaster, but one that you can at least feel bad for.

Actual Predicted Results
1. San Francisco 11-5
2. Arizona 6-10
3. St. Louis 3-13
4. Seattle 2-14

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round: Minnesota (6) over New York Giants (3), Dallas (5) over New Orleans (4)
Divisional Round: Green Bay (1) over Minnesota (6), Dallas (5) over San Francisco (2)
NFC Championship: Green Bay (1) over Dallas (5)

Green Bay is the better version of the Baltimore Ravens from the AFC. The Packers are quite balanced. Ryan Grant may not be an elite RB, but he will do enough to take some of the weight off of Aaron Rodgers' shoulders. Not that Rodgers can't handle it. The Packers have a solid young defense that I think will respond well to the whoppin' that the Cardinals put on them in the wild card game last season. No one in the NFC is as solidly dynamic as the Packers, not even the defending champs.

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay over Baltimore (31-14). Two years in a row with the Packers for me. Last year, I was going out on a limb. This year, they're for real.

AWARDS
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
NFL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Mathews
NFL Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary

NFL's Worst Team: Seattle Seahawks
Best Subplot: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ending Brett Favre's career.
Most Overrated Team: New Orleans Saints
Most Underrated Team: Cleveland Browns

The Best Regular Season Games (in my opinion):
Week 1: Baltimore at New York Jets (Minnesota at New Orleans not bad)
Week 2: New Orleans at San Francisco (New York Giants at Indy and New England at New York Jets, also good)
Week 3: Dallas at Houston
Week 4: Washington at Philadelphia (McNabb's return)
Week 5: Minnesota at New York Jets
Week 6: Baltimore at New England
Week 7: Minnesota at Green Bay
Week 8: Green Bay at New York Jets
Week 9: Dallas at Green Bay
Week 10: Dallas at New York Giants
Week 11: Indianapolis at New England
Week 12: New Orleans at Dallas
Week 13: San Francisco at Green Bay
Week 14: New York Giants at Minnesota
Week 15: Green Bay at New England
Week 16: New York Giants at Green Bay
Week 17: Cincinnati at Baltimore

And finally, Tim Tebow's final line after this season: 3 of 8 passing, 45 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT 30 Carries, 70 Yards, 3 TD

Enjoy the season!